Math is boring!  It can, however, be useful in helping us predict things (like when a meteor will strike the earth or when two trains, one from New York City and the other from LA, will cross paths somewhere in the middle of America).  What if we could use math to determine how running backs will perform in any given week?  Well, we can!  With the help of a team of expert mathematicians (not really), I've come up with an equation that predicts how running backs will do!

I know what you're thinking: "This is going to be like QB ratings.  QB ratings are poor indicators of player performance.  They stink!"  The Running Back Rating, however, is NOT like the quarterback rating.  QB ratings are determined after football games-- they tell us how a player performed.  The Running Back Rating is used to predict how players will do, so it's actually useful.

The equation to determine RB success is:

RUNNING BACK RATING = 
(Average Rushing Yards Per Game + Average Receiving Yards Per Game + (Average TDs Per Game x 50) + (100 yd. games / games played x 50) + (Carries Previous Week x 2.5) + (Opponent's Average Rushing TDs Allowed Per Game x 20) + Opponent's Average Rush Yards Allowed Per Game) / 4

"Woah, that looks like a lot of nonsense!  Break it down for me, Jeffrey!"

Okay, reader, I will!  First, let's take a look at the different stats that are being entered into the equation:

Average Rushing Yards Per Game: Obviously very telling.

Average Receiving Yards Per Game: Many running backs are a crucial part of their teams' passing attack.

Average TDs per game: Includes both rushing and receiving scores.

100 yd. games: The average rushing yards per game statistic can be misleading if a running back has one ridiculous week and a bunch of mediocre ones.  That's why we've to take into account how many times a RB has had 100+ yards from scrimmage.

Carries Previous Week: How you been doing lately, Mr. Running Back?

Opponent's Average Rushing TDs Allowed: Touchdowns are where the points are in fantasy football.  Does the defense your RB is going up against keep opposing rushers out of the end zone?

Opponent's Average Rushing Yards Allowed: This is the best measure of a run defense.

When coming up with the formula, it was necessary to assign different weights to some statistics based on their relative importance.  For example, since TDs are the largest contribution a player can make to a game (and since the average TDs/game for a player is such a small number), a player's average TDs per game is multiplied by 50.

Another thing about this rating system is that (unlike passer ratings) no player can get above 100.  Top running backs for the week will typically get scores in the 90s.  If a running back does get above 100 when calculating his rating (it happened once this week), he simply gets a rating of 100

Let's look at an example.

LeSean McCoy

Average Rushing Yards Per Game: 90.75
Average Receiving Yards Per Game: 20.75
Average TDs Per Game: 1.5
100 yd. games (rushing and receiving yards combined): 3
Carries Previous Week: 9
Buffalo Bills Average Rushing TDs Allowed Per Game: 1
Buffalo Bills Average Rushing Yards Allowed: 129.5

The equation:
(Average Rushing Yards Per Game + Average Receiving Yards Per Game + (Average TDs Per Game x 50) + (100 yd. games / games played x 50) + (Carries Previous Week x 2.5) + (Opponent's Average Rushing TDs Allowed Per Game x 20) + Opponent's Average Rush Yards Allowed Per Game) / 4

(90.75 + 20.75 + (0.75 x 50) + (3 / 4 x 50) + (9 x 2.5) + (1 x 20) + 129.5) / 4
(90.75 + 20.75 + 37.5 + 37.5 + 22.5 + 20 + 129.5) / 4
358.5 / 4 = 89.6

So, for this week, LeSean McCoy has a RB rating of 89.6.

Get it?  Good.  (If you don't get it, that's okay; you can just trust me when I say it's the perfect rating formula.)

And now, I present to you (drum roll, please)...

RUNNING BACK RATINGS FOR WEEK 5!

1. Fred Jackson: 100

2T. Arian Foster: 97.3

2T. Matt Forte: 97.3

4. Beanie Wells: 96.6

5. Darren McFadden: 96

6. Ryan Mathews: 95.2

7. LeSean McCoy: 89.6

8. Adrian Peterson: 84.8

9. Jahvid Best: 77.6

10. Ahmad Bradshaw: 77.3

11. Darren Sproles: 77.1

12. Michael Turner: 75.5

13. Cedric Benson: 73.4

14. BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 72.7

15. Maurice Jones-Drew: 70.3

16T. Chris Johnson: 69.9

16T. Joseph Addai: 69.9

18. Willis McGahee: 69

19T. LeGarrette Blount: 66.7

19T. Frank Gore: 66.7

21. James Starks: 64.7

22. Marshawn Lynch: 55.4

23. Shonn Greene: 55.1

24. Mike Tolbert: 54

25. Jonathan Stewart: 53.8

*Note: In all likelihood, Isaac Redman will be starting for the Steelers in place of Rashard Mendenhall.  Since he doesn't have a true body of work to review statistically so far this year though, Redman is not on this list.

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