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Strength of Schedule Analysis Tight Ends

Contributed by: Mike Lietz
Last Updated: Jul 20, 2010 9:04 AM

There are several valuable applications for strength of schedule analysis. One is staking out backups with favorable match-ups to pencil into fantasy lineups when your studs have a bye. You should always start your studs as they can generally handle a tough defense. This is useful for deciding which marginal stars to potentially avoid who have a

There are several valuable applications for strength of schedule analysis. One is staking out backups with favorable match-ups to pencil into fantasy lineups when your studs have a bye. You should always start your studs as they can generally handle a tough defense. This is useful for deciding which marginal stars to potentially avoid who have a tough road, especially down the stretch when you need the most production to win your league. For example, you may think twice about drafting Ben Watson when you see that he does not have a favorable match-up after Week 13, and has a pair of tough games in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at Cincinnati) and 16 (versus Baltimore). On the flipside, it could be advantageous to stash a guy like Brandon Pettigrew (or teammate Tony Scheffler), as Detroit has two soft match-ups in Week 15 (at Tampa Bay) and 16 (at Miami).

On the chart, the favorable match-ups are highlighted in green, while the difficult contests are in red. Neutral match-ups are left uncolored, and the byes are in black.  

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
ARZ STL ATL OAK SDC NOS BYE SEA TBB MIN SEA KCC SFO STL DEN CAR DAL SFO  
ATL PIT ARZ NOS SFO CLE PHI CIN BYE TBB BAL STL GBP TBB CAR SEA NOS CAR  
BAL NYJ CIN CLE PIT DEN NEP BUF   MIA ATL CAR TBB PIT HOU NOS CLE CIN  
BUF MIA GBP NEP NYJ JAX   BAL KC CHI DET CIN PIT MIN CLE MIA NEP NYJ  
CAR NYG TBB CIN NOS CHI   SFO STL NOS TBB BAL CLE SEA ATL ARZ PIT ATL  
CHI DET DAL GBP NYG CAR SEA WAS   BUF MIN MIA PHI DET NEP MIN NYJ GBP  
CIN NEP BAL CAR CLE TBB   ATL MIA PIT IND BUF NYJ NOS PIT CLE SDC BAL  
CLE TBB KCC BAL CIN ATL PIT NOS   NEP NYJ JAX CAR MIA BUF CIN BAL PIT  
10  DAL WAS CHI HOU   TEN MIN NYG JAX GBP NYG DET NOS IND PHI WAS ARZ PHI  
11  DEN JAX SEA IND TEN BAL NYJ OAK SFO   KCC SDC STL KCC ARZ OAK HOU SDC  
12  DET CHI PHI MIN GBP STL NYG   WAS NYJ BUF DAL NEP CHI GBP TBB MIA MIN  
13  GBP PHI BUF CHI DET WAS MIA MIN NYJ DAL   MIN ATL SFO DET NEP NYG CHI  
14  HOU IND WAS DAL OAK NYG KCC   IND SDC JAX NYJ TEN PHI BAL TEN DEN JAX  
15  IND HOU NYG DEN JAX KCC WAS   HOU PHI CIN NEP SDC DAL TEN JAX OAK TEN  
16  JAX DEN SDC PHI IND BUF TEN KCC DAL   HOU CLE NYG TEN OAK IND WAS HOU  
17  KCC SDC CLE SFO   IND HOU JAX BUF OAK DEN ARZ SEA DEN SDC STL TEN OAK  
18  MIA BUF MIN NYJ NEP   GBP PIT CIN BAL TEN CHI OAK CLE NYJ BUF DET NEP  
19  MIN NOS MIA DET   NYJ DAL GBP NEP ARZ CHI GBP WAS BUF NYG CHI PHI DET  
20  NEP CIN NYJ BUF MIA   BAL SDC MIN CLE PIT IND DET NYJ CHI GBP BUF MIA  
21  NOS MIN SFO ATL CAR ARZ TBB CLE PIT CAR   SEA DAL CIN STL BAL ATL TBB  
22  NYG CAR IND TEN CHI HOU DET DAL   SEA DAL PHI JAX WAS MIN PHI GBP WAS  
23  NYJ BAL NEP MIA BUF MIN DEN   GBP DET CLE HOU CIN NEP MIA PIT CHI BUF  
24  OAK TEN STL ARZ HOU SDC SFO DEN SEA KCC   PIT MIA SDC JAX DEN IND KCC  
25  PHI GBP DET JAX WAS SFO ATL TEN   IND WAS NYG CHI HOU DAL NYG MIN DAL  
26  PIT ATL TEN TBB BAL   CLE MIA NOS CIN NEP OAK BUF BAL CIN NYJ CAR CLE  
27  STL ARZ OAK WAS SEA DET SDC TBB CAR   SFO ATL DEN ARZ NOS KCC SFO SEA  
28  SDC KCC JAX SEA ARZ OAK STL NEP TEN HOU   DEN IND OAK KCC SFO CIN DEN  
29  SFO SEA NOS KCC ATL PHI OAK CAR DEN   STL TBB ARZ GBP SEA SDC STL ARZ  
30  SEA SFO DEN SDC STL   CHI ARZ OAK NYG ARZ NOS KCC CAR SFO ATL TBB STL  
31  TBB CLE CAR PIT   CIN NOS STL ARZ ATL CAR SFO BAL ATL WAS DET SEA NOS  
32  TEN OAK PIT NYG DEN DAL JAX PHI SDC   MIA WAS HOU JAX IND HOU KCC IND  
33  WAS DAL HOU STL PHI GBP IND CHI DET   PHI TEN MIN NYG TBB DAL JAX NYG

