Strength of Schedule Analysis – Quarterbacks

By Mike Lietz

There are several valuable applications for strength of schedule analysis. One is staking out backups with favorable match-ups to pencil into fantasy lineups when your studs have a bye. You should always start your studs as they can generally handle a tough defense. This is useful for deciding which marginal stars to potentially avoid who have a tough road, especially down the stretch when you need the most production to win your league. For example, you may think twice about drafting David Garrard when you see that he does not have a favorable match-up after Week 13, and has a pair of tough games in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at Indianapolis) and 16 (versus Washington). On the flipside, it could be advantageous to stash a guy like Matt Cassel, as Kansas City has two soft match-ups in Week 15 and 16. That point will be discussed in more detail below.

On the chart, the favorable match-ups are highlighted in green, while the difficult contests are in red. Neutral match-ups are left uncolored, and the byes are in black.   

1 Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins – McNabb will have a great chance to excel in his first campaign with the Redskins, as they by far hold the easiest schedule with nine favorable match-ups and just two difficult ones in Week 2 versus Houston and Week 6 against Indianapolis. So while the Redskins lack the wide array of weapons that McNabb had at his disposal in Philadelphia, the cupcake schedule should help in his bid to remain among the top quarterbacks in the fantasy world.

2 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – The Packers went 11-5 in 2009, yet still have a great schedule for the new season with eight favorable contests and four tough ones. Most of their brutal match-ups come in the first half of the year as well, with just one coming past Week 8. The elite Rodgers looks to be among the safest picks among fantasy quarterbacks, especially when you also factor in the Packers' upgrade along the offensive line with first-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga.

3 Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys claimed the NFC East title last year with an 11-5 mark, but lucked out with a great schedule for 2010 with eight favorable outings and five difficult ones. Miles Austin joined the elite class among receivers last year and the club made a needed upgrade over the inconsistent Roy Williams in the No. 2 spot with first-round draft pick Dez Bryant, and it would not be surprising to see Romo come close to his gaudy 2007 numbers, when he fired 36 scoring strikes.  

4 Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings' soft 2010 schedule will give the 40-year-old battle-worn vet some incentive to return for another season, with seven good match-ups and four bad ones. None of those tough match-ups come after Week 13, and Favre gets to face the Bears (who he historically dominates) in Week 15 and the Eagles in Week 16, who surrendered 27 touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks in 2009. It is also worth noting that rehab on his surgically-repaired ankle has been going well.

5 Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – Smith was fairly efficient with the 49ers last year, as he fired 18 touchdown passes and held an 81.5 passer rating over 11 games (10 starts). His chances of success in 2010 will be raised by a weak schedule that holds seven good match-ups and four bad ones. None of those difficult outings come after the bye in Week 9, and he could be worth stashing as a backup, especially with a great match-up against the Rams in fantasy playoff Week 16.

6 Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – As of right now, Edwards is the frontrunner to start at quarterback for the Bills. Edwards has been mediocre since entering the NFL as a third-round draft pick in 2007, but his cause to get his career on the right track will be helped by a nice 2010 slate that holds seven favorable match-ups and just four difficult ones. We are still not advising you to consider adding Edwards as anything more than a deep backup though.

7 Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – Stafford held a dismal 61.0 efficiency rating over 10 starts as a rookie in 2009, but did give a preview of great things to come in Week 11, when he hurled five touchdown passes versus Cleveland. He should make strides in his second campaign with the Lions, and will see a nice schedule with six favorable match-ups and just three tough ones. None of those tough match-ups come after Week 10, and he gets to face Miami in fantasy playoff Week 16, who gave up 23 touchdown passes and nearly 4,000 yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2009. This should quell any doubt of whether or not to target Stafford as a sleeper –- especially when you also factor in the upgrades Detroit made on offense with receiver Nate Burleson, tight end Tony Scheffler and pass-catching rookie running back Jahvid Best.  

8 Eli Manning, New York Giants – The Giants had a disappointing 2009 campaign with an 8-8 record, but Manning quietly set new career highs in passing yards (4,021), touchdown passes (27) and efficiency rating (93.1). And he did it by getting sacked a career-worst 30 times. He looks to be a sneaky pick among starting fantasy quarterbacks for 2010, and his production should remain strong with seven favorable match-ups and just five tough ones. Three of those difficult games come off the board in the first five weeks of the season as well.

