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Fantasy Football: Week 1 Studs & Duds
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Contributed by:
Anthony King
Last Updated: Sep 03, 2011 12:55 AM |
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Too often we Fantasy Football owners fill out our starting lineups simply based on the most popular names, or who we drafted first. 
This is a losing strategy. If you want to win your leagues, you cannot be afraid to sit a star, or start an unknown. Understanding who has the best matchup, who could be slowed by injury and what the player’s trends have been, will give you a leg up against the rest of your league. But don’t worry, I have you covered. Each week I will give you the players who will have good weeks, as well as the stars you should think about temporarily benching.
Respond in the comment section below if you have a specific “who to start” question. I will reply back quickly, and I may even break the matchup down further in its own article.
Who to Start – Matt Schaub:
Schaub is one of those football anomalies in which his play translates better to the Fantasy world than it does the real life NFL game. This week, Schaub faces the Indianapolis Colts and their 13th ranked pass defense. While ranking 13th is not horrible, the Colts gave up a 91.7 average QB rating to opposing quarterbacks, as well as allowing a 66.5% completion percentage. Furthermore, the Colts only picked off quarterbacks 10 times in the entire 2010 season, which was the 2nd worst total interceptions in the NFL. Seeing as the Texans had the 4th best passing attack in the league last year, coupled with the fact the Colts do not have a true shutdown corner to cover Andre Johnson, Schaub looks like a good bet in Week 1.
Other Safe Picks: Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Phillip Rivers, Kevin Kolb
Who to Sit -- Peyton Manning: Aside from the fact that Manning is actually at risk to miss the first start of his career; he is still a risky pick even if he does give it a go. After playing in zero preseason games, Manning is going to have to make timing adjustments on the fly, without any practice time. Even though he has often times proven to be superhuman, this future Hall of Famer will have some rust to shake off early.
If you look just at last year’s stats, it would appear that Manning could have a field day against Houston’s worst ranked passing offense, who gave up 433 yards and 3 touchdowns to Manning in Week 1 last season. However, Houston’s D is much improved thanks to offseason acquisitions. Their beleaguered secondary now has an anchor, as they signed Cincinnati Bengals’ corner Jonathan Joseph. In last year’s matchup with Joseph and the Bengals, Manning only threw for 185 yards and 0 touchdowns, while his go-to target, Reggie Wayne, only contributed 34 yards receiving with Joseph covering.
Other Risky Starters: Drew Brees, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford
Who to Start – Jamaal Charles: He could have the best Week 1 matchup of any running back this week. The Kansas City Chiefs ranked #1 in rushing in 2010, and they just so happen to be going up against the Buffalo Bills, who were ranked dead last against the run last year. To make matters worse for the Bills, they lost their two leading tacklers, and arguably their two best defensive players, in Paul Posluszny and Donnie Whitner to free agency.
In the past two seasons, Charles has rushed for 143 yards and 177 yards in games against the Bills. Both of those matchups were home games for the Chiefs, which is where their game will take place this year as well.
Other Safe Starters: Ahmad Bradshaw, Felix Jones
Who to Sit – Michael Turner: It may sound crazy to bench a top 5 running back in Week 1, and if you have no other viable option, go ahead and start him and just hope for the best, but Fantasy owners really should not expect much from Turner this week.
The Atlanta Falcon’s first game has them traveling to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears. For his career, Turner has never played great against Chicago. He has averaged only 42 yards per game, which translates to a thin 2.6 yards per carry. This is not just a statistical fluke either, the Bears had the No. 2 ranked rushing defense in 2010, and as they added Amobi Okoye to a front four which already features Julius Peppers and the up-and-coming Israel Idonije, the Bears’ rush defense should be stout once again. Outside of his personal matchup, Turner has also been a relatively slower starter. Over the past two years, Michael Turner has only averaged 54 yards per game in Week 1 of the season.
