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Thoughts From The Champs: Jon's Journal Part 2

Contributed by: Jon Millman
Last Updated: Oct 08, 2011 9:27 AM

Heres some Stat Projectors that stood out to me heading into Week 4. I constantly look at this as I believe all players eventually revert to the mean except for a few outliers. Records are not broken so easily. I look at these to help the ROTW rankings and decide who wi

Here's some Stat Projector's that stood out to me heading into Week 4. I constantly look at this as I believe all players eventually revert to the mean except for a few outliers. Records are not broken so easily.  I look at these to help the ROTW rankings and decide who will likely slow down and who will likely pick up the production. Some food for thought...
   
                             
  Stat Projector thru Week 4                        
                             
Quarterbacks PASSING RUSHING    
  Player Name Team GP GL Comp Att Yards TD INT Att Yards TD FFP  
1 Aaron Rodgers GBP 4 12 412 564 5292 48 8 76 212 8 464 Will slow down some
2 Tom Brady NEP 4 12 436 652 6212 52 20 20 40 0 440 Will slow down some
3 Cam Newton CAR 4 12 388 652 5544 20 20 132 532 16 428 Will slow down some
4 Drew Brees NOS 4 12 480 696 5640 40 16 36 56 0 372 Will slow down some
5 Matthew Stafford DET 4 12 400 644 4868 44 12 16 -4 0 360 Will slow down some
6 Michael Vick PHI 4 12 316 516 4084 24 12 124 916 0 340  
7 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4 12 368 580 4160 36 12 44 100 0 312  
8 Eli Manning NYG 4 12 320 500 4264 32 8 44 -64 4 308  
9 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 4 12 352 528 4608 32 12 16 48 0 304 Will slow down some
10 Tony Romo DAL 4 12 396 608 5092 28 20 20 32 0 300  
11 Josh Freeman TBB 4 12 388 580 3868 12 16 92 416 8 276 Will pick up
12 Matt Ryan ATL 4 12 408 656 4540 24 16 36 176 0 276  
13 Mark Sanchez NYJ 4 12 324 584 4020 24 20 36 148 4 276  
14 Philip Rivers SDC 4 12 428 628 5144 20 24 52 100 0 272 Will pick up
15 Joe Flacco BAL 4 12 276 560 3892 28 12 48 104 0 268  
16 Kyle Orton DEN 4 12 340 568 3780 32 24 28 116 0 268  
17 Jason Campbell OAK 4 12 316 484 3712 16 12 64 176 8 264  
18 Colt McCoy CLE 4 12 400 688 3936 24 12 48 140 0 256  
19 Chad Henne MIA 4 12 256 448 3472 16 16 56 404 4 252  
20 Matt Schaub HOU 4 12 296 452 3844 28 12 32 12 0 252  
21 Tarvaris Jackson SEA 4 12 336 540 3384 20 16 52 244 4 248  
22 Kevin Kolb ARI 4 12 320 520 4196 20 16 36 64 0 240  
23 Rex Grossman WAS 4 12 332 572 3956 24 20 40 12 0 236  
24 Jay Cutler CHI 4 12 284 524 3840 20 16 20 100 0 228  
25 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 4 12 340 552 4592 12 20 52 172 0 228 Will pick up
26 Alex Smith SFO 4 12 288 428 3180 16 4 44 168 4 228  
27 Andy Dalton CIN 4 12 288 496 3472 16 16 24 80 4 220  
28 Sam Bradford STL 4 12 300 604 3396 12 4 28 88 0 188 Will pick up
29 Donovan McNabb MIN 4 12 260 444 2720 16 8 40 220 0 188  
30 Matt Cassel KCC 4 12 288 444 2752 16 20 20 84 0 164  
32 Blaine Gabbert JAX 3 12 132 276 1548 8 8 28 68 0 92  
33 Curtis Painter IND 2 12 72 164 1364 8 0 0 0 0 88  
                             
