Why Us What You Get Subscribe

  Fantasy Football University  
   
  Fantasy Football's 10 Commandments  
   

Target Analysis Week 5: Who's Hot, Who's Not

Contributed by: Jared Dang
Last Updated: Oct 07, 2011 12:54 PM

Its frustrating owning underperforming players. You shake your head, clench your teeth and hope that they pick it up and put their disappointing last week behind them. Watching your waiver wire pickups outperform your studs is incredibly frustrating and youre thinking about abandoning ship. Should you? It depends on the player. Lets compare Jere

It's frustrating owning underperforming players. You shake your head, clench your teeth and hope that they pick it up and put their disappointing last week behind them. Watching your waiver wire pickups outperform your "studs" is incredibly frustrating and you're thinking about abandoning ship. Should you? It depends on the player. Let's compare Jeremy Maclin and Santonio Holmes. Both are talented receivers who have severely under performed their average draft positions. So what makes Jeremy Maclin more likely to bounce back than Santonio Holmes?  And for that matter, what makes Pierre Garcon an arguably better play than Reggie Wayne? The answer is Targets.

It's that simple. Really? Yep. Targets indicate how much usage a player is receiving. Players that are see an increase in carries/targets are to produce for their teams down the line. Players whose targets are already high but haven't paid off yet for their fantasy teams, likely will in the future. Below are players whose targets are expected to increase, or have already increased.

On the Rise/Job Stealers

Owen Daniels, TE, Houston
Week 4 stats: 5 rec, 69 yards, 7 Targets, 1 TD
Andre Johnson's injury leaves an open spot in the starting lineup for Houston and perennial disappointment Jacoby Jones is likely to be promoted to starter. Again. Seriously, when has Jones ever not disappointed? Fact: Daniels was targeted on 1/3 of Matt Schaub's 21 throws on Sunday. Fact #2: 21 throws isn't very much. James Casey could see an increase in targets as well. 

Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins
Week 4 stats: 19 carries, 135 yards, 1 TD
Shanahan's man crush on Torain has blossomed into a hideous situation for Tim Hightower owners. Torain and Shanahan go way back, so Torain is the odds-on favorite to receive the lion's share of the carries on Sunday but then again, it's Shanahan. Who really knows?'

Stevan Ridley, RB, New England
Week 3 stats: 6 carries, 42 yards
Week 4 stats: 10 carries, 97 yards, 1 TD
Apparently ever beat writer in New England believes Ridley is a better back than BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Ridley's carries have increased every week, which would normally mean he could be expected to see more work in the future, but that's just not how Belicheck operates. He is every bit as bad as Mike Shanahan when it comes to letting his opponents know which running back he is going to use. At least Shanahan hinted that Torain would see an increase in work. You never really know when Danny Woodhead is going to come out of nowhere and lead the team in carries. Speaking of which, isn't Woodhead playing his former team on Sunday?

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
Week 3 stats: 3 rec, 110 yards, 5 Targets, 2 TDs
Week 4 stats: 6 rec, 98 yards, 9 Targets
For as good as Mario Manningham is, he is equally as frustrating. The Giants and Eli Manning are fed up with all the dropped balls, and the wrong routes run.  Cruz out-targeted Manningham by four targets on sunday and according to Rotoworld, "Manningham was demoted out of two-wide sets during Sunday's win over the Cardinals." Odds are Manningham hasn't lost his starting job just yet, but Cruz will definitely eat into his targets.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts
Week 3 stats: 6 rec, 82 yards, 10 Targets
Week 4 stats: 2 rec, 146 yards, 8 Targets, 2 TDs
Garcon's game against TB is not a fluke. In Curtis Painter's first game against Pittsburgh, Garcon caught three of Painter's five completions. Ever since Painter came in relief of Kerry Collins, Garcon has been targeted more than any other Colt and that includes Reggie Wayne

Jared Cook, TE, Titans
Week 4 stats: 2 rec, 93 yards, 6 Targets, 1 TD
Nate Washington is not the answer because Washington is not a good wide receiver. Never has been. With increased defensive attention, Washington is definitely not the answer. So where will Matt Hasselbeck throw the ball? Based off his history in Seattle, the answer is to his tight ends. Hasselbeck threw 20 times against Cleveland and six of those targets went to Cook.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
Week 4 stats: 5 rec, 68 yards, 9 Targets
Could it be? Could Crabtree really be healthy now? Eh, maybe. But it is encouraging to see Crabtree lead all 49ers receivers in targets and receiving yards. Alex Smith sure is looking for him often; the next closest 49ers receiver in targets was Vernon Davis with six. 

Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars
Week 3 stats: 4 rec, 55 yards, 8 Targets, 1 TD
Week 4 stats: 5 rec, 73 yards, 11 Targets
The best thing you can say about Blaine Gabbert is that he is not Luke McCown. That being said Thomas owners have to be pleased with the switch as his production has increased a decent amount. Thomas is easily the #1 targeted receiver in Jacksonville.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
Week 3 stats: 2 rec, 23 yards, 4 Targets
Week 4 stats: 5 rec, 84 yards, 6 Targets
Sidney Rice changes this offense dramatically. Everybody knows it. Especially opposing defenses who will be double and triple-teaming Rice because they know he is the only guy worth defending. This opens up things a little for Baldwin, who is the second most targeted Seahawk since Rice came back. Baldwin has deeper league value going forward.

Donald Jones, WR, Bills
Week 3 stats: 5 rec, 101 yards, 10 Targets 
Week 4 stats: 3 rec, 21 yards, 8 Targets
In the past two games Jones has out-targeted his counterpart David Nelson 18-11 and against Cincinnati, Nelson only recorded three targets. Could Jones have supplanted Nelson as the #2 WR in Buffalo? An even better question might be, will Ryan Fitzpatrick become consistent enough for it to matter?

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Week 3 stats: 6 rec, 115 yards, 7 Targets
Week 4 stats: 11 rec, 127 yards, 17 Targets
Jones was expected to take enough pressure off of Roddy White to take away the double-teams but could anybody have imagined Jones would be having 17-target days this early into the season? His increased role in the offense has come at the expense of Roddy White, who is playing a little out of sync and is dropping passes.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns
Week 4 stats: 7 carries, 22 yards, 5 rec, 49 yards
One week after coach Pat Shurmer said Hardesty could "handle more load" he says that Peyton Hillis will get more involved in the offense. Looks like a timeshare. 

Underperforming

Jeremy Maclin, WR Eagles
Week 2 stats: 13 rec, 171 yards, 15 Targets
Week 3 stats: 5 rec, 69 yards 7 Targets
Week 4 stats: 7 rec, 74 yards, 11 Targets
He hasn't killed you in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues Maclin hasn't performed up to his high ADP. Don't jump ship. Maclin has lead the Eagles receivers in targets the last three weeks. There is not a better bye-low candidate.

Ed Dickson, TE, Ravens
Week 3 stats: 5 rec, 51 yards, 9 Targets
Week 4 stats: : 4 rec, 45 yards, 12 Targets
Dickson has 32 targets on the year but only 16 catches. It's only a matter of time before picks it up. When he does, Dickson should be starting in every league. 

Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens 
Week 3 stats: 7 rec, 74 yards, 14 Targets
Week 4 stats: 1 rec, 28 yards, 2 Targets
Boldin owners shouldn't worry about Boldin's performance against the Jets. It's called Revis Island for a reason. Boldin only has one double digit fantasy day on the season but has led the Ravens in targets every single week, except for week four. Wait on him.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
Week 1 stats: 2 rec, 14 yards, 9 Targets
Week 2 stats: 4 rec, 67 yards, 6 Targets
Week 3 stats: 4 rec, 75 yards, 8 Targets
Week 4 stats: 5 rec, 67 yards, 10 Targets
Brown has looked impressive, but his quarterback Ben Roethlisberger just hasn't been able to get the ball to him due to offensive line blocking woes. The sheer amount of targets Brown is getting indicates that there is hope for the future.

Mike Williams (TB), WR, Buccaneers
Week 1 stats: 4 rec, 50 yards,10 Targets, 1 TD
Week 2 stats: 1 rec, -4 yards, 4 Targets
Week 3 stats: 5 rec, 43 yards, 8 Targets
Week 4 stats: 5 rec, 66 yards, 8 Targets
It's not Williams' fault, really. No other wide receiver has been able to step up and take pressure off of him, and Josh Freeman hasn't played up to the level that he did last year. Williams scored 11 touchdowns last year. He is on pace for only four this year. The targets are nice, but Williams needs his TDs.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
Week 1 stats: 6 rec, 70 yards, 10 Targets
Week 2 stats: 3 rec, 42 yards, 4 Targets, 1 TD
Week 3 stats: 1 rec, 19 yards, 2 Targets
Week 4 stats: 3 rec, 33 yards, 12 Targets
Holmes has got two things going against him. There are a lot of receiving options in NY and his quarterback Mark Sanchez is not the most accurate passer. The Jets are looking to establish the run more starting week 5 against the Patriots. Realistically Holmes is inconsistent at best, and a bust at the worst.
 



Follow @FFChamps on Twitter

The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.