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Rookie Fantasy Preview: WR Justin Blackmon
Posted on May 17, 2012 by Brad Berreman
Justin Blackmon was regarded as the top wide receiver prospect available in this year's NFL Draft, and the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Blackmon with the fifth overall pick after trading up in the top-10 of the first round.
Guaranteed Money: Inside Look At NFL Players With Voidable Contracts
Posted on May 16, 2012 by Anthony King
“At the end of a season, if performance bonuses previously included in a Team's Team Salary but not actually earned exceed performance bonuses actually earned but not previously included in Team Salary, an amount shall be added to the Team's Salary Cap for the next League Year equaling the amount, if any, by which such overage exceeds the Team's Room under the Salary Cap at the end of a season.”
Wow, just enough double-speak to make your head explode, right? Needless to say, NFL contracts are not always what they appear to be and teams use every trick in the book to make sure they are not left holding the (dollar-sign) bag of a bad contract. As seen with the release of Peyton Manning earlier this off-season, his 5 year, $90 million contract only lasted for a one spin around the calendar. Thanks to his $28 million option bonus, it made more fiscal sense for the Colts to just release him, rather than pay him that money. In the NFL, a player’s contract is only as good as the guaranteed money, and there are a whole host of players who are about to be looking down the same contract barrel that claimed Manning’s Colts’ career.
James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers: This outspoken linebacker’s time in the Steel City may be coming to a close thanks to 2012 being the end of the $20 million guaranteed portion of his contract. In 2009, Harrison signed a 6 year, $51.75 million contract, but unfortunately for him, the biggest dollar amounts come in his last two years. If kept, the Steelers would owe Harrison $10.658 million and $11.69 million in 2013 and 2014. For a 34 year old linebacker whose production just went from 100 tackles in 2010 to 59 tackles in 2011, the writing may be on the wall.
Kevin Kolb, QB, Arizona Cardinals: After taking the calculated risk in trading for Kevin Kolb in 2011, the Arizona Cardinals may soon cut their losses and move in another direction. Kolb signed a 6 year, $65 million contract to play in the desert, but since his signing bonus was $10 million, and his 2011 base salary was $2 million, his guaranteed money is already done. Kolb will play 2012 for $1 million in base salary, but then he jumps to $9 million for 2013 and $10 for years 2014 through 2016 – he would have to have a breakout year this season to justify that kind of money. Kolb threw for 1,955 yards, 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 2011.
Carson Palmer, QB, Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer will not be an Oakland Raider in 2013. Palmer will get a nice restructuring bonus of $11.65 million this season so the Raiders can drop his base salary to only $825,000 for 2012, but after that, his base contract balloons to $13 million and $15 million in 2013 and 2014. That’s Tom Brady money for a quarterback who had three more picks than touchdowns last year. I’m sure Pete Carroll already has the No. 9 Seahawks jersey waiting for him.
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson demanded to be paid top running back dollars in 2011. He had a lengthy holdout to start training camp last season before the Titans gave in and gave him a 6 year, $55.260 million contract. In return, Johnson gave them his worst statistical year of his career where he posted lows in yards, average and touchdowns. There is a small silver lining for Tennessee in that they might only be on the hook for three years worth of underachieving. His $10 million signing bonus is spread over the first five years of his deal. That coupled with the $8 million he’ll make in 2012 and the $10 million in 2013 means his guaranteed money will be done in only two more seasons. Unless he turns it around this years and returns to the form of the back who rushed for 2,006 yards in 2009, Chris Johnson will not make it to the second half of his deal.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I have to tip my hat to Vincent Jackson. The man sat out to get paid, he got paid and then managed to get a contract that flips the script on the type of back-loaded deals teams try to give players to ensure they won’t have to pay their most profitable years. Jackson’s deal with Tampa has the two biggest salary years of his contract being paid in the first two. He’ll make $11 million (plus a $2 million Roster Bonus) for 2012, and then he gets $13 million in 2013. If anyone has a calculator handy, that equals the $26 million guaranteed money of his contract. So while he may not make it to the last three years of his 5 year, $55,555,555 contract, he made sure he gets his money up front – I wonder if Tampa is required to leave his paychecks on the nightstand.
LaMarr Woodley, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Is 9 sacks worth $700,000 in the NFL? Yes, Woodley’s 2012 base salary is a steal for the kind of stats he puts up -- but is 9 sacks worth $13.24 million? This is question the Steelers will have to answer as their star linebacker’s salary is about to go sky-high in 2013. Woodley will jump up to being the second highest paid linebacker in the NFL when his salary cap hit will average $12.21 million over the final four years of his contract. Since Woodley’s money is not guaranteed, he may turn into a salary cap casualty after this season.
