Finally, a good week. Even though I missed my layup of the week, thanks to some terrible defense by the Falcons, most went as planned. Before I get into the picks, some random thoughts pertaining to Fantasy Football, and how to move forward, from Week 4. I'll also touch on some things that I noticed last week...

- I think Blaine Gabbert is going to be real good. Big, strong kid and throws a real solid ball. He doesn't have much to work with now, and still looks confused by most zone coverage, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the best QB out of this rookie class, by a lot. 

- I posted this to my Twitter last night, but worth repeating, the Bucs are overrated. I know, they're 3-1; you don't think they are? Consider this: Their +/- for the entire season, at 3-1, is only +7. Their three wins? Against opponents with 2 wins, total. It gets deeper... those two wins? By 6 points, total. Yes, their one loss came against the undefeated Lions, but... it was at home, they won the turnover battle, had half the penalty yardage the Lions did, held the Lions to 2 for 11 on 3rd down conversions, held them to 2 out of 4 in redzone scoring AND got a defensive touchdown. I'm sorry, that's a game you have to win if you're a contender, no matter the opponent. So yes, they're 3-1, but against teams that are 6-10 collectively, including the 4-0 Lions. 

- I'll admit it, the Bengals are underrated. It has very little to do with Andy Dalton, who is a fine quarterback but nothing more than a solid backup, or Cedric Benson, or really even AJ Green, who's been great. That defense is terrific. Actually, they're the top ranked defense in the NFL after Sunday. They are going to stay in most games solely because of defense, and will just need to find ways to make enough plays to win, like they did on Sunday.

- The Bills bandwagon seems to be emptying quickly, and I understand the frustration but Buffalo backers, but... If you would of told any Bills fan they would be 3-1, and 1st place in the AFC East at this point, they would of ALL taken it without hesitation. The only reason I can see to empty the bandwagon at this point? Upcoming schedule, take a look: vs Eagles, @ Giants, vs Redskins, vs Jets, @ Cowboys, @ Dolphins, @ Jets, vs Titans, @ Chargers. That gets you through Week 14. Best case scenario, I say they win three of those, although two may be more likely. I hope I'm wrong, I love when the Bills are good, but I still think they are a year or two away from being serious contenders. 

- I figured the Chiefs would find a way to win at home, and they did. However, this is still a really bad football team. The Vikings are just worse, I'll touch on that later. I'm saying the Chiefs will be lucky to win four games.

- I'll touch on it now, the Vikings will finish last in the North, but the Bears won't be too far off. I was real high on their defense, not so much on their offense. Now, I can't even say I'm completely sold on their defense. The Panthers put up major yards on them, and they were a phantom offensive pass interference call on Jeremy Shockey away from losing to them at home. They also had to rely on a couple of big plays from Matt Forte running the ball which, trust me, won't happen very often. So yes, I'll switch to say the Vikes finish last, but the Bears will be right around six wins this season. They do get to play some of the teams out west; Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs etc.. so that could just up to seven, but I don't think they're very good. They need more playmakers, a punt return from Devin Hester twice a year won't cut it. 

- I'm off the Falcons bandwagon too, which I've had a seat on for about three years now. I love Roddy White, being the main reason. They just don't look very good this year. Their defense struggles to get stops when they really need it, and the offense is not moving the ball on a consistent basis. Everyone talked about the loaded NFC South coming into the season, and many probably still are, but the truth of the matter is that it's overrated. The Saints are a good team, very beatable. The Falcons and Bucs are mediocre teams, and the Panthers are an inferior team. Give me the NFC East, and even the NFC North as better divisions. 

- The Packers are really good.

- What's the identity of this Patriot team? Just when we think they will go all Welker/Gronk and then mix it up with Woodhead... Gronk gets one catch and Woodhead isn't involved, instead leaning towards rookie running back Stevan Ridley. It will be interesting to see how they mix it up when Aaron Hernandez returns, moving them into more and more two tight end sets. I actually think Stevan Ridley is perfect for that, and that being the main reason BB if giving him so much time now. Remember, Kevin Faulk was a favorite of BB, and Stevan Ridley is more like a extra talented, athletic Kevin Faulk.

