Welcome back to What We Learned. Every week we’ll take a look at key information we can garner from how the NFL’s previous weekend has played out. We are not looking for the obvious pieces of info we already knew. I’m assuming you all know that Adrian Peterson is really talented. What this column looks at is, week to week, how coaching strategies, injuries, player developments and performance should effect how we make choices about our fantasy rosters moving forward.

 

Let’s take a look at this past week’s action. As always I encourage you to not over-react to any one game, but rather look towards trends and long-term insight. We should always be watching and learning every week. With that in mind here is a look at what we learned and what we think we learned from week two:

 

Giants/Rams

What we learned: A trend is a trend. First drive of the game, Eli Manning throws a pick.  A bad pick, with his WR wide open. Yes he got better as the game went on, but something is wrong between the ears with Eli right now. On a positive note, Eli to Nicks in the red zone is simply lethal. If you had to score a touchdown to save your life, Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings back shoulder or Manning to Nicks where Nicks  steps just inside of his defender to make the grab, would have to be your final two choices. Not yet Sam Bradford, but soon, very soon Mike Sims-Walker is what we thought he was, inconsistent. If he brings it every week, Bradford will make his star shine brightly. Its on you MSW, your call.

What we think we learned: Bradford is looking for Lance Kendricks - at some point that connection is going to produce big results. Keep the faith. There is no bigger fantasy tease than Danario Alexander. The guy is overflowing with talent, but his medical history is beyond scary. This Giants defense is incredibly banged up, but rookie (and Michigan State alum, Go Green!), Greg Jones gives them something they have been missing at the LB spot since Antonio Pierces was healthy: heart. This is an intangible, but it can help a defense play over its head, and that can translate into fantasy points.

 

Buccaneers/Vikings

What we learned:  Mike Williams will be up and down until there is a clear #2 option in Tampa Bay. This is the last time I’ll tell you, but if you missed last weeks column (where were you? Insert link) Donovan McNabb is d-o-n-e. He was great, he no longer is. Don’t let the name fool you. Adrian Peterson is really talented. (Just checking to see if you’re paying attention). This Vikings defense is in serious decline.

What we think we learned: Remember what I said about not over-reacting to one week? Well you shouldn’t have gotten so low on LeGarrette Blount last week, but don’t get too high on him now.  Josh Freeman is spreading the ball around, showing his continued maturation as a QB. He hasn’t exploded yet this season, but it’s coming.

 

Steelers/Seahawks

What we learned: You just can’t justify owning a Seahawk. You just can’t. There is no stability AND no upside on that team. I dare you to prove me wrong. I’ll take your comments below. We need another week before we know if week 1 or week 2 was the flukey Steelers defense performance.

What we think we learned: Long time Hines Ward owners have to prepare to ease into the next stage of life. Ward has been a warrior, but he’s the 4^th WR on his own team, and should be a WR5/WR6 on yours.  If Rashard Mendenhall goes down, Isaac Redman will replicate his stats within 80% - 90%. Translating that sentence: Mendenhall owners should be handcuffing Redman.

 

Falcons/Eagles

What we learned: I would never be mistaken for an Eagles fan, but Dunta Robinson is a punk. Let’s leave it at that. Tony Gonzalez is not done yet, and can be a force still at the TE spot. His chemistry with Matt Ryan has gone to another level. Other than the Packers, there is no better team than the Eagles in getting back-up QBs ready to play. When Michael Vick went down, the unheralded Mike Kafka turned in an existential performance in replacement. We witnessed the metamorphosis of an untested QB into a valuable NFL asset. Too much? Moving on.

What we think we learned: Once again Michael Turner’s game was not as good his final numbers, but after watching this game carefully I’m not sure that it’s his fault.  Turner was never a great “first step” guy, but rather when his blockers created a lane, Turner had great burst and was a load to bring down. The Eagles were pushing around the Falcons O-line like rag dolls on rushing plays. Whether that says more about the Eagles or the Falcons, we’ll need another week to determine. DeSean Jackson is exciting, but Jeremy Maclin has potential to be a better receiver by a large margin.  His price is probably up a bit after this game, but I would be targeting him in a trade if you can get him. He’s top 20 WR talent in a good situation. LeSean McCoy’s play after Vick went down was impressive. He continued racking up plays while the whole stadium knew he was getting the ball. That’s RB1 stuff right there. Matt Ryan is not progressing at the rate he should, he may always be a very high QB2.

