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Week 3 Picks & Fantasy Preview

Contributed by: Kyle O'Connor
Last Updated: Sep 22, 2011 12:03 PM

Its been two of the most interesting NFL weeks in recent memory, and Im loving every second of it. Dont get me wrong, I love a good defense; especially those that mix it up, think outside the box and confuse offenses. However, isnt just more fun to watch these high flying offenses? Were scoring points at a recording breaking pace! Fantasy goodness

It's been two of the most interesting NFL weeks in recent memory, and I'm loving every second of it. Don't get me wrong, I love a good defense; especially those that mix it up, think outside the box and confuse offenses. However, isn't just more fun to watch these high flying offenses? We're scoring points at a recording breaking pace! Fantasy goodness all over. We can't forget the fantasy heartbreak that goes with it, most notably this week, injuries. I'll get to those later. As usual, I'm going to start the column off with my good calls from last week, as well as my bad calls. Then we'll get into the picks and fantasy darkhorses. Remember, I'm not going to point out obvious fantasy stars, rather players that could benefit you in a deep league, or if you're battling injuries, bye weeks, etc... As for my picks, let's hope it picks up soon. I finished 35 games above .500 last year, so I figured the law of averages was going to rear it's ugly head soon. I'm feeling a Romo-like bounce back week though! Let's get started.


Good Calls:
Devery Henderson - Caught a long bomb for a touchdown, good day for a WR3. 
Jahvid Best - Huge day. Ran well, received well out of the backfield. He's a big matchup problem. RB2 from here on out. 
James Starks - Getting more and more carries, especially in the redzone. He ran for nearly 100 yards and added a handful of catches. Good day. 
Nate Washington - Caught seven balls for over 100 yards. Solid WR3 play. Surprised me and I was high on him. 
Arrelious Benn - Caught a touchdown, can't complain there. 
Fred Davis - Was targeted often, as I thought he would be. Also scored, not too bad. 
Jerome Simpson - Handful of catches, over 100 yards.
Owen Daniels - Found the endzone, I was almost positive he would. Good play moving forward.
Ryan Mathews - Looked fantastic for the second week in a row, and even got some redzone touches. He scored as well.
BenJarvus Green Ellis - He also scored, on a late 16 yard scamper. Would only trust him as a flex play at this point.
Jeremy Maclin - Jackson was taken away, so Maclin had a big day. Big drop late, but that's why it's fantasy football and not real football. 

Bad Calls:
Darius Heyward Bay - I don't know why I even mentioned him. Sigh.
Devin Hester - I was banking on him breaking a punt return, but he didn't. Nonfactor at receiver. 
Steve Breaston - Incase any Chiefs fans are reading..let's just move on..
Deji Karim - Didn't split time with MJD like I thought he would. Nothing more than a handcuff from here on out. 
Daniel Fells - Liked what I saw from him Monday night of Week 1, regressed this week. 

Let's get to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals
This game won't be any fun to watch, no surprise there. The Benglas have been a nice surprise, they have good pieces and play hard. I think the 49ers win this though, maybe by a touchdown or so. I don't really have much more to say about this game so let's move on. 
49ers Darkhorse: Alex Smith - I think they'll be throwing quite a bit in this one, despite the Bengals decent secondary. 220+ yards and two scores for Smith. 
Bengals Darkhorse: Jerome Simpson - Go with Jerome Simpson again, he'll have a big day. Shipley is out and Green will get a lot of attention. He almost matched Green's targets last week and should get more moving forward. 

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
This is the early line on this, with them assuming Kafka will be taking QB duties. I don't think Vick will play, can never be too careful with that stuff. Either way, I like the Eagles in a bounce back week. The defense really needs to step up, but the Giants offense isn't exactly in sync. The Eagles should win this by a couple touchdowns and I expect a really nice day from LeSean McCoy. 
Giants Darkhorse: Domenik Hixon - Look here if Nicks is still dinged up, and if he's healthy of course. Only a nice WR3 play in deep leagues. 
Eagles Darkhorse: Brent Celek - If Vick can't go, Young/Kafka will look for the big tight end quite often.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+9)
Call me crazy, but I think the Bills cover this week. They won't win, but I could see them losing by only a touchdown. The stadium is going to be rocking in Buffalo. I have familiy in upstate New York, huge Bills fans, and I used to live up there as well. I can tell you that there is no shortage of Bills backers, and they are loving this team. The Bills will keep riding this wave of optimism to battle with the Patriots. Should be a high scoring, fantasy packed game. 
Patriots Darkhorse: Danny Woodhead - He'll get more carries with Hernandez out, and they'll go with more back sets. He'll also have quite a bit of receptions out of the backfield. Solid flex play. 
Bills Darkhorse: Donald Jones - I like him even if Johnson is fine, which I'm sure he is. He's getting more and more targets and seems to be in sync with Fitzpatrick.

