Find out what Jon Millman took away from Week 4 and how it will apply to the rest of the 2011 campaign. This is an example of the premium articles at FFChamps.com, along with great strategy you get amazing tools to dominate your league.. Weekly player rankigns, Injury Reports, Waiver Wire advice, Strength of Schedule charts, and MORE...

Random Thoughts

-400 yard games are the new 300 yard game in 2011. It feels like there are two 400 yarders each week nowadays and already a 500 yarder (Tom Brady). If you convert Mike Vicks 75 rush yards to pass yards in fantasy points and he threw for 600 yards worth of points.  In 2010 there were (12) 400 yard games all season. So far in 2011 there have already been 8 through 4 weeks.

-Danny Amendola –It looked like he was healing ahead of schedule, but the latest is he had a setback and may require surgery. That would likely end his season. STL looks like they are struggling. Victims of the lockout and not enough time to install a new offense.

-Bye Weeks start this week, plan ahead if you can. This week – BAL, CLE, DAL, MIA, STL, WAS.  Not a huge week as far as fantasy offenses. Next week isn’t so bad either.  Week 7 has a bunch of fantasy offenses, 8 also. Week 9 not so much and then in a scheduling anomaly, there are no teams off week 10 before 4 teams take off Week 11.

-So much for “Dream Teams”. Some of the preseason favorites are struggling to get to .500.
PHI (1-3) DAL (2-2) PIT (2-2)  NYJ (2-2)  ATL (2-2)

-Teams with winning records that were not the consensus to start the season as playoff bound:
DET (4-0)  WAS (3-1)  NYG (3-1)  SF (3-1)  BUF (3-1)  TEN (3-1) 

-Anyone out there other than me afraid of the “1 o’clock curse”?  To me whenever the majority of my team is playing the 1 pm game I invariably lose. I LOVE it when an opponent has all of his key guys going early. Maybe it’s always wanting last licks, I don’t know… all I know is it is real.

-Matt Stafford was WAY off on his early throws in that DAL game and the Lions got off to a slow start. Maybe he gets too amped up as they’ve gotten into big holes on the road the last 2 games. They happened to pull them off which will help long term, but you can’t keep doing that to your team. Maybe they need to run a little to start games to calm him down.

-Maybe Mike Vick is like Rocky. When he’s down and out and has to prove himself (like Rocky 1) he is unstoppable, but when he’s rich (like 1^st half of Rocky 3 with the Ferraris, robots, etc) he isn’t putting in the same time and effort and gets his ass kicked by Clubber Lang. Then he goes down and out again (2^nd half of Rocky 3) and comes out better than ever. Maybe they need to take away that $100-million contract and tell them there was a clerical error and they’ll readdress after the season.

-For those that didn’t watch the Bears/Panthers game for a minute it looked like Devin Hester was going to set the new return record but got caught by the last guy at the sideline. The very next return opportunity he got, he took to the house. That guy IS ridiculous.

-Laurent Robinson – He will be the hot pickup this week, but they are off next week and then Miles Austin will be back so he won’t have much value.

-If you don’t watch the Fantasy Gameday LIVE show Ian and I do each Sunday from 11:15-12:15 ET you missed out on the nugget that we liked Jared Cook to have a good game (2 recs, 93 yds, 80-yard TD). Catch the show this week for some more good stuff.  Just come to the site, it plays from the homepage.

-Speaking of FFChampsTV, I’ll be doing a Mailbag episode Wednesday night from 8 – 8:30 pm ET so get your questions ready and tweet them to me: @FFChamps_Jon

-Mike Wallace’s 100-yard receiving game streak ended at 6.

-Chris Johnson’s 100-yard rushing streak just started at 1.

-Michael Turner is very underrated. Everyone seems to want to say he’s “struggling”.  But so far in 4 games:
                1 – 100 rush yds, 3 recs 40 yds
                2 – 114 rush yds, TD,  1 rec 32 yds
                3 – 20 rush yds
                4 – 70 rush yds, 2 TD,  2 rec 18 yds

That’s 3 out of 4 good games, pretty good for a guy that’s drafted as a RB 2. The most interesting aspect of it all, is for a guy who doesn’t catch the ball, he’s getting almost 2 catches a game and averaging 15 yards per catch. He gets no love.