 

Cowboys/49ers

What we learned: We should have already learned this, but Romo is one tough dude. The Cowboys will have to live with games like this from Felix Jones, and so will you. If Dez Bryant or Miles Austin goes down, the other is still an elite WR option. The Dallas pass rush is not just DeMarcus Ware.

What we think we learned: After Dez, Miles and Jason Witten there is no other WR option to be relied upon on the Cowboys. You are completely within your rights to worry about Vernon Davis if used a decent pick for him.

 

Bengals/Broncos

What we learned: Last week’s TD was no big deal, but this week AJ Green’s numbers shouldn’t be ignored. The biggest number in my mind: 10 catches. Dalton is looking for him, and finding him, a lot. The oft forgotten Willis McGahee can be a serviceable RB for your squad if No-Show Moreno is down for any extended period of time.

What we think we learned:  We know teams can be greater than the sum of their parts. Sometimes players can be as well. Case in point, Andy Dalton. Nothing wows you about his physical tools, but he’s a QB, plain and simple. Put Jerome Simpson on your radar and watch to see if he does it again before picking him up. There was a lot of buzz about Eric Decker this pre-season. It looks justified. I would look for his role to grow as a complement to Brandon Lloyd as the season goes on, and in Dynasty leagues he could have real value.

 

Saints/Bears

What we learned: Matt Forte just finds a way to score fantasy points. It’s hard to think about him as a top-flight fantasy back, but we should get over it. He’s legit and has been for a while now. I could have put this next point in the “what we think we learned” but I’m keeping it here because I’m that sure about it: Jimmy Graham will be the most consistent pass catcher for the Saints this year and in that offense that’s a big deal. When you factor in his physical tools, and his relative inexperience, his potential is an even bigger deal. Cutler will not make it through the season alive with this type of protection.

What we think we learned: If you are betting on one Saints RB to produce every week, Darren Sproles is your best bet. Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas have very similar games and therefore similar uses. This is not the case for Sproles, one of the more unique players in the NFL.  Drew Brees will take what the defense gives him. That’s great for the Saints, terrible for you if you own a Saints WR and are hoping for something consistent to rely on.

 

Patriots/Chargers

What we learned: Has the NFL ever been so loaded at the TE spot? Has any team ever been so loaded at the TE spot than the Patriots? A plea to every fantasy expert and analyst out there: Enough with the talk about how they cancel each other out. Start them both. Every week. If you have a big WR, start him against the Pats. First, Brandon Marshall and now Vincent Jackson have torched them.  You want Deion Branch over Chad Ochocinco on your squad, and it’s not that close.

What we think we learned: More on New England’s dynamic TE duo: There is no debate who the best Patriot tight end is, it is Rob Gronkowski. You know who the best wide receiver on the Patriots is? Aaron Hernandez. Here is a bold one for you - we have indeed seen the best days of Antonio Gates. Will he still be valuable if not excellent this year? Likely, but V-Jax is the premiere target for Philip Rivers in San Diego.

 

Colts/Browns

What we learned: That you don’t want any part of either of the Colts involved in this game.

What we think we learned: Nope, that about sums it up.
 

Jets/Jaguars

What we learned: This is one of those games where everything pretty much played out just as we thought, so not all that much to be learned. However, just in case you were holding out hope: No, there is no one on the Jacksonville passing offense you want any part of. Oh, and just to keep the streak of mentioning Josh Scobee alive, Scobee kicked a 55 yarder.  (All the greater Jacksonville area readers just threw their laptops against the wall).

What we think we learned: Shonn Greene is going to get a bulk of the Jets rushing carries. What he will do with those carries is suspect. Derrick Mason has had a great career, a truly underrated professional his entire career. I’m sure his presence is a positive one in the Jets locker room. He is not a positive presence however on anyone’s fantasy roster.