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers: You read right, the Steelers are about to have a lot of big decisions to make. All three of their linebackers are set to get huge raises as Timmons also moves up with a cap hit of $8.6, $10.03, $10.78 and $10.3 million for each of his final four years respectively. At only 25 years old, Timmons is the youngest, and cheapest, or the three, so he should be safe for now. The real question is who Timmons will be playing beside in the future. Pittsburgh had better win now because, assuming they pay Mike Wallace, Rashard Mendenhall will also be a free agent next season, and Big Ben’s salary is about to hit their cap hard, to the tune of about $20 million per. Some of these players are going to be left without a chair once the music ends.
Rookie Fantasy Football Preview: Bengals WR Mohamed Sanu
Posted on May 15, 2012 by Brad Berreman
Mohamed Sanu used a productive junior season at Rutgers, with 115 receptions for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns, to put himself into the upper tier of wide receiver prospects in the 2012 NFL Draft. But he ran just a 4.67 second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and ultimately did not come off the board until the Cincinnati Bengals selected him in the third round (83rd overall).With the departure of Jerome Simpson via free agency, the Bengals have an opening in the starting lineup at wide receiver opposite A.J. Green. Sanu, along with fellow rookie Marvin Jones and 2010 third round pick Jordan Shipley, are in the mix for the job and whoever earns the role should benefit from the attention Green draws from opposing defenses. Shipley suffered a torn ACL in his left knee early in 2011 and has recently been cleared for full participation in OTAs, and he had a solid rookie season in 2010 with 52 receptions for 600 yards and three touchdowns. In a best case scenario for Cincinnati, Shipley would fit as a slot receiver while the two rookies battle to be the No. 2 wide receiver.
Whoever wins the starting job, assuming one guy definitively does prior to Week 1, will land on the radar of fantasy football owners virtually immediately on draft day.
Let's look at what Sanu brings to the table if he becomes a rookie starter.
The Skinny On Sanu
Sanu has NFL-caliber size (6'2", 211 lbs.), catches the ball confidently with his hands and has a wide catch radius while also showing good body control and awareness. He is also an excellent route runner, with good initial burst, which stands to make him well-suited to working inside the numbers at the next level, since he does not have outstanding timed speed. He was used at a variety of positions in college, on the inside and outside, and the Bengals reportedly tried him at multiple positions during rookie camp. That versatility should work to his advantage and perhaps give him the upper hand in the competition for the starting job over Jones.
Sanu's lack of straight-line speed is a concern, as is the fact he averaged just 10.5 yards per catch in 2011. He compares favorably to former Bengals wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and could serve as a similarly tough, reliable target for quarterback Andy Dalton like Houshmandzadeh was for former Bengals' quarterback Carson Palmer.
Fantasy Analysis
Sanu's fantasy value as a rookie in 2012 is tied to his ability to earn the No. 2 wide receiver spot, though he could play a lot even if he is not named the starter immediately. He is not draftable outside of keeper leagues at this point in time, but if he becomes a starter he may be worth a late flier in deep league drafts and auctions. Sanu's value is greatest in PPR leagues, as he is unlikely to add a lot in terms of yardage and touchdowns without a nice catch total.
2012 Rookie Fantasy Preview: WR Alshon Jeffery
Posted on May 14, 2012 by Shawn Kopf
The Chicago Bears' focus this offseason was to upgrade their offense and they did a great job through free agency and the draft. They acquired Brandon Marshall on March 13th after trading the Dolphins two third-round draft picks. Then, they traded up in the second round of the draft to nab South Carolina stud wideout Alshon Jeffery.
Fantasy Football 2012: Deep Sleeper Alert-Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson
Posted on May 14, 2012 by Brad Berreman
The Seattle Seahawks selected University of Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, as his perceived physical limitations (5'11" tall) led to him falling down the draft some. The Seahawks definitely took the best player available at that stage, and it looked like Wilson would spend his rookie season on the bench while incumbent Tavaris Jackson and free agent signee Matt Flynn battled for the starting job during the preseason. The fact Flynn was signed to a lucrative contract-three years, $19.5 million ($10 million guaranteed) would seem to give him the lead in any competition for the starting job,
Contract Year: NFL Offensive Players With Something To Prove
Posted on May 11, 2012 by Anthony King
I think the great philosopher, Randall Gene Moss, said it best when he poetically versed, “Straight Cash Homie.”
