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Fantasy Football's The Quarter Turn
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Contributed by:
Jason Stolberg
Last Updated: Oct 05, 2011 1:27 PM |
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This is a quarterly mishmash of thoughts and observations on the top 10 of each position in the fantasy football season, and we're starting off with the first quarter of the 2011 fantasy football season. The Top 10 is ranked using a standard PPR scoring system, including 4 pts per TD for QBs, 6 pts per TD for other positions, 1.0 PPR for RBs, WRs, and TEs.
Quarterbacks
No Surprise Here:
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are fighting it out for top honors amongst fantasy signal-callers, which is exactly what most people who drafted them were hoping for when spending those early picks for them. Both are averaging over 32 points per game, and will keep just about any fantasy team in the running each and every week. Drew Brees is not that far behind in the four spot and averaging close to 30 points per game. Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are all on pace to break Dan Marino’s passing record of 5084 yards, and it’s looking increasingly liking that at least one of them will get there.
Shock and Awe:
The most obvious surprise here has to be Cam Newton, who is also on pace to break Marino’s passing record. No one saw this coming in the preseason, as Newton was lucky to be drafted in most leagues, and if he was, he was drafted as a low end back up. Newton has shown a penchant for big numbers, as he has a live arm and isn’t afraid to use it. He has single-handedly brought Steve Smith’s fantasy prospects back from the dead.
Not to be overshadowed, the other big surprise has to be Matt Hasselbeck’s renaissance with the Tennessee Titans. Hasselbeck is another one that wasn’t drafted in a lot of leagues, and was being looked at as mostly a place-holder for rookie Jake Locker. Instead, Hasselbeck is on pace for over 4000 yards and over 30 TDs, both of which would be career highs for the 36 year old quarterback.
Bad Juju:
The most obvious name from amongst those sitting outside the top 10 that most thought would be in the top 10 is Philip Rivers. Not that he’s far outside, sitting around the 11 spot, but that’s quite a dip for those who drafted him with the idea that he was almost a shoe-in to be a top 5 QB. Currently, Rivers is only on pace for 20 touchdown passes, which would be a career low as a starter. A big part of his off-mark production has to be the ailing of favored target Antonio Gates, as Rivers has been forced to check down to the running backs far more than he’s been used to. If Gates is able to return healthy during the second half the season, Rivers might make some noise yet.
Another surprise that leaves a bad taste in the mouth is the plight of Ben Roethlisberger, who has been a solid starting fantasy quarterback for a couple of years now. Big Ben is on pace for a healthy 4400 yards passing, but is only on pace for an anemic 12 touchdowns for the entire year. For comparison, Rodgers and Brady have 12+ touchdowns after just four games. In fact, Roethlisberger is being out-paced by such luminaries as Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, and Tarvaris Jackson; and with the Steelers’ offensive line woes, things don’t look like they’ll get better any time soon.
Running Backs
No Surprise Here:
It was actually tough to find no surprises in this list, but Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Lesean McCoy, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson being in the top 10 in a PPR league probably aren’t stretches. The order they’re in probably is (and we’ll cover that in a second), but these five were in the top 10 last year. Forte was helped by 205 rushing yards in Week 4, but has been very consistent due to the sheer amount of receptions he gets (26 so far). Run DMC has also been very consistent, and looks like he’s building on his breakout season last year. Lesean McCoy and Ray Rice were both considered the class of the pass-catching running backs, and that’s holding true.
Shock and Awe:
Where do we start with this group? First, Forte being out in front after four games is a certain surprise, but as was mentioned earlier, his 205 yards in Week 4 certainly helps. What about Ryan Mathews breaking out in a big way, making his way into the top 5? Mathews is on pace for over 2000 total yards and 12 TDs, which is far and away more than any owner expected to get from him. His running mate, Mike Tolbert, is also in the top 10, but has been fading the last couple of games; barring an injury to Mathews, Tolbert should be out of the top 10 by the halfway mark of the season.