                             
Running Backs RUSHING RECEIVING        
  Player Name Team GP GL Att Yards TD Rec Yards TD FFP      
1 Darren McFadden OAK 4 12 300 1872 12 60 528 4 336     Will slow down some
2 LeSean McCoy PHI 4 12 264 1452 16 60 332 8 320     Will slow down some
3 Ray Rice BAL 4 12 260 1180 8 64 968 8 312     Will slow down some
4 Fred Jackson BUF 4 12 256 1476 16 52 588 0 304     Will slow down
5 Matt Forte CHI 4 12 240 1296 4 104 1240 4 300      
6 Ryan Mathews SDC 4 12 244 1152 12 76 1016 0 288     Will slow down
7 Chris Wells ARI 3 12 236 1284 20 16 48 0 252     Will slow down
8 Adrian Peterson MIN 4 12 324 1504 12 36 196 0 244      
9 Michael Turner ATL 4 12 272 1216 12 24 360 0 228     look at the receiving stats
10 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 4 12 220 912 8 60 476 4 212      
11 Mike Tolbert SDC 4 12 124 324 8 100 824 8 212      
12 Jahvid Best DET 4 12 240 760 4 68 820 4 208      
13 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 4 12 308 1564 4 28 268 0 208     Will score more
14 LeGarrette Blount TBB 4 12 268 1176 12 8 108 0 200      
15 Darren Sproles NOS 4 12 60 536 4 104 896 4 188      
16 Frank Gore SFO 4 12 296 1100 8 32 192 0 180      
17 Cedric Benson CIN 4 12 308 1392 4 16 76 0 172     Will slow down some
18 Tim Hightower WAS 4 12 268 932 4 40 312 4 172      
19 Willis McGahee DEN 4 12 276 1036 4 44 196 4 172      
21 Peyton Hillis CLE 3 12 216 788 8 60 304 0 160     Will pick up
22 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NEP 4 12 196 780 12 8 56 0 156      
23 Felix Jones DAL 4 12 224 964 4 48 344 0 156      
26 Joseph Addai IND 4 12 200 920 4 32 236 0 140      
27 James Starks GBP 4 12 180 840 4 44 308 0 140      
29 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 4 12 232 692 8 20 84 0 124     Will pick up
30 Jonathan Stewart CAR 4 12 124 568 0 68 692 0 124     Will pick up
31 Chris Johnson TEN 4 12 276 796 0 60 408 0 120     Will pick up a lot
32 Daniel Thomas MIA 2 12 164 808 0 16 148 4 120      
34 Shonn Greene NYJ 4 12 204 628 4 40 240 0 112     Will pick up
35 Arian Foster HOU 2 12 160 752 4 20 72 0 108     Will pick up a lot
40 Mark Ingram NOS 4 12 212 736 4 16 0 0 96     Will pick up
41 Stevan Ridley NEP 3 12 76 600 4 8 44 0 88     Will pick up
42 Kendall Hunter SFO 4 12 80 272 4 16 296 0 80     Will pick up
45 Roy Helu WAS 4 12 96 504 0 20 220 0 76     Will pick up
46 Isaac Redman PIT 4 12 88 428 4 8 72 0 76     Will pick up
47 DeAngelo Williams CAR 4 12 148 572 0 28 184 0 76     Will pick up
48 Ryan Grant GBP 3 12 128 628 0 16 76 0 72     Will pick up
49 Montario Hardesty CLE 4 12 116 432 0 32 272 0 72     Will pick up
55 Dexter McCluster KCC 3 12 96 488 0 48 108 0 60     Will pick up
                             
                             
                             