- Outside of the Chiefs and Jaguars, no offense scares me less than the Jets. Sanchez is a mediocre quarterback, and I think Rex knows it. But really, what choice does he have at this point? Shonn Greene nor LT are effective runners, and the line is falling apart. I said before the season they would take a step back, and I'm only more confident in that prediction now. 

- Bless the Colts hearts. Also, as a Colts fan, I'm torn. Root for wins out of pride? Or.. root to be competitive but ultimately lose, then have the choice of Andrew Luck or the loads of picks/talent that would come for him? I don't know..the latter seems better to me. They aren't making the playoffs anyway, let's set up the next few years (or decade if they decide to go the Luck route) instead.

Now, on to the picks, I'll give you my pick in bold plus a few quick thoughts underneath.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills losing streak will continue, as I think the Eagles will be playing with a sense of urgency, something they definitely have not done early in the season. Should be high scoring and fun to watch, but the Eagles will pull it out. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bengal defense. I'll be shocked if the Jaguars score more than seven points in this one. The Bengals should have enough to find the endzone a couple times, even if Benson is serving his suspension.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
The Steelers will also play with a sense of urgency, in front of a rowdy home crowd, against a somewhat overrated Titan team. I actually really like Chris Johnson in this game from a fantasy perspective, as well as Nate Washington. But I think the Steelers will win this one by at least a touchdown. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
A big game in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, and unfortunately I think the Colts pull this out. Curtis Painter seems to have a nice thing going with Pierre Garcon, and their defense will be good enough to keep the Chiefs out of the endzone any more than once. 

Oakland Raiders (+7.5) @ Houston Texans
Yeah, I know. But I'm still not buying into the Texans, especially without Andre Johnson. Who knows if Arian Foster will hold up? Ben Tate is also banged up, and I think they will have trouble slowing the Raiders running game. Give me the Raiders to cover.  

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are terrible, it would take a lot of points to get me to take them against anyone. Even at home.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Will be a high scoring game, and Cam will probably put up video game numbers again. Look for Colston to get more involved this week, with Jimmy Graham having another solid week. Still, the Saints should win this by double digits. 

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants (-9.5)
The Seahawks aren't playing in Seattle, so their immediately worse. The Giants will win this one easily, as their physical defense will be a tough go for the finesse of the Seahawk offense.

Tampa Bay Bucs (+1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
I know, I know, I just finished bashing the Bucs. Fact is, I still don't think the 49ers are any good, and the Bucs will have enough to get by yet another below average opponent. 

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos
This shouldn't be a problem, especially is V Jax plays. The Chargers are flat out a much better team, and I'm not sure the direction the Broncos are trying to go. It would be pretty frustrating to be a Denver fan right now.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
I just said the Jets aren't a very good team, and I'm going to stand by it. However... they always, always, always get up for the Patriots, and seem to have a bag of tricks for them every time. I'd like to take them, but at New England, the playoff loss still bitter in New England... give me the Patriots to win at least 10. 

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
I'm well aware Matt Ryan and the Falcons are fantastic at home, but you should be well aware the the Packers are a much better team. They will score at will, and keep the Falcon offense off the field enough to win by at least a touchdown. Last years playoff game was also in Atlanta, and I think we all remember how that went. The Packers are better now.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
The Lions need to stop falling behind early. If there is one team you don't want to fall behind to, it's the Bears. If they fall behind 17+ points at any point in this game, like they have been, they will lose. The Bears defense is designed to NOT give up big plays, so getting behind is a death wish, even though Jay Cutler is the quarterback of the Bears. The good news? They're playing at home, in front of a crazy crowd, and if they get an early lead, put it to bed. They'll force Jay Cutler to throw, which will let Suh, Avril and newly healthy Nick Fairley tee off against this terrible offensive line. This game will be won through the first quarter to quarter and a half. 

Good luck to everyone, enjoy the weekend.

2011: 30-34

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