Then there’s Fred Jackson, who does nothing but prove everyone wrong who discounts him. He’s a 30 year old running back, but doesn’t have that much mileage on him; he’s looked spry in pacing the Bills’ running attack. Jackson is currently on pace for almost the same amount of total yardage and TDs as Ryan Mathews, and Jackson probably cost a little less in fantasy drafts.
Lastly, we have the diminutive Darren Sproles, who has really made the departed Reggie Bush look bad by taking the same role Bush had for the Saints and turning it into a true weapon position. Sproles is averaging nearly 9 yards per carry, and is on pace for over 100 receptions, almost 1500 total yards, and 12 TDs. Sproles was drafted at best as end of the bench fodder or was a waiver wire pick up, and he’s returning huge dividends.
Bad Juju:
With so many surprises in the top 10, there was bound to be a bunch of disappointments outside of it. We can add Peyton Hillis, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Frank Gore to the long list of bitterness; we can also make a case for Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles, but injuries can be excused. If we’re having a conversation about pure fantasy letdown though, the conversation has to begin and end with Chris Johnson.
CJ2K will be lucky if he’s CJ1K after holding out all of training camp and the preseason, and he came back just before the season opener with the obligatory “big contract holdout hangover”. Johnson has yet to sniff the endzone, and even with his first 100 yard effort in Week 4, he’s still only averaging 75 total yards, which projects out to only 1200 total yards. Ugh. I expect Johnson to get better as the season goes along, but it may end up being too little too late for fantasy owners that are falling further and further into a hole while he finds his way back to productivity.
Wide Receivers
No Surprise Here:
Wide Receivers have fewer surprises than running backs and even quarterbacks, as Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson and even Stevie Johnson are either right where most people had them, or pretty close. Megatron isn’t surprising, but his domination is still impressive, as he’s caught two TDs in each game so far this year, which is on pace for a mind boggling 32 TDs on the season. Even if Johnson slows his pace considerably, at this point 20 TDs are not out of the question and he could challenge Randy Moss’ record that he set a few years ago with the Patriots. Mike Wallace is turning out to be the only good thing going for the Steelers right now, and if Roethlisberger is able to get things going again, Wallace may actually improve on his current 100 reception, 1800 yards, and 8 TD pace.
Unfortunately for Andre Johnson owners, Johnson’s hamstring injury will probably keep him out for three or more games, which means he’ll have a tough time staying in the top 10 the rest of this year. Stevie Johnson was either in the top 10 or close to it in most PPR scoring formats last year, and he should stay solidly in the top 10, as he’s on pace for almost 100 receptions, over 1200 yards, and 12 TDs.
Shock and Awe:
The Human Slot machine Wes Welker is the smallest player in this group, yet is the biggest producer and the biggest surprise of the season. Most owners drafted Welker as a WR2, so his ridiculous 40 catch, 616 yards, and 5 TDs in the first four games have most of his owners either undefeated or close to it. Welker probably won’t keep up his current herculean pace, and even if he dropped to half his current production for the rest of the season, he’d still end up with over 100 receptions, over 1500 yards, and over 12 TDs. Amazing.
The other surprise that sticks out here is Eric Decker, who took advantage of early injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal to move up into solid fantasy starter consideration. It’ll be interesting to see how Decker does the rest of the season now that Lloyd is getting healthy and Royal will be set to return in the next couple of weeks, but I get the feeling that Decker is here to stay. He probably won’t finish in the top 10, heck, he may not finish in the top 20, but the arrow is definitely pointed up for this young guy.
Bad Juju:
Larry Fitzgerald seems to be going through some growing pains with new quarterback Kevin Kolb, but as these two get on the same page, Fitz will start climbing the rankings. Roddy White has consistently been in the top 3 the last couple of seasons, so his start has to be very disappointing for his owners. White is still on pace for over 1200 yards and over 100 receptions, but he only has one touchdown so far as teams seem to be keying on him in the red zone, and we’ve learned recently that he’s been battling a deep thigh bruise to boot. White’s scoring production is bound to pick up as the season goes along, and if he can just get on a pace to finish with 8-10 scores, he’ll end up solidly in the top 10.