Wide Receivers RECEIVING RUSHING        
  Player Name Team GP GL Rec Yards TD Att Yards TD FFP      
1 Wes Welker NEP 4 12 160 2464 20 4 76 0 368     Will slow down
2 Calvin Johnson DET 4 12 96 1284 32 4 8 0 320     Will slow down the TD scoring some
3 Steve Smith CAR 4 12 96 2120 8 0 0 0 260     Will slow down
4 Mike Wallace PIT 4 12 100 1816 8 0 0 0 228     Will slow down
5 Vincent Jackson SDC 4 12 80 1496 12 4 4 0 220     Will slow down
6 Greg Jennings GBP 4 12 100 1464 12 0 0 0 220      
7 Eric Decker DEN 4 12 80 1080 16 4 4 0 204     Will slow down
8 Steve Johnson BUF 4 12 96 1256 12 0 0 0 196      
9 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 4 12 92 1444 8 0 0 0 192      
10 Miles Austin DAL 2 12 56 932 16 4 -8 0 188     Will pick up
12 Andre Johnson HOU 4 12 100 1408 8 4 32 0 188      
13 Jordy Nelson GBP 4 12 60 1168 12 0 0 0 188     Will slow down
14 Hakeem Nicks NYG 4 12 96 1388 8 0 0 0 188      
15 Jeremy Maclin PHI 4 12 104 1336 8 4 4 0 180      
16 A.J. Green CIN 4 12 76 1248 8 4 24 0 172      
17 Pierre Garcon IND 4 12 56 1180 8 0 0 0 168      
18 Dwayne Bowe KCC 4 12 64 1168 8 4 48 0 164      
19 Devery Henderson NOS 4 12 48 1060 8 0 0 0 156     Will slow down
20 DeSean Jackson PHI 4 12 64 1296 4 8 12 0 152      
21 Nate Washington TEN 4 12 92 1280 4 0 0 0 152      
22 Brandon Marshall MIA 4 12 88 1252 4 0 0 0 148      
23 Robert Meachem NOS 4 12 72 760 12 4 28 0 148      
24 Santana Moss WAS 4 12 84 984 8 0 0 0 148      
25 Roddy White ATL 4 12 104 1208 4 0 0 0 144     Will score more
26 Dez Bryant DAL 3 12 40 684 12 4 20 0 140     Will pick up
27 Victor Cruz NYG 4 12 44 900 8 0 0 0 140      
28 Julio Jones ATL 4 12 96 1368 0 4 -36 0 136     Will score more
29 Torrey Smith BAL 3 12 24 612 12 4 40 0 132     Will pick up
30 Denarius Moore OAK 4 12 48 796 8 8 192 4 128      
31 Reggie Wayne IND 4 12 72 1020 4 0 0 0 128     Will pick up
32 David Nelson BUF 4 12 88 1004 4 0 0 0 124      
33 Jabar Gaffney WAS 4 12 68 952 4 0 0 0 120      
34 Deion Branch NEP 4 12 64 904 4 0 0 0 116      
35 Anquan Boldin BAL 4 12 60 888 4 0 0 0 112      
36 Plaxico Burress NYJ 4 12 40 640 8 0 0 0 112     Will pick up
37 Early Doucet ARI 4 12 52 868 4 0 0 0 112      
38 Preston Parker TBB 4 12 64 892 4 0 0 0 112      
39 Mike Thomas JAX 4 12 80 848 4 0 0 0 108     Will pick up
40 Danario Alexander STL 3 12 32 784 4 0 0 0 104      
41 Brian Hartline MIA 4 12 52 804 4 0 0 0 104      
42 Michael Jenkins MIN 4 12 64 576 8 0 0 0 104      
43 Brandon Lloyd DEN 3 12 72 1052 0 0 0 0 104      
44 Doug Baldwin SEA 4 12 48 776 4 4 -8 0 100      
45 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE 4 12 56 776 4 0 0 0 100      
46 Sidney Rice SEA 2 12 44 752 4 0 0 0 100     Will pick up
47 Johnny Knox CHI 4 12 48 948 0 0 0 0 96      
48 Brandon Gibson STL 4 12 52 684 4 0 0 0 92      
49 Antonio Brown PIT 4 12 60 892 0 8 36 0 88      
50 Santonio Holmes NYJ 4 12 52 656 4 0 0 0 88     Will pick up a lot
51 Brandon LaFell CAR 3 12 48 644 4 0 0 0 88      
52 Eddie Royal DEN 3 12 48 656 4 0 0 0 88      
53 Mike Williams TBB 4 12 60 620 4 4 12 0 88     Will pick up a lot
54 Davone Bess MIA 4 12 60 828 0 0 0 0 84      
55 Randall Cobb GBP 4 12 28 592 4 0 0 0 84      
56 Joshua Cribbs CLE 4 12 48 612 4 4 -12 0 84      
57 Donald Jones BUF 4 12 56 596 4 4 8 0 84      
58 Josh Morgan SFO 4 12 40 580 4 0 0 0 84      
59 Jerome Simpson CIN 4 12 48 848 0 0 0 0 84      
60 Lance Moore NOS 3 12 60 576 4 0 0 0 80      
61 Steve Breaston KCC 4 12 40 716 0 0 0 0 72      
62 Nate Burleson DET 4 12 64 724 0 4 80 0 72     Will pick up 
63 Titus Young DET 4 12 48 724 0 0 0 0 72     Will pick up 
64 Jason Avant PHI 4 12 56 684 0 0 0 0 68      
65 Arrelious Benn TBB 4 12 36 456 4 4 12 0 68      
66 Percy Harvin MIN 4 12 68 688 0 48 564 0 68     Will pick up , look at the rushing
67 Laurent Robinson DAL 2 12 40 660 0 0 0 0 68      
68 Andre Caldwell CIN 4 12 44 388 4 0 0 0 64      
69 Malcom Floyd SDC 4 12 36 632 0 0 0 0 64      
70 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 3 12 36 656 0 0 0 0 64      
71 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 4 12 28 380 4 0 0 0 64      
72 James Jones GBP 4 12 36 352 4 0 0 0 60      
73 Devin Hester CHI 4 12 28 556 0 0 0 0 56      
74 Ben Obomanu SEA 4 12 44 336 4 4 52 0 56      
75 Mike Sims-Walker STL 4 12 44 556 0 0 0 0 56      
76 Hines Ward PIT 4 12 52 544 0 0 0 0 56      
77 Mike Williams SEA 4 12 32 316 4 0 0 0 56      
78 Donald Driver GBP 4 12 32 284 4 0 0 0 52      
79 Greg Little CLE 4 12 56 524 0 0 0 0 52      
80 Mario Manningham NYG 3 12 32 460 0 0 0 0 48     Will pick up 
                             
