The third-year wide receiver breakout is without question an absurd, stupid theory that has floated about the fantasy football realm for far too long, infecting the minds of weak fantasy football owners, many of whom treat it as fantasy fact. Does it take time for wide receivers to adjust to the NFL and learn their offensive systems? Yes it does. But I do not know why the third year is the perceived breakout year. There is little evidence to support the claim it takes two years for receivers to become familiar with their NFL systems. Proponents of the third-year receiver myth defend it along the lines of, "Well guys like Roddy White, Steve Largent, and Rod Smith all broke out in their third years which is common for wide receivers because it usually takes two seasons for wide outs to master their offensive systems."

Three things are wrong with this logic. Number one is that only a handful of players were selected to support the claim, while the rest of the NFL receiver universe is disregarded.
Number two is an assumption is being made about the amount of time it takes wide receivers to acclimate themselves within their new NFL systems.
Number three is the NFL is a different game in 2011 then it was when Steve Largent and Rod Smith played. The new rules prohibit cornerbacks from pushing, pulling and beating up receivers on their routes, so success comes easier for receivers in 2011.
Even more befuddling is that there are those in the fantasy-football sphere who are projecting breakouts from third-year players like Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, and Jeremy Maclin.

Really? Another breakout? In 2010, Wallace finished as the 5^th best fantasy wide receiver, Nicks finished 8th, and Maclin ended up 16^th. Considering these players were some of the best receivers in fantasy football in 2010, another "breakout" is highly unlikely, no matter how many yards Wallace think he can get this year.
These three receivers all broke out in their second seasons and it got me thinking whether the third-year receiver bump even exists.

After a little bit of research, the answer is… not really.

Turns out, the wide receiver breakout rule really does exist, it just applies to second-year wide receivers. More specifically, second-year wide receivers that were first and second round draft picks, have talented quarterbacks throwing to them, were given the opportunity to start in their second seasons and produced impressive numbers in their rookie years.
Given this criteria, Dez Bryant and Mike Williams could be in for second-year wide receiver breakouts. More on this later.
Below are the top-15 wide receivers in terms of average draft position (excluding Dez Bryant and Mike Williams). Take a look and see what season these receivers "broke out."
italics=rookie year... bolded=breakout year

1. Andre Johnson

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2003	16	16	66	976	4	(1st) #3	David Carr
2004	16	16	79	1142	6		David Carr
2005	13	13	63	688	2		David Carr

It could be argued that Johnson broke out in his 2007 and 2008 seasons after Matt Schaub arrived. But considering Johnson made his first pro bowl in the 2004 season, it has to be considered his "breakout" year. (Note that "breakout" is in quotes because it is a subjective term. Keep that in mind the rest of the article.)

2. Roddy White

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2005	16	8	29	446	3	(1st) #27	Michael Vick
2006	16	5	30	506	0		Michael Vick
2007	16	15	83	1202	6		Joey Harrington

White broke out in his third year despite Joey Harrington throwing him the ball.

3. Greg Jennings

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2006	14	11	45	632	3	(2nd) #52	Brett Favre
2007	13	13	53	920	12		Brett Favre
2008	16	15	80	1292	9		Aaron Rodgers

Some might argue that the significant rise in receptions indicates a third year bump for Jennings. However, Jennings also played in three more games in 2008 than in 2007 and if you averaged out his 2007 numbers for 16 games, Jennings would have finished with 61 receptions and 1061 yards, which is why Jennings breakout season was 2007. 

4. Calvin Johnson

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2007	15	10	48	756	4	(1st) #2	Jon Kitna
2008	16	16	78	1331	12		Dan Orlovsky
2009	14	14	67	984	5		Matthew Stafford

Calvin Johnson definitely broke out his second year. The second overall pick in 2007 broke out in 2008 with Dan Orlovsky throwing passes to him. Quite an impressive feat considering Orlovsky is awful.

5. Larry Fitzgerald

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2004	16	16	58	780	8	(1st) #3	Josh McCown
2005	16	16	103	1409	10		Kurt Warner
2006	13	13	69	946	6		Matt Leinart

Fitzgerald broke out his second year with Kurt Warner taking over at quarterback.

6. Hakeem Nicks

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2009	14	6	47	790	6	(1st) #29	Eli Manning
2010	13	12	79	1052	11		Eli Manning

Nicks broke out his second year, and had one of the best per-game averages in 2010, not only for yards but for touchdowns as well.

7. Mike Wallace

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2009	16	4	39	756	6	(3rd) #84	Ben Roethlisberger
2010	16	16	60	1257	10		Ben Roethlisberger

Broke out second year. With Santonio Holmes gone, Wallace took his place. Another note: I mentioned earlier that one of the indicators for second-year wide receiver success was opportunity. Mike Wallace was given the opportunity to start in 2010 with Holmes gone. Should Holmes had stayed, it would have been more difficult for Wallace to breakout.