Tight Ends
No Surprise Here:
Jason Witten being in the top 3 certainly is no surprise, as he’s been one of the most consistently elite tight ends in the last five years. With Tony Romo back, Witten returned to being the favorite security blanket in Dallas; whenever the sticks need to be moved, you know the first look in the passing game has to be Witten. Witten is currently on pace for career bests in receptions (108) and yards (1464), but his four touchdown pace for the year may be what holds him back from grabbing the top TE honors.
Tony Gonzalez is also no stranger to the top 10 for tight ends, as he’s pretty much been in the top 10 for whole century so far. This year was the year most forecasted a fall off for Gonzo, but he’s looking like he’s turning the clock back and looks down right spry.
Jermichael Finley has also rewarded those who believed that he would be a top 5 talent, although owners probably are wishing for more consistency. While Finley has 18 catches for 234 yards and 3 TDs in the first four games, over 50% of his point production came in Week 3 against the Bears.
Shock and Awe:
How about that Jimmy Graham? While many writers, including this one (http://www.footballnation.com/content/low-risk-high-reward-uncovering-late-round-gems/3045/3/) touted Graham as possibly the coming of the next Antonio Gates-like talent, no one figured it would happen this soon. Graham is simply unstoppable as a matchup nightmare; he’s too fast for linebackers, too big for safeties, and best of all, he has the full trust of perennial Pro Bowl quarterback, Drew Brees. Currently, Graham is on pace for a ridiculous 96 catches, 1468 yards, and 12 TDs; the really scary thing is Graham has gotten better with each passing game, and the sky’s the limit for his talent.
If it weren’t for a bad game in Week 4, we might very well be talking about Rob Gronkowski as the biggest surprise of the season amongst tight ends. As it is, even with a one catch day against the Raiders, Gronk is on pace for 72 receptions, for 1184 yards and an incredible 20 TDs. Gronkowski probably won’t keep that same pace, especially with Aaron Hernandez set to come back in a week or two, but finishing with over 65 catches, 900-1000 yards, and 12 TDs is well within reach.
The other surprise that jumps out is that of Fred Davis, who currently bookends the top 10 opposite Graham, at the 10 spot. Davis has been inconsistent, but Rex Grossman does look for him down the field as a vertical threat, as evident by his 15.5 yard per catch average through four games. As long as Chris Cooley continues to be hobbled by his lingering knee issues, Davis should continue to get enough looks to stay in the top 10 or at the very least stay very close to it. Not bad considering he probably wasn’t drafted in a lot of leagues.
Bad Juju:
Dallas Clark is a big disappointment for a lot of fantasy owners, considering he was probably drafted at least as a low end TE1 in most drafts. Right now, Clark owners are probably forced to continue playing him, even though his numbers dictate he should be bench depth at most. Clark is currently on pace for a terrible 52 catches and 516 yards, which would be his lowest totals in the last five years.
Kellen Winslow might arguably be a bigger disappointment, considering he doesn’t have the excuse of having Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter throwing him the ball. Winslow has looked a step slow and has ceded a few snaps to rookie Luke Stocker, and one has to wonder if Winslow’s ailing body is finally starting to catch up with him. Nonetheless, his dubious health coupled with Josh Freeman’s current passing struggles do not spell a return to the top 10 any time soon.
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Quarterbacks
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2 | Tom Brady |
| 3 | Cam Newton |
| 4 | Drew Brees |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford |
| 6 | Michael Vick |
| 7 | Tony Romo |
| 8 | Matt Hasselbeck |
| 9 | Ryan Fitzpatrick |
| 10 | Eli Manning |
No Surprise Here:
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are fighting it out for top honors amongst fantasy signal-callers, which is exactly what most people who drafted them were hoping for when spending those early picks for them. Both are averaging over 32 points per game, and will keep just about any fantasy team in the running each and every week. Drew Brees is not that far behind in the four spot and averaging close to 30 points per game. Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are all on pace to break Dan Marino’s passing record of 5084 yards, and it’s looking increasingly liking that at least one of them will get there.
