Strength of Schedule Analysis – Wide Receivers

By Mike Lietz

There are several valuable applications for strength of schedule analysis. One is staking out backups with favorable match-ups to pencil into fantasy lineups when your studs have a bye. You should always start your studs as they can generally handle a tough defense. This is useful for deciding which marginal stars to potentially avoid who have a tough road, especially down the stretch when you need the most production to win your league. For example, you may think twice about drafting Eddie Royal when you see that he does not have a favorable match-up after Week 13, and has a pair of tough games in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at rival Oakland) and 16 (versus Houston). On the flipside, it could be advantageous to stash a guy like Nate Burleson, as Detroit has two soft match-ups in Week 15 and 16. That point will be discussed in more detail below.  

On the chart, the favorable match-ups are highlighted in green, while the difficult contests are in red. Neutral match-ups are left uncolored, and the byes are in black. 

1 Carolina Panthers – The Panthers hold the weakest slate for fantasy wide receivers, with seven favorable match-ups and just three difficult ones. This is good news for speed demon Steve Smith, assuming he makes a successful comeback from his broken leg. With no tough battles after Week 12, Dwayne Jarrett and rookies Armanti Edwards or Brandon Lafell could register a positive blip on the fantasy radar in crunch time as well –- but we cannot recommend stashing any of that unproven trio at this time.  

2 Green Bay Packers – Greg Jennings failed to perform up to high expectations last season (68-1,113-4), but he will have a golden opportunity to regain his stud status in 2010 with a great schedule that holds six favorable match-ups and just three difficult ones. None of the tough ones come after Week 9 either, which could bode well for the value of 35-year-old vet Donald Driver, who has been consistent with averages of 81 receptions, 1,140 yards and just under six touchdowns over his last six campaigns. James Jones and Jordy Nelson both have some upside, but we wouldn't target either as a flier going solely by Green Bay's soft schedule.

3 Dallas Cowboys – Miles Austin joined the elite class among fantasy receivers last year, and should stay there in 2010 with a weak schedule of six good match-ups and just three bad ones. You should also like that the Cowboys have a neutral match-up in fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus Washington) and 16 (at Arizona). We still don't like Roy Williams to be an asset for fantasy owners though, especially with first-round draft pick Dez Bryant in the mix as Austin's wingman. Speaking of Bryant, he has the skills to be a tremendous weapon for Dallas if he stays focused on football and matures a bit, and his chances of making a big impact as a rookie increase with Dallas' easy course.  

4 Buffalo Bills – Lee Evans had a down year in 2009 with just 44 receptions for 612 yards, but he topped 1,000 yards in two of his last four campaigns (2006 and 2008), and he was chiefly hindered by inconsistent play at quarterback. While he is far from a safe pick for 2010 with Trent Edwards the current favorite to serve under center, Evans could potentially be a pleasant surprise and a nice value pick for fantasy owners with the help of a soft schedule that holds nine favorable match-ups and five difficult ones. Two of the good outings come in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at Miami) and 16 versus New England) as well. James Hardy caught just 10 passes over his first two seasons due to bad luck with injuries, and fell too far behind the curve to recommend as a flier though.

5 Minnesota Vikings – When you think about the Vikings' receivers, Sidney Rice should immediately come to mind after breaking out with 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight scores last year. The 23-year-old shouldn't regress in 2010 with a great schedule that features seven good match-ups and just four bad ones –- assuming Brett Favre holds up his end of the bargain and returns for another campaign. This should also raise the fantasy stock of Percy Harvin even higher, who had a promising rookie campaign with 60 catches for 790 yards and six scores over 15 games (eight starts). The schedule should also benefit Bernard Berrian, but he is just an option for deeper fantasy leagues while coming off a quiet 2009 season (55-618-4).

6 Oakland Raiders – The Raiders have the luxury of a soft slate with eight favorable match-ups and five tough ones, but which of their receivers are you going to trust for the most production? The best bet looks to be Darrius Heyward-Bey, who was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft. Louis Murphy did outperform Heyward-Bey as a fellow rookie however, with 34 catches for 521 yards and four scores over 16 contests (nine starts). Chaz Schilens was having a great training camp before breaking his foot in mid-August, and ended the year with 29 catches for 365 yards and two touchdowns over eight battles. Schilens is the most experienced of the trio as he gears up for his third season, and there is belief that he will join Heyward-Bey as the starting tandem –- but none are worth considering as anything more than fliers, even with better stability at quarterback with Jason Campbell. The key point is to be sure not to overpay for any of the aforementioned group based solely on their schedule.

