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Contributed by:
Danny Fresh
Last Updated: Sep 27, 2011 3:37 PM |
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Welcome back to What We Learned. Every week we’ll take a look at key information we can garner from how the NFL’s previous weekend has played out. We are not looking for the obvious pieces of info we already knew. I’m assuming you all know that Adrian Peterson is really talented. What this column looks at is, week to week, how are coaching strategies, injuries and player developments and performance effect how we make our choices about our fantasy rosters moving forward.
The third week of the NFL is always a pivotal one for fantasy assessment, as it’s the week where we start to separate flukes from trends. One must distinguish Any Given Sunday from Every Single Sunday.
As always I encourage you to not over-react to any one game, but rather look towards trends and long term insight. We should always be watching and learning every week. With that in mind here is a look at what we learned and what we think we learned from week three:
Giants/Eagles
What we learned: This is a big win for the Giants, but a giant win for Eli Manning owners. The Eagles focused on locking Hakeem Nicks out—and to Eli’s credit—he didn’t force it to Nicks but rather spread the wealth. After a terrible start to the season, Manning seems to have found himself at the perfect time. If you had any hope that Vick was going to make it through the season whole, you now know that was a foolish thought.
What we think we learned: Everyone has been waiting for this Victor Cruz since last pre-season. I suggest waiting another week to see if he can repeat this kind of success. What Cruz’s success does highlight is that young speedster receivers with some hops might be tough for Nnamdi Asomugha to cover at this point in his career. Jason Pierre-Paul is everywhere and Kenny Phillips is coming on. The long tradition of stout Giants defenses looks like it’s in good hands with the next generation. If they can hold on until a few key guys get back from injury, they will be an interesting defense down the stretch. Also, the Lowe’s “Don’t Stop” commercial is a heart-warming winner. What? Oh, ok, next game.
Broncos/Titans
What we learned: Nate Washington is your “must add” this week if he’s out on the waivers. Titans defense, I declare you starter worthy. Erick Decker didn’t have a huge week, but followed his breakout last week with a team-high of seven receptions and 48 yards this week. Consider him entrenched as a Broncos starter.
What we think we learned: Matt Hasselbeck just keeps rolling up stats. With Chris Johnson’s weak start and the terrible loss of Kenny Britt, what Hasselbeck has been doing is damn impressive. Elizabeth Hasselbeck’s brother-in-law is still a solid QB for your squad. Talking about Johnson, he has vowed that the Titans will fix their running game. I’ll give him one more week, but then he loses must-start status. Jared Cook is a player to watch in the wake of the Britt injury.
Cowboys/Redskins
What we learned: Weird game. That’s the Felix Jones we have been expecting all season. I keep saying this, but the guy has a big season in front of him. He’s an RB2 with upside. If you can still get him at RB3 prices, pull the trigger. I don’t love him against the Lions this coming week, however.
What we think we learned: Roy Helu - not yet, but soon.
Saints/Texans
What we learned: The Texans defense has made strides, but they aren’t ready to handle elite offenses yet. Three weeks, three Jimmy Graham shout outs. The guy is a STUD . Want an amazing stat? Graham averages 16.8 yards per catch this season. That is higher than any season of Antonio Gates’ career. Graham and Darren Sproles are perfect toys for this offense. They are exactly the kind of weapons that Sean Payton and Drew Brees dreamt of with Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush - but with more heart, less complaining and better results. Arian Foster owners, this isn’t cute anymore. Ben Tate is a major threat.
What we think we learned: You have to like what you saw out of Mark Ingram this week. It looks like he is turning a corner. I would still rather have Sproles this season. This season, if you don’t have a stud QB and TE you don’t stand a chance. Guys are putting up monster stats. Don’t wait for things to level off. If someone has a QB rotation of Matt Schaub and, let’s say Matthew Stafford (very possible), make them a trade offer right now. This article will still be here for you when you get back.
Falcons/Buccaneers
What we learned: LeGarrette Blount, you are who we thought you were. Hellloooooo Julio Jones. We like your game. We are smitten. Now give us consistency.
What we think we learned: I seem to be the only one out there saying this publicly, but Matt Ryan is not progressing and he is running out of excuses:
“He needs a veteran TE.”
Enter the great Tony Gonzalez in ’09.
“He needs a true threat opposite Roddy White.”
Enter the dynamic Julio Jones.
“This is the year Ryan would make the leap!”
Well, his completion percentage is down, he had 9 INTs last year, he already 4 this year against just 5 TDs and his QB rating is down by 10 points.
Most importantly his team, that was 13-3 last year is 1-2 right now. He was drafted as a low QB1. He’s playing like a low QB2.
Steelers/Colts
What we learned: We knew the Colts were a mess. What we learned is that the Steelers really are in trouble. The offensive line is as bad as we feared, however…
What we think we learned: …what is much harder to wrap our heads around is the decline of the once dominant Steelers defense. They are a step slower across the board. Are they serviceable? Most certainly. But they are no longer a difference maker. Yes, I know Troy Polamalu had a fumble return for a TD, but this is the Colts. Without Peyton Manning. Heck, without Kerry Collins! Yet the Steelers still gave up 20 points, had no INTs and 1 sack. If you have Pittsburgh, it’s because you drafted the first defense taken in your draft. You made a mistake. It happens to the best of us.