Shock and Awe:
The most obvious surprise here has to be Cam Newton, who is also on pace to break Marino’s passing record. No one saw this coming in the preseason, as Newton was lucky to be drafted in most leagues, and if he was, he was drafted as a low end back up. Newton has shown a penchant for big numbers, as he has a live arm and isn’t afraid to use it. He has single-handedly brought Steve Smith’s fantasy prospects back from the dead.
Not to be overshadowed, the other big surprise has to be Matt Hasselbeck’s renaissance with the Tennessee Titans. Hasselbeck is another one that wasn’t drafted in a lot of leagues, and was being looked at as mostly a place-holder for rookie Jake Locker. Instead, Hasselbeck is on pace for over 4000 yards and over 30 TDs, both of which would be career highs for the 36 year old quarterback.
Bad Juju:
The most obvious name from amongst those sitting outside the top 10 that most thought would be in the top 10 is Philip Rivers. Not that he’s far outside, sitting around the 11 spot, but that’s quite a dip for those who drafted him with the idea that he was almost a shoe-in to be a top 5 QB. Currently, Rivers is only on pace for 20 touchdown passes, which would be a career low as a starter. A big part of his off-mark production has to be the ailing of favored target Antonio Gates, as Rivers has been forced to check down to the running backs far more than he’s been used to. If Gates is able to return healthy during the second half the season, Rivers might make some noise yet.
Another surprise that leaves a bad taste in the mouth is the plight of Ben Roethlisberger, who has been a solid starting fantasy quarterback for a couple of years now. Big Ben is on pace for a healthy 4400 yards passing, but is only on pace for an anemic 12 touchdowns for the entire year. For comparison, Rodgers and Brady have 12+ touchdowns after just four games. In fact, Roethlisberger is being out-paced by such luminaries as Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, and Tarvaris Jackson; and with the Steelers’ offensive line woes, things don’t look like they’ll get better any time soon.
Running Backs
| 1 | Matt Forte |
| 2 | Darren McFadden |
| 3 | Lesean McCoy |
| 4 | Ray Rice |
| 5 | Ryan Mathews |
| 6 | Fred Jackson |
| 7 | Mike Tolbert |
| 8 | Darren Sproles |
| 9 | Adrian Peterson |
| 10 | Jahvid Best |
No Surprise Here:
It was actually tough to find no surprises in this list, but Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Lesean McCoy, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson being in the top 10 in a PPR league probably aren’t stretches. The order they’re in probably is (and we’ll cover that in a second), but these five were in the top 10 last year. Forte was helped by 205 rushing yards in Week 4, but has been very consistent due to the sheer amount of receptions he gets (26 so far). Run DMC has also been very consistent, and looks like he’s building on his breakout season last year. Lesean McCoy and Ray Rice were both considered the class of the pass-catching running backs, and that’s holding true.
Shock and Awe:
Where do we start with this group? First, Forte being out in front after four games is a certain surprise, but as was mentioned earlier, his 205 yards in Week 4 certainly helps. What about Ryan Mathews breaking out in a big way, making his way into the top 5? Mathews is on pace for over 2000 total yards and 12 TDs, which is far and away more than any owner expected to get from him. His running mate, Mike Tolbert, is also in the top 10, but has been fading the last couple of games; barring an injury to Mathews, Tolbert should be out of the top 10 by the halfway mark of the season.
Then there’s Fred Jackson, who does nothing but prove everyone wrong who discounts him. He’s a 30 year old running back, but doesn’t have that much mileage on him; he’s looked spry in pacing the Bills’ running attack. Jackson is currently on pace for almost the same amount of total yardage and TDs as Ryan Mathews, and Jackson probably cost a little less in fantasy drafts.