Turner is however always a threat to score on the goal line. His Fantasy potential for this game will largely rest on how many, if any, opportunities the Falcons get for him inside the Bear’s 5-yard line.
Other Risky Starters: Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, LaGarrette Blount
Who to Start – Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham: With the Giants going up against the No.2 worst ranked passing defense in the league, Eli Manning and the New York wide receivers may be primed for a big week. This duo went for 20 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 yard receiving in 2010. With Nicks back fully healthy, and no Steve Smith or Kevin Boss to take targets away from either wideout, No.1 and 2 on the Giants’ wide receiver depth chart should get plenty of opportunities to make plays in Week 1. New York expects big things from Manningham this year, as the University of Michigan product finished his 2010 season with three straight 100+ yard receiving games.
Other Safe Picks: Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White
Who to Sit – Marques Colston: I am not a fan of New Orleans Saints’ wide receivers in any week, simply because Brees spreads the ball around too much to depend on any one guy game to game. However, I like Marques Colston even less this week as he goes against the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers, and their 5th ranked passing defense.
The Packers only gave up an average passer rating of 67.2 per game, which was the lowest of any team in football. They also gave up the 3rd least amount of Fantasy points to wide receivers in 2010, according to Yahoo Fantasy Stats. Lastly, the Packers only gave up 100+ yards to a wide receiver three times in the entire 2010.
Other Risky Starters: Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Wallace. Mike Sims-Walker
Who to Start – Jimmy Graham: For the same reason I hate the Saints’ wide receivers this week, I love the New Orleans’ tight end. While it is true that the Packer shut down most of the wide receivers they faced last year, the flip side to that is they also allowed the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends. Last year the Saints’ tight ends were a big part of the offense, accounting for 764 yards and 8 touchdowns. With the wide receiver corps thought to be largely neutralized by the Packer’s secondary, Brees will have no choice but to look Graham’s way in the passing game.
Other Safe Starters: Aaron Hernandez, JerMichael Finely, Rob Gronkowski
Who to Sit – Zach Miller: Zach Miller’s fantasy value is seemingly changing every day. First, Miller leaves Oakland and joins John Carlson in Seattle, making both players lose their bankability for fantasy points. Then Carlson gets injured and will be out for the year, once again making Miller the only tight end in the offense. But how will that offense play with a new quarterback running the show?
Tavaris Jackson has shown a propensity to throw the ball to his tight ends, as they had 11 receptions on 18 targets in only 3 games last season. The addition of Sidney Rice to the offense will also draw more targets away from Miller, as in Oakland, Miller did not really have to compete with receivers for throws.
Although Miller may turn out to be a viable tight end in the Seattle system, he is not a good pick for Week 1. The San Francisco 49ers actually gave up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2010. Look for Tavaris to target his tight end a lot, but while Miller may have a decent total of receptions, do not expect it to be for very many yards.
Other Risky Picks: Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley
Who to Start – Stephan Gostkowski: It was recently pointed out to me that Gostkowski wasn’t a good selection at kicker because New England scores touchdowns not field goals. And while that may be true, the ‘Pats score enough touchdowns to make Gostkowski valuable simply as an extra point kicker. In his two games against the Miami Dolphins in 2010, Gostkowski only attempted and made 3 field goals. However, in those two games, he also made 10 extra points. The Patriots averaged 40 points per game against the Dolphins in 2010, so while he may make more extra points than field goals, he may also get three times as many scoring opportunities as the rest of the available place kickers in Week 1.
Other Safe Starters: Matt Bryant, Neil Rackers, Mason Crosby, Garrett Hartley
Who to Sit – Shaun Suisham/Billy Cundiff: 1 field goal, and 1 extra point, that is all you should expect from either kicker in the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens matchup. Both of these teams had very low scoring Week 1s last season, and in their two head-to-head matchups, Suisham got 1 field and 3 extra points in two games, while Cundiff had 2 field goals and 3 extra points in 2 games.
