Wide Receiver Analysis: Pass Targets & Red Zone Looks

Wide receivers cannot produce for fantasy owners if they do not get a chance to touch the pigskin consistently and are not trusted by their quarterback, and they can't generate a hefty touchdown total if they aren't featured in the red zone. The following players are listed in the order of total targets in 2009.

The chart lists the top 40 receivers in both stat categories.

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – Johnson has developed into the best receiver in the NFL, and it is not surprising that he led in pass targets in 2009. He caught 59 percent of those, which is a good mark considering that he was often double teamed. He has topped 100 catches in three of the last four seasons, and should stay on par in 2010, barring injuries to him or gunslinger Matt Schaub. 

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons – White finished second in the league last year with 165 targets, and the stud averages 85 receptions, 1,246 yards and eight touchdowns over his last three campaigns. White could realistically take his production to a higher level in 2010 with continued improvement from quarterback Matt Ryan, who will be entering his third year as a starter with the Falcons. 

Wes Welker, New England Patriots – Welker is a tremendous receiver for PPR leagues, as he averages 115 catches over the last three seasons. He is also Field General Tom Brady's favorite soldier, evidenced by the fact that he averages 152 targets over the aforementioned span –- while Randy Moss averages 141. Welker's status for the start of the season is in question as he is rehabbing from surgery to repair a torn ACL and MCL, but is certainly worth stashing with a current ADP of 7.05.

Steve Smith, New York Giants – Smith broke out in his third campaign with New York as expected, and finished fourth in the NFL with 157 pass targets –- 107 of which he hauled in for 1,220 yards and seven scores. He caught 68 percent of those, which was the second highest mark among the receivers in the top eight. He is the real deal among fantasy receivers, even more so for the PPR format.

Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins – Marshall was “only” targeted 154 times in 2009 after having an average of 175.5 targets over the previous two seasons –- but he still had a strong year for fantasy owners with 101 grabs for 1,120 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also led all receivers with 29 targets in the red zone. There is no denying that Marshall is among the very best receivers in the NFL, but expectations should be tempered in his first year with the Dolphins, who haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2005 (Chris Chambers).   

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals – “Fitz” snagged 63 percent of his 153 targets in 2009 for 97 receptions, 1,092 yards and 13 scores. He also led all receivers with 10 touchdowns in the red zone. His targets may go up this year following the departure of Anquan Boldin to Baltimore –- but that said exit could lead to less catches, as he will certainly be double teamed more with a lesser wingman in Steve Breaston. Quarterback Matt Leinart's accuracy is in question as well, as he holds a mere 57.1 completion percentage (on 595 attempts) up to this point of his career.  

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts – Wayne has the luxury of the best quarterback in the league delivering his passes in Peyton Manning, and he is coming off another strong campaign as he caught 100 of his 149 targets for 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also converted seven of his 21 targets in the red zone into touchdowns. Pierre Garcon proved to be a worthy wingman last year, and Wayne is once again one of the safest bets among fantasy receivers for 2010. He will have added motivation to dominate while angling for a new contract too.    

Santonio Holmes, New York Jets – The Steelers opted to “air it out” more in 2009 under the direction of offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, and in turn speed demon Holmes had a career high 138 targets, 79 of which he plucked for 1,248 yards and five scores. Now his stats are sure to take a hit in 2010, as he will be playing for the run-heavy Jets, and will open the season serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Don't be the fantasy owner who overpays for Holmes based on last year's production.

Randy Moss, New England Patriots – Moss may be 33, but he is yet to show signs of slowing down, and came down with 83 of his 138 pass targets last year for 1,264 yards and 13 touchdowns, eight of which were scored in the red zone. He should remain among the most targeted receivers in the NFL in 2010, especially if Wes Welker ultimately misses some time while rehabbing from knee surgery.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers – Ward is among the toughest receivers to ever play in the NFL, and had another strong tour of duty with the Steelers in 2009, as he hauled in 95 of his 137 pass targets for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns. His catch percentage of 69 was the second highest among all receivers in the top 15, and his numbers for the start of 2010 shouldn't suffer too much while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger serves his suspension.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – Johnson was targeted 136 times in 2009, but was only able to catch 67 (49 percent) for 984 yards and five scores, chiefly due to the lack of a worthy wingman to keep defenses from constantly double teaming him. Now we fully expect his catch-rate to rise significantly for 2010 following the addition of Nate Burleson, and with the natural progression of second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford. He was hindered by knee, thigh and hand ailments as well, and the freakishly talented receiver should end the 2010 campaign among the stud class if he can just stay healthy and if Burleson does his job.  