Lastly, we have the diminutive Darren Sproles, who has really made the departed Reggie Bush look bad by taking the same role Bush had for the Saints and turning it into a true weapon position. Sproles is averaging nearly 9 yards per carry, and is on pace for over 100 receptions, almost 1500 total yards, and 12 TDs. Sproles was drafted at best as end of the bench fodder or was a waiver wire pick up, and he’s returning huge dividends.
Bad Juju:
With so many surprises in the top 10, there was bound to be a bunch of disappointments outside of it. We can add Peyton Hillis, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Frank Gore to the long list of bitterness; we can also make a case for Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles, but injuries can be excused. If we’re having a conversation about pure fantasy letdown though, the conversation has to begin and end with Chris Johnson.
CJ2K will be lucky if he’s CJ1K after holding out all of training camp and the preseason, and he came back just before the season opener with the obligatory “big contract holdout hangover”. Johnson has yet to sniff the endzone, and even with his first 100 yard effort in Week 4, he’s still only averaging 75 total yards, which projects out to only 1200 total yards. Ugh. I expect Johnson to get better as the season goes along, but it may end up being too little too late for fantasy owners that are falling further and further into a hole while he finds his way back to productivity.
Wide Receivers
| 1 | Wes Welker |
| 2 | Calvin Johnson |
| 3 | Steve Smith |
| 4 | Mike Wallace |
| 5 | Greg Jennings |
| 6 | Vincent Jackson |
| 7 | Stevie Johnson |
| 8 | Andre Johnson |
| 9 | Jeremy Maclin |
| 10 | Eric Decker |
No Surprise Here:
Wide Receivers have fewer surprises than running backs and even quarterbacks, as Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson and even Stevie Johnson are either right where most people had them, or pretty close. Megatron isn’t surprising, but his domination is still impressive, as he’s caught two TDs in each game so far this year, which is on pace for a mind boggling 32 TDs on the season. Even if Johnson slows his pace considerably, at this point 20 TDs are not out of the question and he could challenge Randy Moss’ record that he set a few years ago with the Patriots. Mike Wallace is turning out to be the only good thing going for the Steelers right now, and if Roethlisberger is able to get things going again, Wallace may actually improve on his current 100 reception, 1800 yards, and 8 TD pace.
Unfortunately for Andre Johnson owners, Johnson’s hamstring injury will probably keep him out for three or more games, which means he’ll have a tough time staying in the top 10 the rest of this year. Stevie Johnson was either in the top 10 or close to it in most PPR scoring formats last year, and he should stay solidly in the top 10, as he’s on pace for almost 100 receptions, over 1200 yards, and 12 TDs.
Shock and Awe:
The Human Slot machine Wes Welker is the smallest player in this group, yet is the biggest producer and the biggest surprise of the season. Most owners drafted Welker as a WR2, so his ridiculous 40 catch, 616 yards, and 5 TDs in the first four games have most of his owners either undefeated or close to it. Welker probably won’t keep up his current herculean pace, and even if he dropped to half his current production for the rest of the season, he’d still end up with over 100 receptions, over 1500 yards, and over 12 TDs. Amazing.
The other surprise that sticks out here is Eric Decker, who took advantage of early injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal to move up into solid fantasy starter consideration. It’ll be interesting to see how Decker does the rest of the season now that Lloyd is getting healthy and Royal will be set to return in the next couple of weeks, but I get the feeling that Decker is here to stay. He probably won’t finish in the top 10, heck, he may not finish in the top 20, but the arrow is definitely pointed up for this young guy.
Bad Juju:
Larry Fitzgerald seems to be going through some growing pains with new quarterback Kevin Kolb, but as these two get on the same page, Fitz will start climbing the rankings. Roddy White has consistently been in the top 3 the last couple of seasons, so his start has to be very disappointing for his owners. White is still on pace for over 1200 yards and over 100 receptions, but he only has one touchdown so far as teams seem to be keying on him in the red zone, and we’ve learned recently that he’s been battling a deep thigh bruise to boot. White’s scoring production is bound to pick up as the season goes along, and if he can just get on a pace to finish with 8-10 scores, he’ll end up solidly in the top 10.
