Draft Johnson as your top WR, but not Andre?

Andre Johnson has been the top WR for years now but all good things must come to an end. It is officially time for Calvin Johnson to take over the #1 drafted WR spot for the foreseeable future. Calvin has unmatched tools to dominate in this league and has proven that he can consistently beat double and even triple teams regardless of who's throwing him the ball. The good news is Stafford is back and his arm looks well rested. He has looked tremendous so far this year and with his cannon and accuracy Calvin Johnson's upside is limitless. It is not unheard of to think he can score 20 TDs. We are projecting a more modest 14 this year, but we will not be surprised if he scores nearly every week. He may be the top drafted WR from now through the 2015 fantasy season.

Who is this year's Arian Foster?

It isn't easy finding an RB that was drafted in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round of drafts that will end up being the #1. There are a few guys we think will have “above consensus” years, and they are all in our BIG SLEEPER LIST posted in the Draft Kit, but who could come out of nowhere and lead the NFL? It would probably have to be a rookie. Our bet is on Mark Ingram. No team has scored more total TDs at the RB position over the last 3 years than New Orleans (65) and that was after only 11 total in 2010 (they had 26 and 28 in '08 & '09 respectively). Reggie Bush is gone, and Ingram is getting a shot to be the man for the next few years. New Orleans likes having 1 guy (Ricky Williams, Deuce McAllister, Pierre Thomas..), but injuries have forced them into a RBBC. Ingram may be able to bring them back full circle. The biggest risk is him losing catches to Darren Sproles who they brought in this year, but Ingram is a guy who you can get in the 4th or 5th round and could put up 1st round stats.

Who is this year's Michael Vick?

We may not have to look past the same team to produce similar results. Vince Young is not the talent that Mike Vick is, but he is similar. He may never get the chance as injury is the only way he will get any starts, but in all likelihood he will end up playing 1-3 games at least. Like Vick he has never had great weapons around him. Now in Philly he has some of the best skill position players at nearly every spot, so given a start or two Young could be a top-5 scoring QB those weeks. If Vick misses substantial time, with the coaching of the Philly staff, his career could be reborn as well. If you invest an early pick in Vick make sure to take Young by the 8the round of a 12-teamer. If you don't someone else may have this lottery ticket on their roster.

Who is this year's Brandon Lloyd?

What WR will come out of nowhere, potentially go undrafted and lead the league in scoring? Let's examine what happened to Lloyd that caused him to have a career year. He played for a pass-happy OC and had an accurate QB (Orton) throwing him the ball. Now let's look at Mike Sims-Walker.  Similarities... Former productive WR but been quiet as of late. Goes to a new team and that team gets a new OC who loves to throw A LOT. Actually the same one that Lloyd had his career year with. Josh McDaniels likes to spread it around, so we see Amendola as the Wes Welker role and a great PPR option, but MSW may just fall into the Brandon Lloyd role. If he doesn't pan out or if Donnie Avery can recover well from his knee injury then perhaps Avery is the better option to emerge as this year's Lloyd. Being that he is barely drafted in leagues right now, one could grab MSW in the mid to late rounds and then Avery very late and hope to have this year's Brandon Lloyd on their roster.

Who is this year's Darren McFadden?

What RB that's been around for a few years appearing “Over rated” will finally figure it out and explode onto the FF world? Knowshon Moreno. He's had a few mediocre, injury-filled seasons, but finally looks to be healthy. He'll be dealing with a new Head Coach, but Fox likes to run the ball, and run it a lot. Moreno should be in for a career year and as a guy you can get in the 4th or 5th round as your 2nd or 3rd RB, you won't need to rely on him. But by the end of the season he very well could be putting up first round stats.

Who is this year's Jamaal Charles?