                             
                             
                             
Tight Ends RECEIVING RUSHING        
  Player Name Team GP GL Rec Yards TD Att Yards TD FFP      
1 Rob Gronkowski NEP 4 12 72 1184 20 0 0 0 240     Will slow down
2 Jimmy Graham NOS 4 12 96 1468 12 0 0 0 220     Will slow down
3 Tony Gonzalez ATL 4 12 84 916 16 0 0 0 188     Will slow down
4 Jason Witten DAL 4 12 108 1464 4 0 0 0 172     Will slow down
5 Jermichael Finley GBP 4 12 72 936 12 0 0 0 164      
6 Dustin Keller NYJ 4 12 72 1044 8 0 0 0 152      
7 Owen Daniels HOU 4 12 56 728 12 0 0 0 144      
8 Scott Chandler BUF 4 12 44 388 16 0 0 0 136     Will slow down
9 Greg Olsen CAR 4 12 68 876 8 0 0 0 136      
10 Fred Davis WAS 4 12 64 992 4 0 0 0 124     Will slow down
11 Jermaine Gresham CIN 4 12 64 748 8 0 0 0 124      
12 Aaron Hernandez NEP 2 12 56 660 8 0 0 0 116     Will pick up
13 Ben Watson CLE 4 12 64 692 8 0 0 0 116      
14 Vernon Davis SFO 4 12 76 896 4 4 -8 0 112      
15 Ed Dickson BAL 4 12 64 720 4 0 0 0 96      
16 Brandon Pettigrew DET 4 12 88 960 0 0 0 0 96     Will score TDs
17 Jeff King ARI 4 12 20 400 8 0 0 0 88      
18 Jared Cook TEN 4 12 28 596 4 0 0 0 84      
19 Evan Moore CLE 4 12 28 340 8 0 0 0 84      
20 Dallas Clark IND 4 12 52 516 4 0 0 0 76      
21 Jake Ballard NYG 4 12 28 480 4 0 0 0 72      
22 Jeremy Shockey CAR 4 12 44 712 0 0 0 0 72      
23 Daniel Fells DEN 4 12 32 448 4 0 0 0 68      
24 Kellen Winslow TBB 4 12 68 652 0 0 0 0 64      
25 Todd Heap ARI 4 12 52 600 0 0 0 0 60      
26 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN 4 12 40 376 4 0 0 0 60      
27 Heath Miller PIT 4 12 48 576 0 0 0 0 56      
28 Clay Harbor PHI 2 12 16 288 4 0 0 0 52      
29 Leonard Pope KCC 4 12 36 276 4 0 0 0 52      
30 Craig Stevens TEN 4 12 16 292 4 0 0 0 52      
31 Delanie Walker SFO 4 12 28 264 4 0 0 0 52      
32 Kellen Davis CHI 4 12 12 220 4 0 0 0 48      
33 Anthony Fasano MIA 4 12 28 468 0 0 0 0 48      
34 Kevin Boss OAK 2 12 24 456 0 0 0 0 44      
35 Tony Scheffler DET 4 12 12 204 4 4 20 0 44      
                             
                             
                             


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