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It's Been a Nice Run
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Last Updated: Nov 11, 2008 4:19 PM |
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According to Internet Systems Consortium, the number of Internet hosts globally was relatively flat until about 1997 when a steady increase began. By 2000, the number of hosts (and by my flimsy deduction, Internet users) spread like wildfire for myriad reasons. One of the tangents from this boom in usage was a drastic increase in the number of participants in fantasy sports thanks to the dramatic ease of league operation the Internet brought with it.
Because of this new way to compete with friends, many folks began paying closer attention to fantasy football in the late 1990s and early 2000s – with that number only increasing in recent years. But a decade after what we can accurately call the baby boom of fantasy football, many owners are now starting to see the end of the life cycle of the first fantasy studs they have come to know and love. Yes, good players come and go on an annual basis, but the best of the best remain at or near the top of your cheat sheet every season – usually until the flame has flickered its last – just because they played a big part in your team's success somewhere along the line.
But all good things come to an end, and 2008 has seen the fantasy swan song of more than the usual amount of studs. It's with a heavy heart and misty eyes I declare to the fine gentlemen below, “it's been a nice run…”
QB Marc Bulger, Rams
Mike Martz's “Greatest Show on Turf launched several strong fantasy careers, including Bulger's. From 2002 to 2006, the former sixth-round draft pick never passed for less than 256 yards per game while throwing 95 touchdowns to just 59 interceptions in 60 games during that stretch. Unfortunately, Bulger's health has taken a turn for the worse in the last four years thanks in part to an increasingly porous offensive line that seems intent on sending Marc into early retirement. The line is still horrible this season and Bulger's body is showing signs of the consistent beatings he's endured, leaving him unable to produce statistics warranting any fantasy consideration. Marc saw his quarterback rating dip below 92.9 just once in his first five seasons, but he's currently following up a career-worst 70.3 rating with a 73.5 while his yards per attempt the last two years are a full yard less than his career average and by far his career worsts. Bulger signed a six-year, $65-million contract extension through the 2013 season last summer, but now he's hardly worth a dollar in fantasy auctions. It's been a quick fall from grace that obviously even the Rams didn't see coming, but a recovery seems unlikely with the Rams and Bulger both trending in the wrong direction.
RB Edgerrin James, Cardinals
The life expectancy of running backs for fantasy purposes is understandably short. The best workhorses take a worse pounding than a guy with a lisp in prison, so stud backs are the most coveted in all of fantasy land. James fit the bill perfectly as a Colt, putting up five seasons with more than 1,200 rushing yards – four with more than rushing 1,500 yards – and 64 rushing scores in seven years in Indianapolis. That's not to mention the 356 catches for 2,839 yards and 11 touchdowns in the receiving game. Sure, part of the success was predicated on an explosive Indy offense, so we knew when James left for greener pastures in Arizona (because of money, not more vegetation) that his digits would take a hit. But what followed was a huge dip in yards per game, yards per carry and receptions as the Cardinals developed one of the league's most potent passing attacks. Now in his third season with the red birds, James has completely lost a grip on the starting job to rookie Tim Hightower, who appears to get better with every game while even becoming a factor in the passing game. Although it would stand to reason after his career in Indy that James might have been better served if he, too, were given a chance to catch the ball out of the backfield, it's too late. Now 30, James' job is gone, and with it has gone his ability to help fantasy teams.
RB Rudi Johnson, Lions
Perhaps no player on this list has seen a more abrupt ending to fantasy stardom than Johnson. Once Corey Dillon got hurt and then left Cincinnati, Johnson went on to average 1,294.5 rushing yards per season from 2003 through 2006 with 45 touchdowns. Few backs could boast Rudi's consistency, leaving him a first-round fantasy pick as recent as 2007. But a hamstring injury forced him to miss five games while rushing for just 2.9 yards per carry in the 11 he played – leaving Rudi expendable after more hamstring issues plagued him during training camp in 2008. The Detroit Lions picked him up off the scrap heap, but Detroit is in of itself a scrap heap to begin with. Plus, rookie runner Kevin Smith has been one of the few Motor City Kitties to look like he's a capable NFL player this season, leaving Rudi to simply fade from the consciousness of the fantasy football universe. Johnson is now less than a year from his 30th birthday – that magic year that usually brings the demise of even the best runners – so a last gasp from Rudi is about as likely as a Detroit winning streak.
RB Ahman Green, Texans
Noticing a trend here? It seems that the teams for which running back studs produced big numbers for are selling the stock high by not locking them up to huge deals, instead letting other desperate teams shell out big bucks for backs a shell of their former selves. Green, like Johnson and James, has seen his fantasy stardom come to a screeching halt in a new uniform after a string of six 1,000-plus yard seasons in seven years in Green Bay. Green was a model of durability from 1998 through 2004, missing just five games in that stretch. But Green missed 23 games in the next three years and has already sat out three contests this season. Green's poor health has kept us from getting a true glimpse of this faded star has left, but Steve Slaton's emergence as a Texans rookie has virtually guaranteed we won't.