-Speaking of underrated… Matt Schaub, MJD, Santana Moss are a few more that stick out

-Tom Brady still likes to throw the deep ball but they just don’t have the personnel they used to

-Matt Forte – 2^nd in league in receptions, and like I said during the Gameday LIVE show - the Stat Projector showed me that he’d be rushing more soon, I’d call 205 yds “more”.  I will post some more of my Stat Projector ideas later in the week or so. Check out the tool and you decide which trends have to change:  http://www.ffchamps.com/p/resources.statProjector/

-Atlanta is a team that isn’t in a groove just yet, but once it gets going will be explosive. Defenses can’t defend all of the weapons on ATL they just need more time together to get on the same page. This week I finally saw some signs of that. Give them a few more weeks and this offense will be prolific. Gonzo looks healthy and is still very productive and 2 top WRs that rival any pair in the game.

-Speaking of Julio Jones, along with AJ Green and Denarius Moore in OAK these 3 rookie WRs and the incredible Cam Newton are proving to be a star studded rookie class.

-I wasn’t sure on using Beanie Wells this week in a league with Ian but he was convinced it was the right call. That paid off.

-Stevan Ridley – I liked what I saw in the preseason and have been high on him ever since. I drafted him early in a keeper league and have had patience with him on benches. I think he will pay off in the 2^nd half of the season. Their rushing schedule gets easier after their bye Week 7 and PIT Week 8. Maybe BJGE will struggle a bit and finally Ridley will earn a big enough role to be used as an RB 2. For now he’s a flex at best.

-The Lions have now won 8 in a row in the regular season dating back to last year. Their reemergence reminds me of the Rams when they went from bad team to greatest show on turf and a Dynasty
 
Cam Newton
I am pretty sure Lenny Kravitz had Cam Newton in mind when he wrote: “(Cam) was born long ago. (He) is The Chosen, (He’s) The One.”

The game just seems to come slow for Cam Newton.  I can’t believe some of the things I see him do each week. He has the touch of Joe Montana, the arm strength of Mike Vick, the size of Daunte Culpepper, the running ability of McNabb with a little bit of Mike Vick, without the top speed. He has pocket awareness, escapability, and he finds the open guy.  Or he throws it away or runs and slides. His throws are remarkable. He really is a Stud QB already. He’s made Steve Smith of 2011 a castaway in FF land look like the Steve Smith of 2005. He’s making Jeremy Shockey of 2011 look like the Shockey of 2005 also. It’s not like he has Matthew Stafford’s weapons. 

Cam Newton is doing to the NFL what Reggie Bush was supposed to do. I think it is Reggie’s struggles in the NFL that made everyone doubt that he could dominate at this level but he’s proving to be a truly elite talent.
He’s treating the NFL like a video game. First 2 games 400+ pass yards in each. Game 3 was in a monsoon, so we’ll give him a pass. Game 4 was 374 yards, pass TD, 2 Rush TDs. Not to mention that he threw another TD to Shockey that would have put him over 400 yards again but it was called back on a silly penalty. So every game so far NOT in a monsoon he basically threw for 400 yards and had a monster fantasy day.  I’d say he’s arrived.
 
 
Some of my “Sell High” guys:

Willis McGahee – The only part of this offense I want to rely on for now is the pass game, specifically Lloyd and Decker. I’d see if you can get something, this performance can’t last.

Chris Johnson – I still think he will get a little better, but man it is brutal watching the lack of holes this line opens up. See if you can get decent value for him after a decent outing, otherwise hold on and hold out hope. I will be on the 2 leagues I have him as they don’t allow trading.

Mike Vick – He had a great game and as long as he plays 4 quarters he will help your team. I have him in a league, and the 2 weeks he didn’t play the 4^th quarter I just lost. He will be a feast or famine QB all year, and if you can move out and into Drew Brees or some other very good QB may be the time to get away from this train wreck of a team that will keep spiraling if the losses keep mounting.