 

1 Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins – Cooley's return from a broken ankle (suffered last October) should go a bit more smoothly as the Redskins hold the weakest slate for the 2010 season, with 10 favorable match-ups and just one difficult one, which comes in Week 6 versus Indianapolis. Washington also intends to feature the tight end position under new head coach Mike Shanahan, and there should be no doubt as whether or not to target Cooley as a No. 1 option in fantasy leagues. Fred Davis could be worth stashing in deeper pools too after hauling in 48 passes for 509 yards and six scores as an NFL sophomore last year.

2 Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions – Pettigrew expects to be ready to play for Week 1 after going down with a torn ACL last November versus Green Bay, and the NFL sophomore should be pleased with a great schedule that holds 10 favorable match-ups and just four bad ones. None of the tough outings come after Week 12 either, making him a prime player to stash for the stretch run of the season. This also helps the fantasy stock of Tony Scheffler, who the Lions acquired via trade back in April.   

3 Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys have a strong schedule for tight ends, with 10 good match-ups and just four tough ones. Three of the difficult ones come in fantasy crunch time from Week 12-16, but no one should think about passing on Jason Witten in fantasy drafts for that reason, as he will be money in the bank for most of the year, and is a stud because he can handle the best defenses in the NFL. 

4 Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings – The late-bloomer broke out with 56 grabs for 566 yards and a whopping 11 scores last year, and should remain in company with the best fantasy tight ends with a 2010 slate that features 10 good match-ups and five bad ones. That is assuming quarterback Brett Favre decides to return for another year of course. Two of Shiancoe's best contests come in fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus rival Chicago) and 16 (at Philadelphia) too.  

5 Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – Celek broke out in his third season in 2009 with 76 catches for 971 yards and eight touchdowns, and he shouldn't regress this year with a nice schedule that holds eight favorable match-ups and just four difficult ones. None of the tough games come after Week 10 and two of the best outings fall in fantasy playoff Week 15 (at rival Giants) and 16 (versus Minnesota) as well.  

6 Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers – The Packers went 11-5 last year, but Finley still gets a soft slate for 2010 with 10 good match-ups and just five bad ones. His game in Week 15 against New England will be tough, but at least he has a favorable contest versus the Giants the week after, who surrendered 97 catches, 1,083 yards and 10 scores to opposing tight ends last year. Finley is a rising star and the schedule will help him take the next step forward among his fantasy peers.   

7 Kevin Boss, New York Giants – Boss is not yet a No. 1 fantasy tight end, but could potentially be headed for his most productive year to date with the help of a schedule that holds seven favorable match-ups and just four tough ones. Only one bad outing comes between Week 3 and 16, which falls in Week 13 versus division rival Washington. Boss is worth scooping up as a backup for 2010.

8 Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears – Olsen could post very nice fantasy numbers in 2010 with the assistance of a good schedule that features nine favorable match-ups and just five difficult ones. That is assuming new offensive coordinator Mike Martz ultimately doesn't ignore the position, as he has in the past. The only negative is that one of the tough battles comes in fantasy playoff Week 16 versus the Jets, but at least the game is at Soldier Field.

9 Jeff King, Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have a favorable slate for tight ends with eight good match-ups and just five bad ones –- but unfortunately their top option at the position is Jeff King, who averages a mere 23 catches and 198 yards over his last two years as a full-time starter. None of the tough games come after Week 11, but we cannot really recommend stashing King (or Dante Rosario) outside of the deepest of fantasy leagues.