7 St. Louis Rams – Donnie Avery will be entering his third season, and his chances of breaking out improve with a nice schedule that holds six good match-ups and just four bad ones. None of the Rams' tough outings come after Week 12, and the best comes in fantasy playoff Week 15 versus Kansas City. Keenan Burton will also be heading into his third year and is the current favorite to hold the No. 2 role, but we don't expect him to benefit enough to be a factor in fantasy leagues with either A.J. Feeley or rookie Sam Bradford at quarterback. In other words, their favorable schedule is weighed down a bit by instability at quarterback.

8 Detroit Lions – We expect Calvin Johnson to perform like an elite receiver this year following a down 2009 season with the natural improvement of second-year starter Matthew Stafford at quarterback and with the upgrade of Nate Burleson as Johnson's wingman, and even more so with a good schedule that features five favorable match-ups and just four tough ones. None of the brutal battles come after Week 11, and Detroit gets to face Tampa Bay in Week 15 and Miami the week after. Back to Burleson, he could prove to be an asset down the stretch for fantasy owners, and could be acquired in the late rounds of drafts, going by his current ADP of 16.09.  

9 Philadelphia Eagles – DeSean Jackson is on the verge of breaking out after impressively leading all receivers with 10 catches of over 40 yards as an NFL sophomore in 2009, and his cause will be helped by a favorable schedule that features five good match-ups and just four bad ones. The Eagles have tough outings in Week 13 (versus Houston) and 14 (at Dallas), but get neutral match-ups in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at Giants) and 16 (versus Minnesota). Jeremy Maclin should also continue to make strides in his second year, and will be a player of interest for the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. We also like No. 3 option Jason Avant as a player to stash in deeper leagues. 

10 Washington Redskins – The Redskins will have an unimposing schedule for their receivers with six favorable match-ups and five difficult ones. Just one tough contest comes after Week 10, which falls in Week 15 at rival Dallas. The club upgraded at quarterback with the acquisition of Donovan McNabb, and Devin Thomas could be a pleasant surprise as he enters his third season. Veteran Santana Moss looks to benefit the most from the schedule though, and should be the preferred target among Washington's receivers.

11 New York Giants – Steve Smith broke out in his third year as expected with 107 grabs for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns, and shouldn't stumble in 2010 with a manageable schedule of six favorable match-ups and five tough ones. Just one difficult contest comes after Week 11, which is Week 15 versus rival Philadelphia. Hakeem Nicks has even more upside than Smith as he enters his second season, and is a prospect that I will be personally scooping up in all of my drafts. No. 3 receiver Mario Manningham is gearing up for his third campaign, and you have to like him as a deep reserve as well, namely after making some noise with 57 catches for 822 yards and five scores over 14 games in 2009. 

12 Seattle Seahawks – T.J. Houshmandzadeh's production took a hit in his first year in Seattle after averaging 93 catches, 1,021 yards and eight scores with the Bengals from 2005-08 –- but his numbers could go back up with a 2010 schedule that holds four favorable match-ups and just four difficult ones. No tough outing comes after Week 13, and the Seahawks get to face the Buccaneers in fantasy playoff Week 16. Golden Tate could also make a positive impact as a rookie, and will be worth a look in the late rounds of drafts. Deion Branch could also respond well to the schedule and the presence of Pete Carroll as his new head coach, but that is a pretty big “could.”

13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccaneers were painful to watch at times in 2009, and get a much-needed favorable schedule with five good match-ups and five bad ones. It is worth noting that two of their best outings come in fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus Detroit) and 16 (versus Seattle). They unfortunately don't have a proven receiver on the roster, but that could open the door for Arrelious Benn to make some noise as a rookie. Fellow rookie Mike Williams could join Benn as the other starter, but Benn should be the preferred target among the pair.

14 San Francisco 49ers – Second-year pro Michael Crabtree should take a big step forward in his journey of becoming an elite receiver, and will be helped by a slate that holds five favorable match-ups and five tough ones. The stretch run is smooth with just one difficult battle after Week 8, which comes in Week 15 at San Diego. Don't overlook Josh Morgan in the later rounds of drafts either, who will be entering his third year after hauling in 52 passes for 527 yards and three scores in 2009. Speed demon Ted Ginn Jr. has not been fitting in well so far since leaving Miami via trade in April, and his fantasy appeal looks to be limited to the largest of leagues as of now.