8. Vincent Jackson

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2005	8	0	3	59	0	(2nd) #61	Drew Brees
2006	16	7	27	453	6		Philip Rivers
2007	16	16	41	623	3		Philip Rivers
2008	16	16	59	1098	7		Philip Rivers

Vincent Jackson doesn't fall in either the second year bump or third year bump players. Perfect evidence why the second-year wide receiver breakout theory is a theory rather than law.

9. DeSean Jackson

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2008	16	15	62	912	2	(2nd) #61	Donovan McNabb
2009	15	15	62	1156	9		Donovan McNabb
2010	14	14	47	1056	6		Michael Vick

The extremely fast and talented Jackson broke out in his second year. Him and Michael Vick should continue to be a deadly combination in 2011.

10. Reggie Wayne

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2001	13	9	27	345	0	(1st) 30th	Peyton Manning
2002	16	7	49	716	4		Peyton Manning
2003	16	16	68	838	7		Peyton Manning
2004	16	16	77	1210	12		Peyton Manning

It took Reggie Wayne a little longer to breakout, but he eventually did and has been an absolute monster for the Colts ever since 2004.

11. Miles Austin

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2006	9	0	-	-	-	Undrafted	Tony Romo
2007	16	0	5	76	0		Tony  Romo
2008	12	0	13	278	3		Tony Romo
2009	16	9	81	1320	11		Tony Romo

See Mike Wallace. Austin was given his opportunity to shine due to a Roy Williams injury and he made the most of it, catching ten balls for 250 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City in week five of the 2009 season. Eventually, he took Patrick Crayton's starting position later on in the season and the rest is history.

12. Dwayne Bowe

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2007	16	15	70	995	5	(1st) #23	Damon Huard
2008	16	16	86	1022	7		Tyler Thigpen
2009	11	9	47	589	4		Matt Cassel
2010	16	16	72	1162	15		Matt Cassel

Dwayne Bowe finally got over his character issues and broke out in his fourth season. Could Bowe's 2010 touchdown totals been a product of Coach Haley finally figuring out how to use him, or were they just the result of an incredibly easy passing schedule?

13. Marques Colston

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2006	14	12	70	1038	8	(7th) #252	Drew Brees
2007	16	14	98	1202	11		Drew Brees
2008	11	6	47	760	5		Drew Brees

Marques Colston is a freak of nature. He is one of the only 7th-round picks to ever go for more than 1000 receiving yards his rookie year. 

14. Jeremy Maclin

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2009	15	13	56	773	4	(1st) #19	Donovan McNabb
2010	16	16	70	964	10		Michael Vick

Maclin had a very successful 2010 season, and it could be said that he broke out in his second year.  Could be in for a bigger third year, but has other receivers taking away looks from him.

15.  Santonio Holmes

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2006	16	4	49	824	2	(1st) #25	Ben Roethlisberger
2007	13	13	52	942	8		Ben Roethlisberger
2008	15	15	55	821	5		Ben Roethlisberger
2009	16	16	79	1248	5		Ben Roethlisberger

Although Santonio Holmes recorded 427 yards more in 2009 than he did in 2008, his second year is the year he really broke out. Holmes only played 13 games in 2007 but if those games are averaged out for a full year, he would have finished with 1159 yards and 10 touchdowns.

"Breakout Year" Breakdown:

1st Year	1
2nd Year	9
3rd Year	1
4th Year	4

Out of the top 15 players being drafted right now, nine of them broke out in their second years. Roddy White was the only player to break out in his third year. Interestingly enough, more players broke out in their fourth years than in their third years.

Draft Pick Breakdown:

1st round draft choice	9
2nd round draft choice	3
third round draft choice	1
7th round or Undrafted	2

Another interesting takeaway from the draft pick data is that most of the players that broke out were first round picks. This suggests that the more talented a receiver is, the more likely he is to make an impact.
Now let's take a look at the most likely candidates for the second year breakout.  Both Dez Bryant and Mike Williams were high draft picks, produced decent numbers as rookies and have talented quarterbacks throwing to them. 

Dez Bryant (currently the 12th receiver off the board)

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2010	12	2	45	561	6	(1st) #24	Tony Romo
2011	?	?	?	?	?		Tony Romo

In Bryant's case, with Roy Williams gone, he will be in line to start and so his numbers can be expected to rise dramatically with the increased targets.

Mike Williams (14th receiver off the draft board)

Year	G	GS	Rec	Yards	TDs	Draft	Quarterback
2010	16	16	65	964	11	(4th) #101	Josh Freeman
2011	?	?	?	?	?		Josh Freeman

Mike Williams could definitely improve on his year. A first round talent, Mike WIlliams dropped in the draft due to character concerns. However, he played his tail off in 2010, and finished with one of the most impressive seasons by a rookie receiver ever. If Freeman continues to build on his surprisingly good 2010, Mike Williams could be in store for a monster 2011.

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