 

Lions/Chiefs

What we learned: I feel for the Chiefs. There isn’t a whole lot to say here, other than to be the 5,357^th writer to say congrats on taking the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Injury has killed this team, and now without Charles you can count on every team doubling Dwayne Bowe on every possession. It’s a fantasy graveyard. As down as they are in Kansas City, that’s how up they are in Detroit. I’m all in on this Detroit Lions squad. Matthew Stafford is a legit QB1 and you can line him up against any of the big boys and feel confident. This Tony Scheffler/Brand Pettigrew situation is going to take a while to sort itself out.

What we think we learned: Nate Burleson will produce steadily all season long. He’s a perfect complement across the field from Calvin Johnson. While Megatron continues to pull all the attention of opposing defenses, Stafford will continue to feed Nate the ball. I like this Lions defense, a lot. They should have another nice game next week against the Vikings. But circle the week 4 game at Dallas. That will be a big test for this young Lions D.

 

Raiders/Bills

What we learned: Sometimes it’s hard to get past a team’s history. It’s time to get over the Bill’s history. Ryan Fitzpatrick is for real, so is their offense. This has been a much better rookie class than expected. Raider’s Wide Receiver Denarius Moore is one of the most unexpected.  He was spectacular on Sunday and you should grab him while you can. He is the most talented WR on the Raider’s roster right now. There was some thought that Darren McFadden would be splitting carries with Michael Bush. That’s not happening, but Bush is a must have handcuff for McFadden owners.

What we think we learned: The Raider’s defense has really regressed and their secondary down the stretch was a joke. David Nelson is making an interesting case to be fantasy worthy. If the NFL wasn’t so deep at tight end I would take a longer look at Scott Chandler. You can hold off for now.

 

Packers/Panthers

What we learned: I know I preached patience with Cam Newton, but perhaps I was too cautious last week. Newton’s is a classic case of a player producing fantasy stats at a much higher clip than winning plays on the field. The Panthers are slinging the ball all over the field, and Cam is pretty much their entire rushing offense as well. I don’t think this will win many games, but it sure racks up fantasy points.  The return of Steve Smith is legit.

What we think we learned: That the Panthers really blew it with the contract they gave DeAngelo Williams. It’s James Starks over Ryan Grant. Starks just passes the eye test, and Grant, well, he just doesn’t. Greg Jennings owners might want to lower their expectations just a bit. It’s nothing against Jennings, but there are just a lot of options on Green Bay’s offense.  It’s time to start wondering about the Packer’s secondary. They are giving up huge gains through the air.

 

Ravens/Titans

What we learned: The Ravens had hyped themselves up for last week’s match-up with the Steelers and were due for a let down. That said, we can’t overlook Matt Hasselbeck’s fantastic start. I can’t stress this enough, Hasselbeck has never had a receiver of Kenny Britt’s caliber. The Titan’s quarterback is a smart veteran and if defenses are going to key in on stopping Chris Johnson, Hasselbeck will take to slinging it and can make a nice QB2 for you this season.

What we think we learned: No need to worry about CJ2K. After next week if he lays a stinker, we will re-evaluate. Watch Javon Ringer very closely these next couple weeks.

 

Cardinals/Redskins

What we learned: The connection of Kevin Kolb to Larry Fitzgerald will be just fine. There is not a #2 WR to hang your hat on in Arizona, though. It’s official – Fred Davis in, Chris Cooley out.

What we think we learned: Roy Helu looked really good. I know this is directly contradicting what we “learned” last week, but it will be interesting to watch how Helu and Tim Hightower’s touches are split moving forward.

 

Texans/Dolphins

What we learned: We’re moving this from last week’s “think we learned” into “learned”: The Texans can run the ball, period. And Ben Tate’s development reduces Foster value significantly. Foster is still very valuable, and if you can buy him low, I would. But he is a far cry from the guy who was the top overall pick in most drafts before the hamstring injury. There is a meta-lesson learned here, be careful of the one-year wonder.

What we think we learned: Jacoby Jones can play. Why the Texans don’t just let him, I have no idea. Daniel Thomas has started his campaign to be the Dolphins RB.  I’m not buying it just yet, but we are on notice. We might have over-hyped Chad Henne’s development last week. His results in week one versus week two may say more about the Patriots and Texans defense. The Texans defense is rising up my board, fast.

I look forward to your comments below and I'll do my best to respond. See you next week!

 

 

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