15 San Diego Chargers – The status of Vincent Jackson is uncertain, as he vehemently wants a long-term deal rather than to settle for a one-year tender, and will be forced to sit out the first three games due to suspension. Now if he does decide to remain in San Diego and actually play, he will see a manageable schedule of seven favorable match-ups and six difficult ones. Unfortunately, three of those good match-ups fall in the first three weeks of the season while he is out though. With that said, acting No. 1 receiver Malcom Floyd looks more appealing to us as a fantasy prospect, especially at the beginning of the year.

16 Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals have a fine schedule with five good match-ups and five bad ones, which should take some of the sting out of having to move on without quarterback Kurt Warner (retired) and stud receiver Anquan Boldin (dealt to Baltimore). It is too bad that three of those tough contests come in Week 14 (versus Denver), 15 (at Carolina) and 16 (versus Dallas) though. Fantasy owners are going to target Larry Fitzgerald as a No. 1 receiver anyway, and we won't discourage them. On the bright side, only two difficult outings come between Week 1 and 13, and we like Steve Breaston to make a nice impact (as a mid-round pick) as Boldin's replacement after notably posting 77 catches for 1,006 yards back in 2008.

17 Chicago Bears – New offensive coordinator Mike Martz should be pleased with Chicago's schedule, which holds five favorable match-ups and five tough ones. Their stretch run is pretty smooth, other than a brutal battle against elite cornerback Darrelle Revis and the Jets in Week 16. Devin Hester should be the preferred target among the Bears' receivers, with a promising collection of fliers in Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, who registered a big blip on the fantasy radar in Week 16 last year when he burned the Vikings for 150 yards and a touchdown on seven catches.

18 Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons will have six good match-ups and six bad ones in 2010, which should suit Roddy White just fine. White is the only real receiver of interest in Atlanta, and he should continue to be targeted as a No. 1 option in fantasy drafts –- especially with two of the favorable outings coming in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at Seattle) and 16 (versus New Orleans).

19 Cleveland Browns – The Browns will have eight favorable match-ups in 2010, but also seven difficult ones. Three of the toughest contests come in fantasy crunch time in Week 14 (at Buffalo), 15 (at Cincinnati) and 16 (versus Baltimore). Their No. 1 receiver looks to be Mohamed Massaquoi, and we would have a hard time recommending him as anything more than a fantasy backup even if Cleveland had one of the better schedules. We are not overly excited about elite return man Josh Cribbs playing a larger role in the passing game either, namely as the attack will be directed by washed-up quarterback Jake Delhomme. 

20 New York Jets – We are still high on Braylon Edwards, even though the Jets lack a great schedule with seven brutal match-ups to go along with seven good ones. On the positive side, they will play four straight favorable contests from Week 13-16 –- which is when you will need to rely on Edwards the most. As for Santonio Holmes, his fantasy stock takes a hit due to a four-game suspension to open the year, but he is certainly still worth stashing as a backup in the middle rounds of drafts. It is also worth noting that two of the tough match-ups come when is out of service.

21 Tennessee Titans – The Titans' offense revolves around running back Chris Johnson, evidenced by his 2,509 yards from scrimmage in 2009. Second-year pro Kenny Britt has been struggling mightily so far in the offseason, and it is not encouraging that he will be headed for a schedule that holds seven bad match-ups (and seven good ones). On the positive side, Tennessee does get a great match-up against Kansas City in fantasy playoff Week 16. With all said, we would probably still take a flier on Britt is he dropped to the late rounds of drafts, as he is just too talented to overlook.

22 Houston Texans – The Texans' 2010 schedule is turbulent with seven favorable match-ups and seven difficult ones, but nobody should be scared away from targeting Andre Johnson as the No. 1 receiver in fantasy drafts, as he piled up 216 receptions, 3,144 yards and 17 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Under-rated vet Kevin Walter should come close to his regular level of production as well, making him a quality option as a fantasy backup.

23 Denver Broncos – First-round draft pick Demaryius Thomas has a bright future in the NFL, but we can't get too excited about him as a rookie as the Broncos have a chaotic schedule with six favorable match-ups and seven tough ones. Eddie Royal is the best bet for fantasy production, but we can't recommend him either after dipping to just 37 catches for 345 yards and no touchdowns over 14 games last year following a promising rookie campaign (91-980-5). 

24 New Orleans Saints – The Saints do not have the benefit of a good schedule with just four favorable match-ups and six difficult ones, but stud receiver Marques Colston should manage just fine -– meaning you should not consider passing on him in fantasy drafts. At least New Orleans gets a neutral match-up in fantasy playoff Week 16 at Atlanta. We wouldn't drop the value of Robert Meachem either with stud quarterback Drew Brees firing the pigskin.  

