Wide Receiver Analysis: ADP

ADP stands for Average Draft Position, and collects data from mock drafts to gauge where players are being selected. This helps analyze which players are being drafted too low or high, hence helping fantasy owners uncover steals and/or good late-round value picks. Click the following link to see the data we used for reference, including that from our own mock drafts at FFChamps.

http://www.ffchamps.com/p/preSeason.ADPMatrix/wr/

Also note that the averages could change daily, so may be different than figures used at time of article posting.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – When a receiver of Jackson's caliber is suspended for three games and is threatening a lengthy holdout thereafter, he is bound to have a wide array of different ADP values. The stud has an average ADP of 50.11 and a low of 71.03. We still like the idea of stashing him for the stretch run – when you need him to count on him the most – which is why our ADP on him is currently the highest at 41. There is also the possibility that the Chargers could ship him out of town, in turn bringing him back to the gridiron (and fantasy relevance) sooner. 

Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles – Most fantasy owners are going to overlook Maclin in drafts because DeSean Jackson is the hot pick among Philadelphia's receivers, but don't forget that Maclin was a first-round draft pick in 2009, and fit in well in their West Coast offense as a rookie. Maclin quietly hauled in 56 passes for 773 yards and four scores over 15 battles (13 starts), and turned heads in the playoffs by catching seven passes for 146 yards and a touchdown at Dallas. He is a little bit bigger than Jackson too at 6-0, 198 pounds, and could provide solid value with an average ADP of 68.23. Ours is the highest at 59.42.

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers – Wallace was a standout rookie in 2009 as he notched 39 receptions for 756 yards and six scores, and he will now be counted on as the Steelers' top deep threat following the departure of Santonio Holmes to New York. He has an average ADP of 72.62, due mainly to the fact that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is slated to serve a 4-6 game suspension at the start of the season. Our ADP on him is currently the highest at 61.09, as we like the idea of stashing him and then watching our patience pay off when he is posting big games after the return of Big Ben.

Robert Meachem, New Orleans Saints – Meachem scored nine touchdowns on just 45 receptions with the high-powered Saints last season, yet he is still going undervalued, evidenced by an average ADP of 77.51. He was a first-round draft pick back in 2007, and this will be his third real season as he was a redshirt as a rookie due to a knee injury. He is currently recovering from toe surgery, but is expected to be ready to go for Week 1, and we expect him to continue to make strides in 2010, especially since he won't see many double teams with stud Marques Colston working on the other side of the field. Looks to be a strong value pick for the seventh round or so.

Braylon Edwards, New York Jets – Edwards looks to be a potential steal with an average ADP of 94.72. He is one of our top sleepers at the position for 2010, which explains why our ADP on him is currently the highest at 72.71. The Jets may be a run-first team, but Mark Sanchez will likely be trusted throwing the ball more in his second year as a starter, and it is a key stat that Edwards averaged 86 yards and scored two touchdowns over the three games that Sanchez topped 200 passing yards after Week 7 in 2009.

Devin Aromashodu, Chicago Bears – Devin Hester and Johhny Knox are the projected starting receivers in Chicago, but there should be plenty of passes to go around in Mike Martz's offense for Aromashodu to post quality fantasy numbers. He registered eight catches for 76 yards and a score in his first start of last season versus rival Green Bay in Week 14, and then broke out with seven receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown two weeks later against Minnesota. With all said, Aromashodu's average ADP of 95.05 seems a bit low, and we like his value as an eighth-round pick and later. Jay Cutler also noted that he thinks Aromashodu is primed for a breakout campaign.    

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots – Edelman has an average ADP of 106.10, and that may even be a bit too high. Wes Welker (knee surgery) will limit his targets when he returns to the gridiron, which hasn't been ruled out as a possibility for Week 1. Brandon Tate and rookie Taylor Price are going to limit his opportunities to touch the pigskin even more, and the Patriots stated that they would like Tate to win the role as the No. 3 receiver. Edelman did an admirable job when filling in last year, but his fantasy upside for 2010 is not that good.  

Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans – Britt has the physical tools to develop into an elite NFL receiver, and should make strides in his second campaign in 2010. He could prove to be a late-round steal with an average ADP of 113.06, and ours is a bit higher at 98. For those fantasy owners who feel that he did not do much as a rookie, just look at the fact that he led the Titans with 703 receiving yards, despite making just six starts over 16 appearances. He should have better chemistry with quarterback Vince Young as well.

Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns – Massaquoi led the Browns with 624 yards and three receiving touchdowns as a rookie last year, and should remain their top receiver for 2010 as they didn't do much to upgrade the position in the offseason. He topped 100 yards twice, with a high of 148 coming in Week 4 versus Cincinnati. He could make a solid late-round value pick with an average ADP of 136.66, especially since Cleveland should have a tad more stability at quarterback with Jake Delhomme.

Chaz Schilens, Oakland Raiders – Schilens was a standout in training camp last year before breaking his foot in mid-August. He had trouble getting back on track following his return, but he did end the season on a high note by hauling in eight passes for 99 yards in Week 17 versus Baltimore. Now we feel that his average ADP of 151.63 is way too low for two reasons. The first reason being that he will be entering his third campaign, where receivers generally tend to break out. And the second reason is the fact that the Raiders will have more stability at quarterback following the offseason acquisition of Jason Campbell. He is currently day-to-day with a foot injury, but is expected to be ready to rock for Week 1. Keep him in mind as a potential steal for the late rounds of fantasy drafts. 

Kevin Walter, Houston Texans – Walter averages 59 receptions, 770 yards and scored 14 total touchdowns over the last three seasons, yet is annually undervalued in fantasy drafts. He has an average ADP of 152.21, and we appreciate him quite a bit more with an ADP of 121 –- but realize that his stock will take a hit if Jacoby Jones beats him for the No. 2 role opposite stud Andre Johnson in Houston. As of now, keep Walter in mind as a depth option for the closing rounds of fantasy drafts.

Golden Tate, Seattle Seahawks – Tate will get a golden opportunity (no pun intended) to start right away as a rookie with Seattle, and has been turning heads in the early going of training camp. He has the physical tools to develop into a top-notch pro, and should make a bigger impact this year than his average ADP of 162.23 suggests. Our ADP on him is the highest at 135.31, and we easily recommend targeting him in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.

Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions – Burleson had a solid year with the Seahawks in 2009, as he recorded 63 receptions for 812 yards and three scores over 13 contests (12 starts). He probably would have reached 1,000 yards if he didn't suffer a pesky high-ankle sprain in mid-December. Now for 2010, the 28-year-old vet will be moving to a better situation in Detroit, with an emerging Matthew Stafford at quarterback, and by the fact that he won't see many double teams as long as Calvin Johnson stays healthy as the top receiver. Going by his average ADP, Burleson could prove to be a steal as a late-round pick in fantasy drafts.  

Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins – Bess quietly led the Dolphins with 76 receptions for 758 yards over 16 outings (two starts) in 2009, and could be primed for a breakout campaign as he enters his third year. His best outing last season came in Week 13, when he tallied 10 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown versus the division rival Patriots –- and he will be hard to double-team this year following the offseason acquisition of Brandon Marshall. Our current ADP of Bess is 152.92, and we like his value as a late-round pick.

Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers – Morgan will be the fourth option in the 49ers' passing game behind Michael Crabtree, tight end Vernon Davis and running back Frank Gore -– but he is still too talented to overlook for the late rounds of fantasy drafts. He has improved in each of his first two seasons in the NFL, and caught six or more passes in three of his final six games of 2009, hauling in two touchdowns over the span. Our current ADP of 180 suggests that he will be available in the closing rounds of fantasy drafts, and is worth targeting as he gears up for his third campaign.