It is also important to consider the conservative nature of the play calling. Knowing these games are generally low scoring, neither coach is going to risk losing field position with long field goal attempts. Of the field goals attempted in last seasons’ meetings, the average distance was only 30 yards per kick. Head coaches, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, will lose you fantasy points simply by electing to pooch punt the ball rather than bring out the field goal unit.
Other Risky Picks: Mike Nugent, John Kasay, Olindo Mare
Who to Start – New England Patriots: The turnover prone Miami Dolphins gave up the 4th most Fantasy points to opposing defenses in 2010. If that wasn’t enough, the Patriots had the 2nd most takeaways in the entire NFL last season.
The Dolphins also have an offense in transition. Their stellar running game now has new faces, as Miami lost Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to free agency. In exchange, the Wildcat offense will not feature Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas, both of whom are no stranger to turning over the ball. Lastly, the Dolphin’s quarterback situation is another aspect of this matchup that favors the Pats’ defense. Chad Henne threw 19 picks last season, including four of those interceptions against New England.
Other Safe Picks: San Diego, Green Bay, Chicago
Who to Sit -- New York Jets: While the Jets look great on paper, Week 1 is not a good matchup for their defense. Dallas averaged 24.6 points per game in 2010, with their backup quarterback playing most of the year. Now with Tony Romo back, the Cowboys explosive offense should only be better. Felix Jones, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are a lot of firepower for any defense to shutdown.
Besides the two meetings with the New England Patriots, this matchup with the Cowboys is projected to be the lowest Fantasy scoring week of the year for the Jets’ D. For a defensive line who doesn’t get to the quarterback much, the Jets lost veterans, Shaun Ellis, to the rival ‘Pats, as well as Jason Taylor back to the Miami Dolphins. If Romo is allotted the amount of time in the pocket that a weak pass rush should provide, it will be very hard to keep this a low scoring game.
Other Risky Picks: Minnesota, Atlanta
As always, players can overcome matchups or buck their current trends for any game. Never underestimate your gut instinct, as you will ultimately be the one in control of your Fantasy team’s fate. Consider this information and then decide for yourself who to play.
Follow @FFChamps on Twitter
This is a losing strategy. If you want to win your leagues, you cannot be afraid to sit a star, or start an unknown. Understanding who has the best matchup, who could be slowed by injury and what the player’s trends have been, will give you a leg up against the rest of your league. But don’t worry, I have you covered. Each week I will give you the players who will have good weeks, as well as the stars you should think about temporarily benching.Respond in the comment section below if you have a specific “who to start” question. I will reply back quickly, and I may even break the matchup down further in its own article.
Quarterback
Who to Start – Matt Schaub:
Schaub is one of those football anomalies in which his play translates better to the Fantasy world than it does the real life NFL game. This week, Schaub faces the Indianapolis Colts and their 13th ranked pass defense. While ranking 13th is not horrible, the Colts gave up a 91.7 average QB rating to opposing quarterbacks, as well as allowing a 66.5% completion percentage. Furthermore, the Colts only picked off quarterbacks 10 times in the entire 2010 season, which was the 2nd worst total interceptions in the NFL. Seeing as the Texans had the 4th best passing attack in the league last year, coupled with the fact the Colts do not have a true shutdown corner to cover Andre Johnson, Schaub looks like a good bet in Week 1.Other Safe Picks: Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Phillip Rivers, Kevin Kolb
Who to Sit -- Peyton Manning: Aside from the fact that Manning is actually at risk to miss the first start of his career; he is still a risky pick even if he does give it a go. After playing in zero preseason games, Manning is going to have to make timing adjustments on the fly, without any practice time. Even though he has often times proven to be superhuman, this future Hall of Famer will have some rust to shake off early.
If you look just at last year’s stats, it would appear that Manning could have a field day against Houston’s worst ranked passing offense, who gave up 433 yards and 3 touchdowns to Manning in Week 1 last season. However, Houston’s D is much improved thanks to offseason acquisitions. Their beleaguered secondary now has an anchor, as they signed Cincinnati Bengals’ corner Jonathan Joseph. In last year’s matchup with Joseph and the Bengals, Manning only threw for 185 yards and 0 touchdowns, while his go-to target, Reggie Wayne, only contributed 34 yards receiving with Joseph covering.