9 Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles – Kolb fared very well in his two starts in 2009 as he passed for 718 yards and four touchdowns (versus New Orleans and Kansas City), and we expect him to excel as the successor to Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia -- especially with the help of a favorable slate that features seven good match-ups and five bad ones. Only one difficult outing comes after Week 10, when the Eagles battle the Texans in Week 13.

10 Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers – Moore registered a positive blip on the fantasy radar in 2009, as he fired eight touchdown passes with a strong 98.5 efficiency rating over seven outings (five starts) with the Panthers. The 25-year-old heads into the new year as the Panthers' favorite to start at quarterback, and you have to like his chances to post quality numbers with a schedule that holds seven favorable match-ups and just five difficult ones. He is still admittedly a hard sell though, with second-round draft pick Jimmy Clausen in the picture, and No. 1 receiver Steve Smith currently out of it (for an estimated 10 weeks) due to a broken arm. 

11 Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders – Campbell quietly had a breakthrough campaign with the Redskins in 2009, as he set new career highs in passing yards (3,618), touchdown passes (20) and efficiency rating (86.4). He could be a pleasant surprise in his first year with the Raiders, especially with a favorable schedule of seven good match-ups and five difficult ones. When considering him as a sleeper though, keep in mind that he will face heavy resistance from the rival Broncos in Week 15 and the Colts in Week 16.

12 Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Cutler struggled in his first year with the Bears in 2009 as he fired an NFL-worst 26 interceptions –- but his fantasy stock for 2010 saw a significant boost following the addition of passing guru Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator. The 27-year-old looks to be headed for a good comeback campaign, especially with the benefit of an unimposing schedule that features six favorable match-ups and just four difficult ones.

13 Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – Manning has impressively maintained his status as a stud fantasy quarterback since entering the NFL with the Colts back in 1998, and he shall continue that trend in 2010 with a schedule that holds seven favorable match-ups and six tough ones. He would be worthy of selecting as a No. 1 quarterback even if Indianapolis had one of the most brutal schedules, so this is a bonus.

14 Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – Hasselbeck hasn't been a reliable fantasy quarterback since 2007 due to nagging injuries, but the 34-year-old vet may have at least one more good season left in the tank if he can just stay intact, and Seattle has a manageable schedule to help him with six favorable contests and six difficult ones. Give him a look as a backup.

15 Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals – Leinart is yet to prove he can handle leading the Cardinals as their starting quarterback, but his odds of succeeding will go up with a controllable 2010 schedule that holds six favorable match-ups and six difficult ones. For fantasy purposes, it is just too bad that three of those tough assignments come in the final four weeks of the season, hence lowering his value as a flier.

16 Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – Schaub managed to stay healthy last season, and in turn took his game to the next level with 4,770 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. He should continue to get the job done as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback in 2010, and his schedule isn't too difficult with seven favorable match-ups and seven tough ones. It is a big plus that he gets to face the Titans in Week 15, as they surrendered 4,328 yards and 30 touchdown passes to opposing signal callers in 2009.

17 Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees ranks a close second behind Peyton Manning as the best fantasy quarterback, and he shouldn't hit any rough patches in a smooth 2010 schedule that holds five favorable contests and five tough ones. Three of the good match-ups come down the stretch from Week 11-16 as well.

18 Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – Young got back on our good side after performing well down the stretch with the Titans in 2009, but their schedule could limit his fantasy potential with six good match-ups and seven bad ones. Five of those difficult ones come in the final seven games, but at least Young will get to face the Chiefs in fantasy playoff Week 16. It is also worth noting that Young is unlikely to face a suspension for his misdemeanor assault citation at a Dallas-area strip club.

19 Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – Orton reached new career highs in passing yards (3,802), touchdown passes (21) and efficiency rating (86.8) last season with the Broncos, but he is far from safe as their starting quarterback for 2010, and the club could give Brady Quinn or even first-round draft pick Tim Tebow a chance to play under center if Orton struggles. He won't be a stable option among fantasy quarterbacks, especially with a schedule that holds six favorable match-ups but seven brutal ones. It is also not encouraging that Denver faces rival Oakland in Week 15 and Houston the week after.