We're looking for someone who's been in the league for a few years sharing carries because he isn't suited for a full-time role. Then when given that chance, Charles exploded with an incredibly productive stretch in 2009 and followed it up with a great 2010 campaign as well. Now Charles is a top-5 RB in most formats. Believe it or not, we think Ryan Mathews can grow into that type of player. He's on an even better offense than Charles. He is currently splitting carries as the team doesn't think he's ready for a full-time role. However if he can prove he can stay healthy, hold onto the ball and gets the carries, we see Mathews as a back capable of producing 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.  He may be one more year away from those numbers, but we are still expecting him to be a solid No. 3 RB who can produce like a No. 2 (eventually like a No.1).

Would you draft Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick?

In most league formats the pick is Rodgers. He is steadier, more reliable and less of a risk. The other thing you MUST realize when picking Vick is that he will likely miss 1-3 games at least. For that reason it is a MUST that you draft Vince Young, who we think can be a top 10-15 QB by mid-season after enough coaching. So if you aren't prepared to protect your 1st round investment with a 9th rounder or so of Young, then go with Rodgers. If your league gives bonus for rushing QBs or long TDs, then Vick may be your guy. Fact is, unless you get 6 points per pass TD or can flex a QB, the real answer is draft NEITHER. You don't get the same value out of a 1st round QB as the drop off to who you get 5 or 6 rounds later isn't nearly as big as the drop off you'll experience at RB or WR if you don't take them early.

Would you draft Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren McFadden?

MJD has been a fantasy beast in this league for nearly a decade it seems and he's still going fairly strong (1,650 total yards last year and 7 TDs). The problem here is we are very worried about the whole Jacksonville team. It just isn't the dynamic type of team we like to have top RBs on. Now Oakland isn't exactly a hot bed of Fantasy talent, but what McFadden did last year was pretty off the charts and we think he can approach that productivity again. He's got a whole lot less miles on his legs and is still playing with a chip on his shoulder. He came to camp in great shape and right now he is in our top 7 in PPR leagues, and a bit lower in non-PPR.  Grab him late in the first as a guy with upside and let's watch him reproduce what he did last year.

Who is this year's LeGarrette Blount?

What rookie buried on the depth chart can emerge as a top 15 RB? Look no further than the team that has more rushing TDs over the last 3 years than any other team in the NFL. Not MIN with Adrian Peterson, not TEN with Chris Johnson, and not NO, which actually as scored more RB TDs than any other team over that span, but many of them came through the air. We're talking about the New England Patriots. Really? Even with Tom Terriffic throwing all of those TDs, they still rush for that many?  Yup, and that trend looks to continue. Benjarvis Green-Ellis is likely to start the year as the lead back, but while solid, he isn't all that special. The Pats drafted some RBs, and we think 1 of the 2 rookies will emerge as the top RB threat by the second half of the year. For now my money is on Stevan Ridley who could be drafted very late, but don't sleep on Shane Vereen. He was drafted a round ahead of Ridley and may get a shot too. Danny Woodhead is in the mix as well, but he's more of a 3rd down back if they have competent runners, and now we think they do. I'll be grabbing Ridley late and hoping he's a RB 2 caliber player for the playoff run.

Who is this year's Mike Williams (TB)

Heading into Fantasy Drafts most people nominated Dez Bryant as the leading candidate for breakout Rookie Wide Receiver, and rightfully so, Bryant has a ton of talent. But there was a good reason why we advised our members to draft Tampa Bay's Mike Williams late in 2010 Fantasy Drafts and that reason was opportunity. Outside of Kellen Winslow, the Bucs didn't have many options in the passing game, so we knew QB Josh Freeman was going to target Williams a lot. A rookie Wide Receiver in almost the exact same situation is Greg Little of the Cleveland Browns. Like Williams, Little slipped in the NFL Draft because he sat out his previous season of College Football. But that's not the similarity we are referring to; we are talking about the Browns lack of playmakers in the passing game just like the Bucs lacked viable receiving threats. Other than Tight End Ben Watson, 2nd year QB Colt McCoy (remember Freeman was also a 2nd year QB in 2010) has a limited number of talented players to target, which leaves the door wide open for Little to step in and make a MAJOR splash as a Rookie. Don't be shocked if Little leads the Browns in receptions, yards, and receiving TDs this season. He'll be a steal in late rounds and an excellent keeper in Dynasty Leagues.