Sadly, players’ contracts do sometimes have a big impact on effort and results, and once again, the 2012 season will bring in a laundry list of stars going into the obligatory contract year. Here are the offensive players who may have a little more incentive to produce a great season.
QB
Matt Schaub – So, after back-to-back 4,000 yard seasons in 2009 and 2010, and amassing an average QB rating of 93.46 in your five seasons in Houston, the front office still momentarily batted around the idea of replacing you with a quarterback six years your senior, who was just coming off multiple neck surgeries. Schaub will make $7.15 million in 2012, which is on the low end of what his yearly numbers will bear on the open market. Houston will likely have to move him up into the low double-digits to keep him around, and maybe a little extra to make up for the Peyton Manning insult.
Joe Flacco – Like Schaub, Joe Flacco is on the lower side of the starting quarterback spectrum, only making $6.76 million in base salary, however, unlike the Texans’ gunslinger, Flacco does not nearly have the stats to demand a big leap into a higher tax bracket. With a lower passer rating than Kevin Kolb and more interceptions than Matt Moore, Flacco’s raise will not come via the box score. In only four years in the league, Flacco has five playoff victories, and was a Lee Evans' drop away from leading the Ravens to Super Bowl XLVI – that will be where he makes his money.
RB
Michael Turner – Michael Turner has been a workhorse for the Atlanta Falcons. Turner finished 3rd in rushing each of the last two seasons, and carried the ball more than 300 times each year. However, Turner just turned the dreaded 3-0 in February, which has routinely been the benchmark for a running back's inevitable decline in productivity. At only $5 million in base salary for 2012, Turner is still something of a bargain when compared to backs like Chris Johnson or DeAngelo Williams. The Falcons will have to weigh Turner's rise in price tag against his 30 year old legs, but another top 3 rushing season from “The Burner” may help to ease Atlanta’s mind when pulling out their checkbook.
Reggie Bush – Reggie Bush has gone from a Draft Bust to Reality Star boyfriend and now has settled into a decent NFL back. After playing the flex-back position in New Orleans for five seasons, the Saints felt his salary was too much to pay for a running back who was perceived to not be able to carry the load. Bush caught on with Miami and quickly stole the starting role from rookie Daniel Thomas. He then went on to rush for his first 1,000+ yard season of his career, and posted a 5.0 per carry average. Bush’s $4.5 million salary is actually turning out to be less of an overpayment than most initially thought. Bush may be the one back who truly needs another great season, in this his contract year, in order to get the salary he wants in 2013.
Maurice Jones Drew – Guess MJD’s 2012 salary? Here’s a hint, it’s less than Reggie Bush. At only $4.45 million for the NFL’s leading rusher, the Jacksonville Jaguars are getting quite a deal. But all that will change in 2013 when Jones-Drew will demand top running back money. At 5-7, durability is always an issue for one of the league’s smallest backs, but MJD has never played less than 14 games in a season, including at full 16 in 2011 where he carried a league high 343 times. The Jags missed out on getting Tebow to Northern Florida; I doubt they’ll let MJD go.
2012 Rookie Fantasy Preview: Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck
Posted on May 09, 2012 by Brad Berreman
Andrew Luck enters the NFL with the high expectations attached to being the No. 1 overall pick, as the Indianapolis Colts start a full-on rebuilding effort and Luck himself gets to succeed Peyton Manning, who was released this offseason.
With the league becoming more pass-happy in recent years, rookie quarterbacks can offer something to fantasy football owners, as Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford have shown over the last couple years.
Let's break down what kind of impact fantasy owners can expect from Andrew Luck in 2012:
Luck himself seems to have the physical skills and intangibles to have some immediate success, and new Colts' offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has experience working with a elite level NFL quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger when he served as offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers from 2007-2011. Arians also served as quarterbacks coach for Indianapolis from 1998-2000, which were Manning's first three NFL seasons. So the offensive structure is likely to be in place for Luck to make a quick adjustment to the pro level.
The Indianapolis offensive line should show improvement in 2012, as healthy seasons from 2011 draft picks Anthony Castanzo and Ben Ijalana will help that cause even with the free agent departure of center Jeff Saturday and the retirement of long-time right tackle Ryan Diem. So pass protection should not be a major issue for Luck, as long as everyone stays on the field.
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