10 Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers – Davis finally emerged as a beast for fantasy owners in 2009, as he broke out with 76 receptions for 965 yards and an NFL-leading 13 touchdowns. We don't expect him to lose his stud status this year, especially with a soft schedule that holds six favorable match-ups and merely four difficult ones. None of the tough battles come after Week 8 either.

11 Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints – Shockey can be frustrating to own for fantasy owners as he always seems to be nursing an injury, and only hauled in 98 catches and three touchdowns over 25 games in his first two years with the high-powered Saints. He is best drafted as a backup for 2010, and his bid for a good campaign will be helped by a nice schedule of seven favorable match-ups and five tough ones. One of the best outings will come in fantasy playoff Week 16 at the Falcons, who allowed 77 receptions, 936 yards and seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 2009.

12 Shawn Nelson, Buffalo Bills – Nelson was quiet in his rookie campaign (17-156-1), but has loads of potential as a vertical threat and should make a bigger contribution in his second year –- especially with a slate of seven good match-ups mixed in with six bad ones. Just be sure not to reach for Nelson too early, and reserve your interest in him for the deeper rounds of drafts.

13 Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – Miller will only get three favorable match-ups this year, but on the flipside he will only see four tough ones, with the other nine contests being neutral. Miller has made strides in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, and hauled in 66 receptions for 805 yards in 2009 -- which is quite impressive when you consider Oakland's woes at quarterback. Miller's fantasy stock should remain pointed up, when you factor in the Raiders' schedule and improved consistency under center with Jason Campbell.

14 John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – The former Golden Domer notably scored a touchdown in each of the last four games of 2009 with the Seahawks, and he could emerge as a hot fantasy tight end in 2010 with an unimposing schedule of six good match-ups and six bad ones. New head coach Pete Carroll should feature the position as well, and Carlson will get two favorable contests for fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus Atlanta) and 16 (at Tampa Bay). He is ideally drafted as a No. 2 option with upside. 

15 Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans – The Titans' schedule for tight ends isn't bad with three favorable match-ups and five difficult ones, making Scaife a candidate to stash in the late rounds of fantasy drafts. He will see neutral match-ups in fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus Houston) and 16 (at Kansas City), and notably led Tennessee with 58 receptions back in 2008.  

16 Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots – Gronkowski deemed himself 100 percent healthy after missing his entire 2009 collegiate season with Arizona due to a back injury, and he should make a strong case for the starting gig at tight end in New England as a rookie. If Gronkowski does start, he will have a manageable slate of seven favorable match-ups mixed in with seven difficult ones. He has the tools to develop into a top-notch tight end if he can just stay intact, and will be worth a look as a late-round flier if he beats out both aging veteran Alge Crumpler and fellow rookie Aaron Hernandez for the No. 1 role.

17 Dustin Keller, New York Jets – There is belief around the league that the former first-round pick (2008) is ready to break out this year, but he will have to do it without the luxury of a great schedule. He will see seven favorable contests but also seven tough ones. At least none of the brutal battles will come in fantasy crunch time between Weeks 14-16.  

18 Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars – Lewis reached a new career high in receiving yards last year with 518, but he will likely be pushed by “the other” Zach Miller for playing time in 2010 after catching eight passes for 69 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17 (at Cleveland) as a rookie last year. Regardless, neither tight end will have an advantage to post solid fantasy numbers with a schedule that features five favorable contests and six tough ones.

19 Owen Daniels, Houston Texans – Daniels has been progressing well in his rehab from a torn ACL suffered in November at Buffalo, and he shouldn't be held back by a 2010 schedule that holds just four favorable match-ups and six difficult ones. Daniels made strides in every year since entering the NFL in 2006, and was well on his way to joining the elite class among fantasy tight ends prior to going down.

20 Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts – Clark led all tight ends in receptions (100) last year, and finished second in yards (1,106) and third in touchdowns (10). In other words, it was the best year of the 31-year-old vet's career, and we don't expect him to drop from the elite class in 2010 with a schedule of just four favorable match-ups and six tough ones. The Colts have to face Oakland in fantasy playoff Week 16, but that is the only difficult outing after Week 11.

21 Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons – Gonzalez's first year in Atlanta was solid with 83 grabs for 867 yards and six scores, and we expect the 34-year-old vet to remain among the very best fantasy tight ends in 2010, despite a schedule that mixes in six good match-ups with seven bad ones. None of the favorable match-ups come after Week 13, but “Gonzo” is a future Hall of Famer because he can handle nasty defenses.   

22 Ben Patrick, Arizona Cardinals – Patrick has failed to make an impact since entering the NFL as a seventh-round draft pick with the Cardinals in 2007, and isn't expected to register a blip on the fantasy radar this year –- especially with a slate of just three good match-ups and six bad ones. None of the favorable outings come after Week 9 either. Anthony Becht is still in the mix, but is more of an asset as a run-blocker than a receiving target.