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
The Texans are still slightly overrated. They'll have a good record and get a lot of hype due to the weak division they are in. They're playing a real team this week, and they'll lose by at least a touchdown. Arian Foster or no Arian Foster, it won't matter. Ben Tate is doing 90% of what Arian Foster can do anyway. The Saints defense needs to keep them around, bend but not break. If they can do that, they'll be fine this week. 
Texans Darkhorse: Jacoby Jones - They'll be throwing a lot, and as a #2 receiver, can't go wrong with playing him as a WR3.
Saints Darkhorse: Lance  Moore - Struggled first week back but don't be discouraged, he'll rebound next week against a still questionable Texan secondary. 

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Cleveland Browns
Two disappointing teams here, but I think the Dolphins are just flat out better, even at the Dawg Pound. Daniel Thomas looked very good last week, giving Miami the between the tackles runner that Miami needed, and Brandon Marshall continues to impress. Colt McCoy is still trying to get timing down with his receivers, and the Dolphins will do a good job against Peyton Hillis. 
Dolphins Darkhorse: Daniel Thomas - Start riding him, and start benching Reggie, all you that own him. Thomas is a better between the tackles runner and will fare well fantasy wise. 
Browns Darkhorse: Greg Little - Colt is starting to trust him more and more, and he's a beast in the redzone. I tihnk this is the week he finds the endzone. 

Denver Broncos @ Tennesee Titans (-7)
The Titans looked much, much better last week. The Broncos looked bad again, so let's take the Titans to cover this line. Kenny Britt is a monster. I would low on him coming into the season, mostly due to the possibility of suspension and I thought Chris Johnson would miss a chunk of the regular season. Even with CJ not running the ball very well, you still have to bring that extra defender into the box, and that's trouble when Kenny Britt is on the outside. He's turning into a top five player at his position. 
Broncos Darkhorse: Eric Decker - He'll show out again. Regardless of who's healthy for Denver. Big target, runs fantastic routes. Good play as WR3.
Titans Darkhorse: Nate Washington - Riding with him again, he'll get a majority of the targets outside of Britt, and will do something with them. 

Detroit Lions (-4) @ Minnesota Vikings
Layup of the week. I'm trying not to get too excited about the Lions, they've had a lot fall right for them early on, but they sure are fun to watch. This has more to do with how low I am on the Vikings. The Lions will stack the box and make McNabb beat them. McNabb will not beat them. The only thing that can get Minnesota a W is Peterson putting up a superhuman performance. Lions simply outscore them. 
Lions Darkhorse: Brandon Pettigrew - He'll finally break out and be worth of a start this week. Disappointing thus far. 
Vikings Darkhorse: Bernard Berrien - Let's bank on him catching a bomb. The Vikings are a mess. Only worth starting if you're really hurting at WR.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 
Cam Newton is throwing up yards, but he still has a long way to go. Don't get me wrong, I wasn't expecting this at all, but let's not get carried away. Many of his yards, especially in Week 1, came from bombs that he hoped Steve Smith could run under, and he has. 
Jaguars Darkhorse: Mike Thomas - Gabbert will do a better job putting him in a position to make plays. The targets are there, the QB is not. 
Panthers Darkhorse: DenAngelo Williams - He finally breaks 80+ yards and finds the endzone. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
The Chiefs are in for a long season. I don't believe they're playing hard for Todd Haley anymore, and that always means trouble. Not just getting blown out every week trouble, but tough to wach and torture for their fans trouble. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers win this by four touchdowns or more, they just need to be able to start punching it in when they get in the redzone. 
Chiefs Darkhorse: N/A - I would not play a single Chief this week. I don't want to put someone up for the sake of putting a name there. I don't believe anyone will be worthy of a start. I can't argue against starting Bowe, but realize what you may be getting yourself into. 
Chargers Darkhorse: Mike Tolbert - He'll have a handful of catches, and find the endzone. Not bad for a flex play. 