25 Cincinnati Bengals – Chad OchoCinco redeemed himself with a solid 2009 campaign (72-1,047-9) after dipping to just 53 catches for 540 yards in 2008, but the 32-year-old vet will have to work extra hard to remain among the top receivers in the NFL in 2010 with a tough slate of seven good match-ups and eight brutal ones. One of the nastier contests comes in fantasy playoff Week 16 versus San Diego, but at least the man formerly known as ‘The Chad' will have more help with the acquisition of new wingman Antonio Bryant, who is viewed as a sizable upgrade over the aging Laveranues Coles –- and is currently without an NFL team since being released in early March. Ideally, we would prefer to have OchoCinco as a No. 2 fantasy receiver, and Bryant as a backup with upside.

26 Miami Dolphins – Brandon Marshall's bid to make a significant impact as the Dolphins' No. 1 receiver will be made more difficult by a nasty slate that holds six favorable match-ups and eight tough ones. At least he does have a good outing in fantasy playoff Week 16 versus Detroit. We don't have a lot of faith in Chad Henne as Miami's starting quarterback either, so be sure not to reach for Marshall too early in fantasy drafts. He is best targeted as a No. 2 weapon, with nobody else really worthy of your attention outside of deeper leagues when you consider the difficulty of the schedule and limitations under center.

27 New England Patriots – The Patriots will have a tough road with six good match-ups and eight bad ones, but we still fully expect Randy Moss to post stud-caliber numbers –- especially while entering a contract year and with elite field general Tom Brady delivering the pigskin. Wes Welker won't be intimidated by the tough contests either, and the only concern with him is his health following knee surgery to repair a torn ACL. To help ease your mind, the Boston Globeexpects Welker to be ready to go for Week 1. If anything, the schedule hurts the fantasy value of Julian Edelman and Torry Holt, who is well past his best days at 34.  

28 Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have one of the worst schedules with six favorable contests and eight difficult ones, but that shouldn't discourage anyone from targeting Reggie Wayne as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, who averages 95 receptions, 1,306 yards and close to nine touchdowns over the last three seasons. Pierre Garcon shouldn't regress while coming off a solid sophomore campaign (47-765-4) either, as long as elite quarterback Peyton Manning remains upright. Anthony Gonzalez will get a fair shot to compete with Garcon for the No. 2 role, but he needs to work on getting healthy first after missing almost all of the 2009 season with a nagging knee injury. Austin Collie would be backup material for fantasy leagues, even if Indianapolis had a great schedule. 

29 Baltimore Ravens – Anquan Boldin will no longer have the luxury of working with Larry Fitzgerald as his wingman, and will have to work extra hard to hold on to his elite status among fantasy receivers, as Baltimore has a brutal slate with six favorable match-ups and nine tough ones. As for 36-year-old vet Derrick Mason, he should continue to post quality numbers while doing the dirty work as a possession receiver. He averages 85 receptions and 1,050 yards over the last three years.

30 Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars will have just five favorable match-ups and nine brutal ones, but it is hard to drop the fantasy stock of 25-year-old Mike Sims-Walker after registering 63 receptions for 869 yards and seven scores over 15 games (15 starts) in 2009. Keep the rising star on your radar as a No. 2 option, and take note that Jacksonville does have a good match-up in fantasy playoff Week 15 at Indianapolis and a neutral one the week after versus Washington. None of their other receivers like Mike Thomas are worth consideration outside of the deepest of leagues.

31 Kansas City Chiefs – Dwayne Bowe had a disappointing 2009 campaign after notching 86 receptions for 1,022 yards and seven scores as an NFL sophomore in 2008, and his chances of rejoining the upper class among fantasy receivers this year will be hindered by a nasty schedule that features just four favorable match-ups and nine tough ones. Don't be one of the fantasy owners who reaches for Bowe too early based on his promising 2008 numbers, and it is best to let Chris Chambers go as well, who hasn't been an effective fantasy receiver since breaking out with 82 catches for 1,118 yards and 11 touchdowns with the Dolphins back in 2005.

32 Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers will be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for the first 4-6 weeks due to a suspension, and their receivers will see the very worst schedule to make matters even worse, with just five favorable match-ups and 10 difficult ones. None of the good outings come after Week 10, which should affect Mike Wallace's chances of breaking out in his sophomore season, and his first as a full-time starter following the departure of Santonio Holmes to New York. We still do like Wallace though, but our expectations for the deep threat will be tempered. As for future Hall of Famer Hines Ward, he is among the toughest receivers to ever play in the NFL, and should keep his war-face on and continue to post solid numbers for fantasy owners.