Running Back Analysis: ADP

ADP stands for Average Draft Position, and collects data from mock drafts to gauge where players are being selected. This helps analyze which players are being drafted too low or high, hence helping fantasy owners uncover steals and/or good late-round value picks. Click the following link to see the data we used for reference, including that from our own mock drafts at FFChamps.

http://www.ffchamps.com/p/preSeason.ADPMatrix/rb/

Also note that the averages could change daily, so may be different than figures used at time of article posting.

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers – The rookie has an average ADP of 19.68, and ours of 12.73 is currently the highest among all others sampled. He lacks elite speed, but is a punishing inside runner, with a good set of hands and solid blocking skills, which will help increase his playing time over Darren Sproles on passing downs. Mathews will namely also help the Chargers fulfill their plan of wanting to run a more balanced offense in 2010. The club is very high on him after trading up from slot No. 28 to No. 12 in April's draft to land him, and we expect Mathews to produce like a No. 1 fantasy back right away. It is also encouraging that head coach Norv Turner predicts that he will register 40 receptions, and we feel that he will hold excellent value as a mid-to-late round pick in the second.  

Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – Wells has an average ADP of 31.17, and is another of our sleepers that we have higher than the others at 20.91. Wells held a solid average of 4.5 yards on 176 carries as a rookie in 2009, and is expected to handle a larger role in the Cardinals' backfield this season, who will likely be running the pigskin more following the retirement of quarterback Kurt Warner and departure of stud receiver Anquan Boldin to Baltimore. He has a high ADP of 40.62 among our samples, and should be a steal if you can land him in the third round and later of fantasy drafts.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers – There are many who believe that Stewart can supplant DeAngelo Williams as the No. 1 running back in Carolina, while others will pass on him entirely in the early rounds of fantasy drafts because they don't like that he works in a timeshare. That explains why there is a wide gap between his highest (31.25) and lowest (52.91) ADP. We fall at a point in the middle at 32.48, and view him as a borderline No. 2 fantasy back. He only averages 202.5 carries over his first two years in the NFL, but rushed for 10 touchdowns in both campaigns. He also racked up 1,133 rushing yards, which was 16 yards more than Williams, as the former stud missed three games with a pesky ankle injury. He could make a nice value pick, especially when you consider that Williams has an average ADP of 18.10.

Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions – We like Best more than his average ADP of 47.47, and feel that he will provide excellent value if he slips past the early part of the fourth round in fantasy drafts, even more so for PPR leagues. He compares favorably to Reggie Bush, and should hold off Kevin Smith for the starting gig at running back in Detroit, especially since Smith may need to take things slow while coming off a torn ACL. Keep in mind that the Lions' offense is on the rise as well with the natural progression of second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford and with the offseason acquisitions of No. 2 receiver Nate Burleson and tight end Tony Scheffler.

Ben Tate, Houston Texans – The talented rookie out of Auburn is viewed as a great fit for the Texans' offensive scheme, but he must compete with Arian Foster (current favorite and garnering praise) and Steve Slaton for the top spot on the depth chart. We have the highest ADP for him at 45.33, but he can be targeted much later in drafts with an average ADP of 66.08. So while there are no guarantees that he will start, we would still advise stashing him as a fantasy backup with good upside. 

Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants – Jacobs dipped to just 835 rushing yards over 15 battles in 2009 after topping 1,000 yards in each of his previous two campaigns, but he was hindered by a nagging knee injury and went on to have minor offseason surgery. He has an average ADP of 67.84, and could prove to be a fantasy steal if he can just stay healthy and regain his edge. A return to double-digits in touchdowns is also a possibly after reaching paydirt 15 times in 2008.   

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints – Bush annually goes undervalued in PPR leagues, despite averaging 65 receptions from 2006-09. He missed 12 regular season games over that span, but he still shouldn't have an average ADP of 73.28. Our ADP on him is currently the highest at 62.52, and he commented that he is as healthy as he has been since his rookie year. Keep that in mind on draft day, as well as the fact that the Saints led the NFL with 26 touchdowns from their running backs in 2009.   

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants – Bradshaw is looking as fast and elusive as ever in training camp, which is encouraging news as he is coming off surgeries on his feet and ankle. His average ADP of 92.95 is too low for a player who racked up 985 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over 15 battles in an injury-riddled 2009 campaign. We have the highest ADP on him at 77.98, and chalk him up as another nice mid-round value pick for fantasy drafts.

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders – There are many inside the fantasy community that believe Bush will break out with the silver and black this year, but confidence in him is still not that high with an average ADP of 95.65. We actually have the most faith in him with an ADP of 82.40, but still feel that he will be hard-pressed to post true starter-caliber numbers due to the limitations of the Raiders' offense, and by the fact that Darren McFadden will still remain a big part of their attack, especially in the passing game.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts – Injuries spoiled Brown's rookie campaign in 2009, but coach Jim Caldwell praised him during OTAs for his improved knowledge of the Colts' offense, and there is belief that he will make strides this season and in turn push Joseph Addai harder for playing time. Brown is much tougher than Addai, who always seems to be nursing an injury, and Brown could make an excellent late-round fantasy pick with an average ADP of 99.62. Not surprisingly, our ADP of 73.82 is currently the highest.

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Slaton's 2009 campaign was a grave disappointment due to a bad case of fumble-itis and a neck problem that led to cervical fusion surgery in January, but you cannot overlook the fact that he racked up 1,282 rushing yards as a standout rookie in 2008, to go along with 50 catches for 377 receiving yards. Slaton will have to battle Arian Foster and rookie Ben Tate for the starting gig at running back with the Texans for 2010, but he should have the edge to be their main man for passing situations, meaning his average ADP of 104.31 is way too low.

Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens – McGahee reached paydirt 14 times while working as the backup behind Ray Rice in Baltimore last year, yet McGahee still has a very low average ADP of 146.89. McGahee added more bulk and muscle to his frame in the offseason and is running great in the early going of training camp, meaning he will have a good chance to generate a strong touchdown total once again in 2010 while called into battle as the goal-line and short-yardage specialist. 

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – Lynch fell out of favor in Buffalo, but the former first-round draft pick is still too talented to just keep on the bench. He is only a trade or an injury to C.J. Spiller or Fred Jackson away from seeing a larger role, and Lynch is worth a look as a late-round flier with an average ADP of 150.37. Our ADP for him is currently the highest at 122, and it should be obvious that Buffalo will try to feature the running game under new head coach Chan Gailey, especially since they lack a stable option at quarterback. Also keep in mind that Lynch averaged 1,317.5 total yards from scrimmage from 2007-08.  

Larry Johnson, Washington Redskins – “LJ” was a fantasy stud from 2005-06, and topped 75 rushing yards in three of the four battles that he had at least 20 carries in 2009, with a high of 107 yards coming in Week 12 versus Cleveland (as a member of the Bengals). We are not saying that he will reemerge as an elite back with Washington, but do feel that his average ADP of 185.74 is way too low, especially when you consider Clinton Portis' dwindling burst and acceleration, and failure to stay healthy last year. Keep Johnson in mind for the closing rounds of fantasy drafts.