Lions/Vikings
What we learned: If you read last column form last week (and if not, here’s your chance www.footballnation.com/content/what-we-learned-from-week-2/9053/2/) you know I’ve been all about the Lions offense. Get any of them you can. Not just the big names off Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best. Get Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, Titus Young – heck, even get Tony Scheffler if you can find a spot. I promise, you’ll just have more fun. Yes, we all want to win, but it’s your fantasy, have fun while doing it! The Lions and Bills are the feel-good story of the year. Get in on it.
What we think we learned: Kyle Rudolph can play in this league. The Vikings need to get him more integrated in to their game planning.
Dolphins/Browns
What we learned: Young RBs are the apples of fantasy owners’ eyes. This game provided important info on a pair of young backs. It’s Daniel Thomas, not Reggie Bush. Done and done. We finally got a look at the heralded Monterio Hardesty and he looked strong.
What we think we learned: What was particularly impressive about Hardesty is he showed us a complete game – Not just rushing, but receiving and—what is usually young RB kryptonite—he was good in pass blocking. He’s not replacing Peyton Hillis, but expect a bit more of a time-share in the Browns backfield moving forward. Joe Haden is the real deal. We will be putting him on the short list of players who make you think twice about starting your WR against him.
Jaguars/Panthers
What we learned: That there is simply nothing better than football played in terrible weather in High Definition. It just looks awesome. DeAngelo Williams is in freefall, and frankly can’t be considered a starter at this point. This isn’t saying much but Jonathan Stewart is the more reliable of the two Panthers RBs at this point. Josh Scobee can kick in the rain!
What we think we learned: I would love to make a declarative statement about either Blain Gabbert or Cam Newton, but based on the weather conditions it’s hard to do. What is impressive is both of them brought composure to very difficult playing circumstances and an overall sloppy game. That’s a good sign for both young signal callers.
Bills/Patriots
What we learned: What a game! Tom Brady is human. I’ve been saying it all season (really, go read my past columns) - this Bills offense is legit. I hope you read them and picked up some Bills before it was too late. Good luck affording them now. You can go ahead and drop Chad Ochocinco. Sad, but true. With the points the Patriots put up and the defense they have, or don’t have, every game will be a shoot out. Shoot outs = Fantasy Gold!
What we think we learned: Fred Jackson can be your RB1, at least for this season. Time to put Donald Jones on your watch list. The Bill’s may have given the league the playbook on defending Brady. With the vertically challenged Patriots receivers, Brady is throwing line drive laser beams. Get your hands up in the passing lanes, and you are going to get deflections and interceptions.
49ers/Bengals
What we learned: Contrary to popular belief Vernon Davis actually is playing this season. This is the year the Bengals just let Andy Dalton play and work it out. As such, things are going to be very inconsistent for Cincinnati.
What we think we learned: Frank Gore looks done. It’s too bad, because he really has been a warrior for the 49ers. While great at times, his career never quite lived up to the potential. You know who else will never live up to the potential? Michael Crabtree.
Ravens/Rams
What we learned: Torrey Smith. Other than that, what can one say about this blowout?
What we think we learned: After destroying the Steelers and Rams but laying an egg against the Titans, next weeks game vs. the Jets should give us an accurate read on where these Ravens are really at.
Jets/Raiders
What we learned: It’s hard to believe, but the Raiders out-bullied the Jets. Darren McFadden has reached a new level. He is now a candidate for the top overall pick next year, and has to be in the discussion with Adrian Peterson as the top all-around RB in football. Dustin Keller just quietly keeps putting up stats. Mark Sanchez trusts him, and if he’s someone’s TE2 and you don’t have a starter, Keller is a guy to target in a trade.
What we think we learned: Denarius Moore is the second best weapon on the Raiders. He reminds me a lot of Mike Wallace, but with even more “attack” in him. He’s a must have in a dynasty league and is roster-worthy in standard redraft leagues as well.
Packer/Bears
What we learned: Sometimes what we learn is that we haven’t learned anything. Just when it looked like we knew James Starks had passed Ryan Grant, Grant has a near 100-yard game and Starks does nothing. The league is loaded with young, talented TEs like Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Dustin Keller. None of them has the ceiling of hyper-athletic Jermichael Finley.
What we think we learned: Dane Sanzenbacher has increased his receptions each game and has TDs in back-to-back weeks. He’s intriguing. On a related note, Jay Cutler is terrible and his O-line is worse.
Chargers/Chiefs
What we learned: Ryan Matthews, that’s more like it. We can expect a work split for Matthews and Mike Tolbert to look a lot more like 75%/25% moving forward. Dexter McCluster is clearly who you want over Thomas Jones, although neither is a thrilling option.
What we think we learned: Antonio Gates owners in redraft leagues, pick up Randy McMichael and remain calm. Gates will give you some big days still. Gates owners in dynasty leagues…PANIC. Seriously, I know how much it hurts, I really, really do. But the end is near. Foot problems in aging players don’t get better. Start lining up your TE of the future.
Cardinals/Seahawks
What we learned: With all due respect, I’m just not going to spend too much time on these awful teams. Two quick thoughts - What has happened to Zach Miller? Should we send out a search party? If you haven’t yet, drop him.
What we think we learned: Second thought - Welcome back Sydney Rice. Sure it was against the Cardinals, but it looks like Rice remembers how to catch a football.
I look forward to your comments below and I'll do my best to respond to them all. See you next week!
The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.