Other Risky Starters: Drew Brees, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford
Running Back
Who to Start – Jamaal Charles: He could have the best Week 1 matchup of any running back this week. The Kansas City Chiefs ranked #1 in rushing in 2010, and they just so happen to be going up against the Buffalo Bills, who were ranked dead last against the run last year. To make matters worse for the Bills, they lost their two leading tacklers, and arguably their two best defensive players, in Paul Posluszny and Donnie Whitner to free agency.In the past two seasons, Charles has rushed for 143 yards and 177 yards in games against the Bills. Both of those matchups were home games for the Chiefs, which is where their game will take place this year as well.
Other Safe Starters: Ahmad Bradshaw, Felix Jones
Who to Sit – Michael Turner: It may sound crazy to bench a top 5 running back in Week 1, and if you have no other viable option, go ahead and start him and just hope for the best, but Fantasy owners really should not expect much from Turner this week.
The Atlanta Falcon’s first game has them traveling to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears. For his career, Turner has never played great against Chicago. He has averaged only 42 yards per game, which translates to a thin 2.6 yards per carry. This is not just a statistical fluke either, the Bears had the No. 2 ranked rushing defense in 2010, and as they added Amobi Okoye to a front four which already features Julius Peppers and the up-and-coming Israel Idonije, the Bears’ rush defense should be stout once again. Outside of his personal matchup, Turner has also been a relatively slower starter. Over the past two years, Michael Turner has only averaged 54 yards per game in Week 1 of the season.
Turner is however always a threat to score on the goal line. His Fantasy potential for this game will largely rest on how many, if any, opportunities the Falcons get for him inside the Bear’s 5-yard line.
Other Risky Starters: Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, LaGarrette Blount
Wide Receiver
Who to Start – Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham: With the Giants going up against the No.2 worst ranked passing defense in the league, Eli Manning and the New York wide receivers may be primed for a big week. This duo went for 20 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 yard receiving in 2010. With Nicks back fully healthy, and no Steve Smith or Kevin Boss to take targets away from either wideout, No.1 and 2 on the Giants’ wide receiver depth chart should get plenty of opportunities to make plays in Week 1. New York expects big things from Manningham this year, as the University of Michigan product finished his 2010 season with three straight 100+ yard receiving games.
Other Safe Picks: Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White
Who to Sit – Marques Colston: I am not a fan of New Orleans Saints’ wide receivers in any week, simply because Brees spreads the ball around too much to depend on any one guy game to game. However, I like Marques Colston even less this week as he goes against the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers, and their 5th ranked passing defense.
The Packers only gave up an average passer rating of 67.2 per game, which was the lowest of any team in football. They also gave up the 3rd least amount of Fantasy points to wide receivers in 2010, according to Yahoo Fantasy Stats. Lastly, the Packers only gave up 100+ yards to a wide receiver three times in the entire 2010.
Other Risky Starters: Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Wallace. Mike Sims-Walker
Tight End
Who to Start – Jimmy Graham: For the same reason I hate the Saints’ wide receivers this week, I love the New Orleans’ tight end. While it is true that the Packer shut down most of the wide receivers they faced last year, the flip side to that is they also allowed the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends. Last year the Saints’ tight ends were a big part of the offense, accounting for 764 yards and 8 touchdowns. With the wide receiver corps thought to be largely neutralized by the Packer’s secondary, Brees will have no choice but to look Graham’s way in the passing game.
Other Safe Starters: Aaron Hernandez, JerMichael Finely, Rob Gronkowski
Who to Sit – Zach Miller: Zach Miller’s fantasy value is seemingly changing every day. First, Miller leaves Oakland and joins John Carlson in Seattle, making both players lose their bankability for fantasy points. Then Carlson gets injured and will be out for the year, once again making Miller the only tight end in the offense. But how will that offense play with a new quarterback running the show?