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks – Houshmandzadeh only caught 58 percent of his 135 targets in his first year with the Seahawks in 2009 after hauling in 67 percent of his targets in his previous two years with the Bengals, namely because he lost ace wingman Chad OchoCinco. Now we imagine his catch-rate will improve this year following the addition of Golden Tate in the second round of April's draft, meaning Houshmandzadeh could make a nice value pick for fantasy owners with a current ADP of 8.12.   

Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens – Mason was quarterback Joe Flacco's favorite and most reliable target last year, as he caught 73 of his 134 targets for 1,028 yards and seven scores. He converted five of his 12 targets in the red zone into touchdowns as well. Mason hasn't missed a battle since 2002 and still has a bit left in the tank at 36, but we think that his targets and production will take a serious hit this year following the addition of stud Anquan Boldin.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – Smith only caught 50 percent of his 129 targets last year, and was in turn a disappointment for fantasy owners with just 982 yards and seven trips to the end zone. Only two of his touchdowns came in the red zone additionally. Matt Moore proved that he could be an effective quarterback last year, but it is hard to trust Smith as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, especially since he is currently recovering from a broken arm suffered in June. It is also worth noting that the Panthers favor the run with their tremendous 1-2 punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. 

Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens – Boldin had the luxury of playing alongside stud Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, and in turn came down with 66 percent of his 128 targets last year for 1,024 yards and four scores. He will still have a solid wingman in Derrick Mason with the Ravens, so his numbers shouldn't dip too much in 2010. We have faith that Joe Flacco will make strides in his third year as a starter too. 

Chad OchoCinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Laveranues Coles crashed and burned in his lone campaign with the Bengals in 2009, but he didn't drag down OchoCinco, as the eccentric wideout snagged 72 of his 128 targets for 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns -– which was his highest scoring total since 2005, when he also made nine trips to the end zone. The Bengals upgraded at receiver with Antonio Bryant and former stud Terrell Owens, meaning OchoCinco should be in position to have another fine campaign for fantasy owners in 2010.

Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys – Austin emerged as the No. 1 receiver in Dallas last season, and was most notably far more reliable than Roy Williams, as he plucked 81 of his 124 targets for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Cowboys threw the ball in his direction 21 times in the red zone, four of which resulted in a touchdown. His numbers should continue to rise in 2010, even with first-round draft pick Dez Bryant vying for Tony Romo's attention.

Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings – The presence of quarterback Brett Favre did wonders for Rice in 2009, as the receiver enjoyed a career high 121 targets, which allowed him to break out with 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. Now there are two factors that could hurt Rice's fantasy stock for 2010. The first is whether or not Favre will return for another tour of duty in Minnesota. And second is whether or not his ailing hip will be healed in time for the start of the regular season. Be cautious of drafting him as a No. 1 fantasy receiver for the time being.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – Moss came down with 70 of his 120 targets last year for 902 yards and three touchdowns. The speed demon has been inconsistent over his career in Washington, but that could primarily be due to instability at quarterback, and we like him as a value pick for 2010 with Donovan McNabb now under center, as he has a current ADP of 8.05. 

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson only caught 62 of his 118 pass targets last year, but he made them count with 1,156 yards and nine touchdowns. He notably led all receivers with 10 catches of 40+ yards, and fantasy owners shouldn't care that he only had 12 targets in the red zone. He is entering his third year with Philadelphia, and we anticipate him truly breaking out. Don't worry about Kevin Kolb as the new quarterback either, as the dangerous receiver racked up 10 receptions for 250 yards and two scores over Kolb's two starts in 2009.