20 Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As is the case with most rookie quarterbacks, Freeman had a rough go in 2009, as he chucked 18 interceptions with a poor 59.8 efficiency rating over 10 outings (nine starts). He should improve in his second season, but likely not to the degree of being an effective or trustworthy fantasy option –- especially with a schedule that features six favorable match-ups and eight nasty ones. Five of those tough outings come in the final eight weeks of the season as well.

21 David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Garrard does not make a lot of mistakes, but on the other hand he has only thrown 15 touchdown passes in each of his last two seasons. He remains nothing more than a bye-week filler, and the Jaguars' schedule is not welcoming with eight tough match-ups (and six favorable ones). None of his good outings come after Week 13 either.

22 Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – Rivers has developed into one of the top fantasy quarterbacks, and averages 4,131 passing yards and 31 touchdowns over the last two seasons. The Chargers don't have a great schedule with eight tough match-ups (and six favorable ones), but we are confident that Rivers will step up and continue to take care of business in 2010.

23 Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Sanchez had one of the most memorable seasons for a rookie quarterback in 2009, as he impressively led the Jets to the AFC Championship. He only threw 12 touchdown passes with a dismal 63.0 efficiency rating over 15 starts though, and we don't anticipate him raising his production enough to be a suitable weekly starting option for fantasy leagues –- especially with a schedule that holds just five favorable match-ups and six difficult ones.

24 A.J. Feeley, St. Louis Rams – The Rams will have a difficult schedule with just five favorable match-ups and seven tough ones –- and we wouldn't be recommending Feeley even if they had one of the weakest. Keep in mind that No. 1 draft pick Sam Bradford could be sent into battle as their starter at any given point of the season as well. 

25 Tom Brady, New England Patriots – The Patriots will have a tough road this season with just five good match-ups and seven bad ones –- but two-time Super Bowl MVP Brady shouldn't be shaken. Expect him to consistently stir up strong fantasy numbers for another year in 2010, especially while angling for a lucrative new contract.    

26 Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – Palmer is expected to be healthy for the start of training camp and should benefit from the presence of Antonio Bryant as Chad OchoCinco's new wingman –- but keep in mind that the Bengals only have four favorable match-ups on their schedule, as well as seven tough ones. On a positive note, he will get to face the Browns in fantasy playoff Week 15 with a manageable tilt against the Chargers the week after.  

27 Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins – Henne registered an unimpressive 75.2 efficiency rating during his first year as a starter with the Dolphins last year, and he will be hard-pressed to emerge as a viable fantasy quarterback in 2010 with a tough schedule that holds just four favorable contests and seven difficult ones. Don't fall into the trap of reaching for Henne in drafts based solely on the presence of receiver Brandon Marshall.

28 Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan should continue to make strides in his third NFL season, but his potential to truly break out could be hindered by a horrible schedule that features just four good match-ups and seven bad ones. Don't target the young signal caller any higher than as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback.

29 Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs – Cassel has the talent to be an efficient leader in his second season with the Chiefs, but a tough schedule will be working against him with just four favorable match-ups and eight nasty ones. He is still worth consideration as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback though, especially with two of his good match-ups coming in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (versus Tennessee).

30 Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns – Nobody expects Delhomme to regain his status as a starter-caliber fantasy quarterback with the talent-deprived Browns, and a dreadful schedule of just four good match-ups and eight terrible ones will make a bad situation even worse. He won't even be worth stashing as a flier with games against the Bengals in Week 15 and Ravens in Week 16.

31 Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – Flacco made strides in his second pro campaign in 2009, with 3,613 passing yards and 21 touchdown passes, but he will have to work extra hard to truly break out in 2010 with a nasty schedule that features just four favorable match-ups and eight difficult ones. At least one of those good outings comes in fantasy playoff Week 16 at rival Cleveland. We wouldn't shy away from targeting Flacco as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but it is advisable to draft a quality backup, preferably one with a better schedule.

32 Ben Roethlisberger/Byron Leftwich, Pittsburgh Steelers – Roethlisberger will start the new season serving a 4-to-6 game suspension for violating the NFLs personal conduct policy, and his fantasy outlook looks even more bleak as the Steelers hold the most brutal schedule with just five good match-ups and nine bad ones. It is also worth noting that two of those favorable match-ups will come in the first four weeks, and they have just one favorable game from Week 8 to 17. There won't be any benefit to drafting Byron Leftwich as Roethlisberger's replacement, and Big Ben is not really worth stashing outside of deeper leagues either.