Tavaris Jackson has shown a propensity to throw the ball to his tight ends, as they had 11 receptions on 18 targets in only 3 games last season. The addition of Sidney Rice to the offense will also draw more targets away from Miller, as in Oakland, Miller did not really have to compete with receivers for throws.
Although Miller may turn out to be a viable tight end in the Seattle system, he is not a good pick for Week 1. The San Francisco 49ers actually gave up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2010. Look for Tavaris to target his tight end a lot, but while Miller may have a decent total of receptions, do not expect it to be for very many yards.
Other Risky Picks: Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley
Kicker
Who to Start – Stephan Gostkowski: It was recently pointed out to me that Gostkowski wasn’t a good selection at kicker because New England scores touchdowns not field goals. And while that may be true, the ‘Pats score enough touchdowns to make Gostkowski valuable simply as an extra point kicker. In his two games against the Miami Dolphins in 2010, Gostkowski only attempted and made 3 field goals. However, in those two games, he also made 10 extra points. The Patriots averaged 40 points per game against the Dolphins in 2010, so while he may make more extra points than field goals, he may also get three times as many scoring opportunities as the rest of the available place kickers in Week 1.
Other Safe Starters: Matt Bryant, Neil Rackers, Mason Crosby, Garrett Hartley
Who to Sit – Shaun Suisham/Billy Cundiff: 1 field goal, and 1 extra point, that is all you should expect from either kicker in the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens matchup. Both of these teams had very low scoring Week 1s last season, and in their two head-to-head matchups, Suisham got 1 field and 3 extra points in two games, while Cundiff had 2 field goals and 3 extra points in 2 games.
It is also important to consider the conservative nature of the play calling. Knowing these games are generally low scoring, neither coach is going to risk losing field position with long field goal attempts. Of the field goals attempted in last seasons’ meetings, the average distance was only 30 yards per kick. Head coaches, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, will lose you fantasy points simply by electing to pooch punt the ball rather than bring out the field goal unit.
Other Risky Picks: Mike Nugent, John Kasay, Olindo Mare
Defense
Who to Start – New England Patriots: The turnover prone Miami Dolphins gave up the 4th most Fantasy points to opposing defenses in 2010. If that wasn’t enough, the Patriots had the 2nd most takeaways in the entire NFL last season.
The Dolphins also have an offense in transition. Their stellar running game now has new faces, as Miami lost Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to free agency. In exchange, the Wildcat offense will not feature Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas, both of whom are no stranger to turning over the ball. Lastly, the Dolphin’s quarterback situation is another aspect of this matchup that favors the Pats’ defense. Chad Henne threw 19 picks last season, including four of those interceptions against New England.
Other Safe Picks: San Diego, Green Bay, Chicago
Who to Sit -- New York Jets: While the Jets look great on paper, Week 1 is not a good matchup for their defense. Dallas averaged 24.6 points per game in 2010, with their backup quarterback playing most of the year. Now with Tony Romo back, the Cowboys explosive offense should only be better. Felix Jones, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are a lot of firepower for any defense to shutdown.
Besides the two meetings with the New England Patriots, this matchup with the Cowboys is projected to be the lowest Fantasy scoring week of the year for the Jets’ D. For a defensive line who doesn’t get to the quarterback much, the Jets lost veterans, Shaun Ellis, to the rival ‘Pats, as well as Jason Taylor back to the Miami Dolphins. If Romo is allotted the amount of time in the pocket that a weak pass rush should provide, it will be very hard to keep this a low scoring game.
Other Risky Picks: Minnesota, Atlanta
As always, players can overcome matchups or buck their current trends for any game. Never underestimate your gut instinct, as you will ultimately be the one in control of your Fantasy team’s fate. Consider this information and then decide for yourself who to play.
Follow @FFChamps on Twitter
The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.