Tight Ends
| 1 | Jimmy Graham |
| 2 | Rob Gronkowski |
| 3 | Jason Witten |
| 4 | Tony Gonzalez |
| 5 | Jermichael Finley |
| 6 | Dustin Keller |
| 7 | Greg Olsen |
| 8 | Owen Daniels |
| 9 | Vernon Davis |
| 10 | Fred Davis |
No Surprise Here:
Jason Witten being in the top 3 certainly is no surprise, as he’s been one of the most consistently elite tight ends in the last five years. With Tony Romo back, Witten returned to being the favorite security blanket in Dallas; whenever the sticks need to be moved, you know the first look in the passing game has to be Witten. Witten is currently on pace for career bests in receptions (108) and yards (1464), but his four touchdown pace for the year may be what holds him back from grabbing the top TE honors.
Tony Gonzalez is also no stranger to the top 10 for tight ends, as he’s pretty much been in the top 10 for whole century so far. This year was the year most forecasted a fall off for Gonzo, but he’s looking like he’s turning the clock back and looks down right spry.
Jermichael Finley has also rewarded those who believed that he would be a top 5 talent, although owners probably are wishing for more consistency. While Finley has 18 catches for 234 yards and 3 TDs in the first four games, over 50% of his point production came in Week 3 against the Bears.
Shock and Awe:
How about that Jimmy Graham? While many writers, including this one (http://www.footballnation.com/content/low-risk-high-reward-uncovering-late-round-gems/3045/3/) touted Graham as possibly the coming of the next Antonio Gates-like talent, no one figured it would happen this soon. Graham is simply unstoppable as a matchup nightmare; he’s too fast for linebackers, too big for safeties, and best of all, he has the full trust of perennial Pro Bowl quarterback, Drew Brees. Currently, Graham is on pace for a ridiculous 96 catches, 1468 yards, and 12 TDs; the really scary thing is Graham has gotten better with each passing game, and the sky’s the limit for his talent.
If it weren’t for a bad game in Week 4, we might very well be talking about Rob Gronkowski as the biggest surprise of the season amongst tight ends. As it is, even with a one catch day against the Raiders, Gronk is on pace for 72 receptions, for 1184 yards and an incredible 20 TDs. Gronkowski probably won’t keep that same pace, especially with Aaron Hernandez set to come back in a week or two, but finishing with over 65 catches, 900-1000 yards, and 12 TDs is well within reach.
The other surprise that jumps out is that of Fred Davis, who currently bookends the top 10 opposite Graham, at the 10 spot. Davis has been inconsistent, but Rex Grossman does look for him down the field as a vertical threat, as evident by his 15.5 yard per catch average through four games. As long as Chris Cooley continues to be hobbled by his lingering knee issues, Davis should continue to get enough looks to stay in the top 10 or at the very least stay very close to it. Not bad considering he probably wasn’t drafted in a lot of leagues.
Bad Juju:
Dallas Clark is a big disappointment for a lot of fantasy owners, considering he was probably drafted at least as a low end TE1 in most drafts. Right now, Clark owners are probably forced to continue playing him, even though his numbers dictate he should be bench depth at most. Clark is currently on pace for a terrible 52 catches and 516 yards, which would be his lowest totals in the last five years.
Kellen Winslow might arguably be a bigger disappointment, considering he doesn’t have the excuse of having Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter throwing him the ball. Winslow has looked a step slow and has ceded a few snaps to rookie Luke Stocker, and one has to wonder if Winslow’s ailing body is finally starting to catch up with him. Nonetheless, his dubious health coupled with Josh Freeman’s current passing struggles do not spell a return to the top 10 any time soon.
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