23 Daniel Fells, St. Louis Rams – Fells has a good pair of hands and caught 21 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns over 14 games (four starts) in 2009, but it is hard to get excited about him (or the Rams' aerial attack) for this year, especially with a slate of just five favorable contests and seven tough ones. None of the good match-ups come after Week 13 either, with one of the worst coming in fantasy playoff Week 16 versus San Francisco.

24 Daniel Graham, Denver Broncos – Graham only hauled in 28 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown over 16 games (14 starts) with the Broncos in 2009, and we don't expect him to be relevant in fantasy leagues this year, especially with a schedule that holds just two favorable match-ups and six tough ones. One of the bad outings comes in fantasy playoff Week 15 at division rival Oakland.

25 Leonard Pope, Kansas City Chiefs – Pope has never caught more than 23 passes in a season since entering the NFL as a third-round draft pick with the Cardinals back in 2006, and it is only a matter of time before talented rookie Tony Moeaki passes him as the starting tight end in Kansas City. Moeaki has exciting upside as a receiving threat, but expectations should be tempered for 2010, as the position is difficult to learn after leaving college, and he will be headed for a tough schedule that features just three good match-ups and seven difficult ones.

26 Reggie Kelly, Cincinnati Bengals – Veteran Kelly currently sits atop the Bengals' depth chart, but first-round draft pick Jermaine Gresham and even talented second-year pro Chase Coffman could push for the No. 1 role. Regardless of who starts at tight end, they will be in store for a tough schedule that holds just five good match-ups and eight bad ones. The saving grace of the slate is a favorable tilt in fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus Cleveland) and a neutral one the week after (versus San Diego). 33-year-old vet Kelly would hold little or no fantasy value even if Cincinnati had a great schedule, going by his past track record of production. Gresham and Coffman look to have bright futures ahead of them, but could be overwhelmed by the difficult slate going by their respective lack of experience. 

27 Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Winslow is a great tight end with a bad schedule for 2010, with five favorable match-ups and eight difficult ones. His first year in Tampa Bay was successful, as he hauled in 77 catches for 884 yards and five scores, and Josh Freeman should be wiser and more comfortable in his second year at quarterback. Winslow shouldn't be overlooked as a No. 1 fantasy option, and he does get a good match-up in fantasy playoff Week 15 (versus Detroit) and a neutral one the week after (versus Seattle). 

28 Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – Heap reemerged as a quality fantasy tight end in 2009 (53-593-6) after being a nonfactor in the previous two years, but the 30-year-old vet could potentially fade back into obscurity in 2010, with a tough schedule that holds five favorable match-ups and eight difficult ones. He does have a good contest against the Browns in fantasy playoff Week 16, but Heap shouldn't be considered as anything more than a backup. Talented third-round draft pick Ed Dickson will probably be worked into the Ravens' offense at some point as well, hence cutting into Heap's production even more. 

29 Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins – Fasano is a tough blue-collar vet for Miami, but he doesn't offer much as a fantasy tight end, especially with a difficult schedule that shuffles six good match-ups with nine bad ones. He does get to face the Lions in fantasy playoff Week 16, but that lone outing is not enough to consider stashing Fasano in fantasy leagues.

30 Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers – Gates will be headed for a tough slate of just two good match-ups and eight bad ones –- but would you really consider passing on a guy who averages 75 catches, 972 yards and close to 10 touchdowns over his last six seasons? I think not. Draft Gates as a No. 1 fantasy tight end with confidence, and expect him to consistently get the job done against the nastiest opponents like the stud that he is.

31 Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – Miller was a pleasant surprise in 2009, as he set new personal highs in receptions (76) and yards (789), after averaging just 42 catches and 483 yards over his previous four seasons from 2005-08. His numbers should come back down a bit in 2010, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will miss the first 4-6 weeks due to a suspension, and Miller will be in store for a vicious schedule that holds six good match-ups and 10 tough ones. That includes nine straight difficult tilts from Week 8-16. Don't be the fantasy owner who reaches for Miller too early based on last year's inflated production. 

32 Ben Watson, Cleveland Browns – Watson was an underachiever during his six-year run in New England, and will be hard-pressed to emerge as a reliable fantasy weapon in 2010 with the Browns, as he will face the absolute worst schedule for tight ends with just three favorable match-ups and nine brutal ones. None of his good match-ups will come in fantasy crunch time between Weeks 14-16 either. To make matters even more grim, Cleveland lacks a true No. 1 receiver and washed-up vet Jake Delhomme is their best option at quarterback.



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