RB Fred Taylor, Jaguars
Taylor is an exception to the aforementioned backs because he's remained a staple in the Jacksonville backfield throughout his career. Taylor looked to be hitting a wall in 2005 when he rushed for just three scores and 4.1 yards per carry, but got a career reprieve with the addition of Maurice Jones-Drew. Yes, the man to eventually replace him actually took enough burden off Fragile Fred's shoulders to make him a 1,000-yard rusher with five touchdowns the last two seasons, but the former first-round draft pick is finally exiting stage right. He still has five more carries this season than his counterpart, but is averaging a career-worst 3.5 yards-per-carry. Plus, Jones-Drew is getting much more work in the passing game while on pace for a career-best reception total. Taylor figures to continue getting less of the workload until he hangs up his cleats for good, meaning his service to the fantasy football community is officially over. The torch has been passed to Mo-Jo.
WR Torry Holt, Rams
Holt's epitaph reads similar to that of Bulger. The two are inextricably linked because of their reliance on each other to produce fantasy points. Holt has been the better of the two fantasy players because he has thrived even when Bulger has been hurt, but even he can't overcome the lack of talent around him. Now 32-years old, Holt is about to have his streak of 90-plus receptions end at six seasons and his streak of 1,100-plus-yard seasons end at eight. Holt's 39.1 yards per game is a career worst and his first time below 74 yards per game since his rookie season in 1999. Holt can become a free agent after next season, but by then it could be too late. His knees became troublesome last year and by the time he can land on a roster with talent he will be 34. Not that fantasy digits can't be produced at that age, but his days of being a stud receiver will be far behind him.
WR Marvin Harrison, Colts
Holt could very well be just a couple years behind the pace of Harrison, who has been a Colt since being taken in the first round of the 1996 draft. Marv put together a string of eight straight 80-plus reception, 1,000-plus yard, 10-plus touchdown seasons that ended when he played only five games due to injury in 2007. Reggie Wayne stepped into the No. 1 receiver role while Anthony Gonzalez proved more than capable as a No. 2 or slot option. Harrison has proven to be healthier in 2008, but he's simply not needed as much in Indy's offense. Plus he's 36-years old and allegedly shot a guy this offseason, so there doesn't appear to be much more upside for Harrison. Thanks for the memories, Marv.
WR Javon Walker, Raiders
Talk about wasted talent! I'm not sure if Walker qualifies as a true stud because of a lack of consistency, but he certainly has (or had) the same tools as the aforementioned superstars. But life has handed Walker lemons ever since his breakout season with the Packers in 2004, and instead of making lemonade he's just made that sour face that people make when they suck on lemons. First, Walker ruined his knee during the first game of 2005 after caving to Brett Favre peer pressure to end a contract holdout. Walker started to find his groove again after signing with Denver the next year, but ended the year by holding his teammate Darrant Williams – who died in his arms from gunshot wounds. Walker hasn't been the same since, suffering injuries the next season, getting his face beaten in this summer in Vegas, then playing in godforsaken Oakland. It's turned into a sad story for the former Florida State standout, a tale that offers some perspective for those interested only in digits people produce rather than the people themselves.
WR Joey Galloway, Buccaneers
Galloway has been the fantasy equivalent of the Energizer bunny. No, he's not pink and he doesn't play the drums. Instead, Galloway has been a legit fantasy contributor for much of his prolific career that began as a first-round draft pick in 1995. Galloway started his career with four excellent fantasy seasons, was mired in mediocrity for much of the next six seasons, then strung together three more 1,000-yard campaigns with a combined 23 touchdowns for the Bucs. But injuries have finally caught up with the old-timer, and now that he's back in the mix it appears that Tampa Bay has moved on without him. Antonio Bryant responded to Galloway's absence with what is turning into a career year, while Ike Hilliard, Michael Clayton and a bevy of tight ends have stolen looks from Joey even when he's on the field. Galloway turns 37 later this month, so no longer does he have the wheels that have paid the beelz (I tried to make bills rhyme with wheels. It didn't work). He'll likely hit a home run play or two every handful of games until he finally retires, but his time as a fantasy stud has unfortunately come to an end.
Almost done…
There are another few guys who are honorable mentions on this list – players whose best days are likely behind them and have little left to offer fantasy owners.
RB Deuce McAllister, Saints
Give Deuce credit for bouncing back from major knee troubles, but it's obvious he can no longer carry the load. This team belongs to Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, leaving few fantasy scraps for McAllister before he retires.
WR Isaac Bruce, 49ers
If only it were age against the 36-year old former Ram. Unfortunately, it's also a slew of bumps and bruises the last three years and a stable of underwhelming quarterbacks by the Bay. Bruce has admirably managed 51.4 yards per game and has four touchdowns in nine contests this season, but the door is closing on this former stud.
TE Jeremy Shockey, Saints
It appears as though teams are starting to figure out that Shockey isn't as good as he says he is. The talented former first-rounder had a solid six years in New York, but his attitude and injuries finally caught up with him in 2007. All the Giants could do without him was win the Super Bowl. Now in New Orleans, he's already struggling with injuries and getting into verbal sparring matches with the guy responsible for throwing the ball. Meanwhile, Billy Miller seems more than happy to take advantage of a pass-happy offense. There's still time for Shockey to turn things around – but his ego may not allow it.
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