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ St Louis Rams
The Rams aren't looking as good as I thought they would. I predicted preseason they would stay even or regress, but I thought the offense would at least click. Look what McDaniels did to Kyle Orton last year, you're telling me Bradford shouldn't be throwing for 300+ yards with a 60% completion percentage every week? I think he should. Let's hope he gets to rolling soon, I like this young Rams team. They obviously need Steven Jackson back, but I think the Ravens cover even if he does play. 
Ravens Darkhorse: Joe Flacco - I think they'll throw a lot and he'll put up 300+ yards and two to three scores.
Rams Darkhorse: Danario Alexander - I expected MSW to look better Monday night, and he did. I think he's their #1 receiver clear cut here on out, I would look at Alexander for a WR3 option. At least the Rams will be airing it out a lot. 

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders
If this was an early kickoff, I'd take the Raiders. East coast teams usually have trouble going West early, but it's a late game so the Jets will be fine. They'll run and pass equally, keep the Oakland defense on their toes, and get in a few times. The Raiders will struggle to score. The Jets will be able to put eight guys in the box ot counter McFadden due to their corner play. This should be fairly easy, almost made my layup of the week. 
Jets Darkhorse: Derrick Mason - He'll find some space in the slot. Should get four or five catches. 
Raiders Darkhorse: Derek Hagan - Taking a flier here. If you really, really need a WR, give him a shot. 

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
I still need to see more from the Bucs before I'll be convinced they are repeating last years success. They needed every minute of that game Sunday to beat a bad Viking team after losing to the Lions, who didn't even play well at all. The defending South champions, coming off a win against the "Dream Team" are underdogs? Give me them, please. 
Falcons Darkhorse: Julio Jones - He'll be a solid WR3 play. He'll definitely make you say "wow" once in awhile. 
Bucs Darkhorse: Josh Freeman - Don't worry about starting him this week. 250+ yards, couple scores and some rushing yards is to be expected. 

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are terrible. I'm not exactly sold on the Cards either, but they'll have no problem covering this. The Seahawks won't be able to slow down their aerial attack, and Beanie will probably even run well. 
Cardinals Darkhorse: Early Doucet - Targets are encouraging, and eventually his production will catch up, especially with all the attention Fitz gets. 
Seahawks Darkhorse: N/A - If for some reason you have a Seahawk, don't play him. 

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler is a frustrated man right now. Not only did he lose the beautiful Kristin Cavallari, but he can't keep opposing defenses away. Body language is a dead giveaway, and his is terrible. Isn't his always terrible? Sure, but right now it's off the charts. He's tired of receivers dropping passes, tired of his line not touching anyone and tired of life in general. It won't get any easier for him against Green Bay, who I think was looking past Carolina and almost got caught. The Packers will be up for this one, and as long as they don't have a 20 penalty game like last year the first time these two teams met, they'll be fine and win by at least a touchdown. 
Packers Darkhorse: James Starks - Keep riding him, it will only get better. Flex play and borderline RB2.
Bears Darkhorse: Johnny Knox - I think he plays well. Doesn't have Hesters targets yet, but Cutler is going to go to who he trusts more and more. He doesn't trust Hester. Go with Knox. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
This game was almost my layup of the week, but home teams at night in prime time games scare me a bit, so I'll stay away. It doesn't change the fact that the Colts are horrible, and the Steelers aren't exactly the best remedy to break out of an offensive slump. The Steelers could very well put up their second shutout in a row in this one. I'm a diehard Colts fan, and this is tough, tough football to watch. 
Steelers Darkhorse: Antonio Brown - Clear cut #2 receiver there now, good enough for a WR3 for me. 
Colts Darkhorse: Reggie Wayne - Not a darkhorse, just one of only two Colts I would start. Dallas Clark is the other. 

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
There won't be a line on this game until later in the week, when it becomes clear who will and will not play for Dallas. Fully healthy, I would guess this would sit around the Vegas line (DAL -4.5 to -5.5) but you never know. Without Romo, I would expect it to become closer to a pick 'em. Jones, Dez or Newman won't affect the line too much. If it's less than a touchdown, which I expect it will be anyway, take the Cowboys. They'll keep playing better and better, they have loads of talent, especially offensively. 
Redskins Darkhorse: Fred Davis - Sticking with him, love what I see. Targets, receptions, redzone. Everything.
Cowboys Darkhorse: Demarco Murray - With Felix ailing, Murray will see an increased workload and could have a really nice Monday night. 

Enjoy the games this weekend, best of luck to everyone.

2011: 14-18
Layup Of The Week: 2-0

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