DeSean Jackson – See above. Had a great game, see if you can get top talent.

Frank Gore – He powered through his injury pretty well, but let’s face it - he has got a lot of football mileage on him and breaking down is nothing new to Gore. He’s been a fantasy producer for years and probably will continue to have good games for a while but if you can get a younger RB now is the time. Kendall Hunter looked good with the action he got this week, so they may have a time share down the road.
 
 
Ranking moves

We’re constantly updating the Rest of the Way Rankings throughout the week, but the major overhauls after each Sunday. It’s then that we have the concrete evidence we need to make some changes. Sometimes we are slow to take some trends into account and sometimes we make drastic moves. We’ve learned a lot from posting public rankings for the past 12 years and some of it is simply to not jump to conclusions. We try and wait for trends to emerge and then wait for them to validate themselves before jumping too deep. Here are some of the moves we made this week:

UP

Matt Hasselbeck - He's running this offense well, the big hurdle will be lack of weapons without Britt.

Arian Foster - He's back and he looked great. Still at risk for a re-injury (what was with giving him 33 touches in first game back??), but ride him while you've got him and consider him a top 5 option.

Ryan Mathews - Getting it done through the air as much as on the ground and looks like a PPR machine right now.

Darren Sproles - In PPR he's now a RB 2

Stevan Ridley - Looks to be earning more and more snaps each week, at some point he could take the starting job.

Ryan Torain - We are close to punting on the WAS RBs. Shanahan strikes again, and he makes a dud possible for any RB you use on his teams. Looks like Torain is next in line for the starting gig. Early in the preseason he was our favorite to be the #1, but he was injured and Hightower emerged. Then we thought Helu would take over. Now Torain is the guy. I prefer to avoid these headaches.

Jon Stewart - He's getting more touches than DeAngelo and catching a lot of passes. Solid PPR flex RB.

Marques Colston - Knocked the rust off with a handful of snaps last week but

Miles Austin - Should be back to 100% when come back from bye

Laurent Robinson - Worth a pickup will be back to smaller role once Austin is back.

Eric Decker - This guy is making plays each week and getting to the end zone regularly. Double digit targets back to back weeks and he is for real.

Julio Jones - Has had 2 very good games in a row and only 1 stinker so far. This combo is turning into an elite pair. He has long speed but they throw him a lot of short balls to get him the ball and at times he’s a focal point of offense.

AJ Green - Getting targets and making plays every week and a big part of his team’s offensive plans

Sid Rice - He's their only option and they'll likely always be behind.  Always an upside option as a WR 3.

Aaron Hernandez - Looks to be back in a week or 2 and will vie with Jimmy Graham for most explosive TE in NFL. See if you can trade for him now.

Ed Dickson - This guy gets a lot of targets and can be a very capable starter week in and week out.

Jimmy Graham - He's the most explosive TE in the game right now and on the right offense. Only reason he’s not top TE on our board is Witten has done it for longer so gets the consistency edge.
 
 
DOWN

Rashard Mendenhall - Scored a TD last week but pulled his hamstring a little and missed most of the second half. Looks to be OK for next week but is now a bit dicier than he was.

Adrian Peterson - He's still the elite RB, but his offense's woes and other great RB options have dropped him from top dog status.

Peyton Hillis - Seems to be losing some of his grip on the full-time role. Madden curse strikes again.

Ben Tate - With Foster back he's back to a bench player and handcuff

Tim Hightower - Looks like the Torain Train has rolled through with Helu behind him. Soon #3 on depth chart? Funny, not like he's playing that bad - on pace for 1200 total yds 40 recs and 8 TDs

Kendall Hunter - Looked like a guy who will earn carries even if/when Gore is healthy

Andre Johnson - Will miss time, sounds like multiple games at least with a bad hammy and their bye isn't until Week 11. Season production could be down 20%+.

Mario Manningham - Looks to be losing job to Victor Cruz

Santonio Holmes - The team is just not operating well and his production is down.

Danny Amendola - Hearing he suffered a setback and may need surgery.

 
 
 
 
 

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