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Week 6 Thoughts From The Champs: Jon's Journal
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Contributed by:
Jon Millman
Last Updated: Oct 12, 2011 3:07 PM |
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Thoughts from the Champs – Jon’s Journal – Week 6
Hard-hitting fantasy insight from our expert Jon Millman. Find out who he thinks is moving up, moving down after Week 5 and who can lead your squad to a Championship run.
RANDOM NOTES
-Chris Johnson still isn’t running like he used to but is getting a little better each week. I suspect the bye week will help him get back on the same page with his line. He looks a little bigger this year than last year, wonder if he’s slowed down at all, seems so.
-Curtis Painter is starting to not look half bad on film. If you think about it… most of his career he has seen only limited starter’s snaps in practices and even fewer in games. There was 1 other preseason Peyton was hurt, so he got a lot of practice then, but this was the first time in his career he received all of the starter snaps all preseason. That had to go a long way, and then right at the start of the season they brought in Collins. He’s actually hitting guys with nice passes when given time. He’s actually worth a roster spot at this point as a match-up based No. 2/3 QB.
-Cam Newton – Another reel of great playing by Cam, seems that the game just comes easy to him. The part I liked this week though, came after a 50-yard TD to Steve Smith. Right after crossing the goal line, Smith got leveled with a late hit. To his credit, Smith stood up, dusted himself off and composed himself for a minute while continuing his celebration. His teammates came charging, led by Cam Newton and a scrum ensued. This man is a keeper. Carolina is lucky to have him to build around.
-Mark Ingram – Ran well this week and we were expecting him to. He ended up with a solid week, but I think he will start to have a bigger role in the coming weeks. Get him cheap if you can for depth, especially in non PPR.
-Greg Little – I think CLE will come out of their bye and look to get him the ball more. They also may look to get the ball to Hardesty a little more. They are in the middle of a contract negotiation with Hillis and the last thing they want is for him to have a few monster games.
-Tim Tebow – The fans finally get what they wanted and the guy I originally penciled in as the starter in DEN back in April is finally there. I saw what he did at the end of last year and I was sure that was enough to be the lead QB to start the season. However he got there, he’s there now and I expect Tebow to be a poor man’s version of Cam Newton. He will run in a TD at least every other game and probably throw 1-2 most games. He has solid WRs and I think can easily be a top-15 fantasy QB so grab him now.
-Owen Daniels – Sure looked like it was OD who reaped the target benefits from Andre Johnson going down and not Jacoby Jones. The other TE Dreessen got some extra helpings too. James Casey may have, but he got hurt. The good news is AJ will be back either Week 7 or 8 latest it sounds like, and Arian Foster looks like he really is back to 100% so they’ll figure out a way to get by. The loss of Mario Williams is more painful.
-Darren McFadden – Looks like defenses are focusing on DMac and trying to make OAK beat them elsewhere. It’s a pretty good idea since he’s far and away their best player. Fortunately Darrius Heyward-Bey is picking up the slack and making them pay. That will eventually re-open holes for DMac, but OAK’s going to need to prove they can beat teams through the air for McFadden to go off like he was early in the season. Other than DHB, don’t overlook Jacoby Ford. He was hurt to start the season, but they like him perhaps more than any other WR and will move him around and find ways to get him the ball. He is worth a roster spot now. The odd man out appears to be Denarius Moore who may need another injury to make an impact again.
-Mike Vick – He’s now finished 2 games in a row despite constant hits. While the team isn’t winning and the Dream Team has turned into a nightmare in Philly, Vick is playing at an elite level again. He is a top-3 QB the past 2 weeks in most formats, and as long as he plays is a must-start every week. He is actually playing quite well and making some great throws. He still makes 1 or 2 throws a game that get picked off, but there are 5 times that many that he somehow threads a laser through defenders to complete. Bottom line, you take the good with the bad and enjoy the ride. If your stomach or heart can’t take it, his value should be high enough to easily land a comparable QB talent with less volatility.
-Eli Manning – He took A LOT of flack for answering a reporter’s question the way any professional athlete would, “Do you think you’re in the same class as Tom Brady?” Yes. I consider myself one of the best in the game. What else should he say? “Well my brothers as good as Tom Brady is.”
He was tarred and feathered for that answer to start the season but you know what, he’s backing it up. Sure Eli makes some bone-headed throws and is obviously NOT the best QB in the NFL nor in Tom Brady’s tier (although he is 1-0 against him in the Big Dance), but through 5 games he is in the top 5 or 6 for Fantasy QBs and on pace for 4,750 pass yds, 35 TDs, 16 ints + 3 Rush TDs. Pro Bowl numbers most seasons. He also answers the bell every week currently holding the leading consecutive games played streak now that Peyton is out. He actually has been quite serviceable as a fantasy QB throwing at least 2 TDs in every game except Week 1. He’s also thrown 10 TDs in the past 3 games and thrown for 321 yds and 420 yds in the past two. Time to give the guy a break.
-Gronkowski Power? Right before the season started, the Patriots signed 2nd year Stud TE Rob Gronkowski’s older brother to the team as a backup. The first 3 games of the season Gronk went plaid to the tune of 17 recs, 281 yds, 5 TDs (a pace of 90 recs, 1500 yds, 27 TDs which I told you HAD to slow down). After Week 3 they released Dan Gronkowski presumably because they needed the roster spot. The next 2 games, Gronk has slumped with only 5 recs, 46 yds, 0 TDs. Here’s the good news…. Tuesday the Pats re-signed Dan Gronkowski! All should be fine now with Hernandez back as well.
-Adrian Peterson WAS a buy-low candidate before last week but after the 1st quarter and 3 TDs that was over. Hard to be disappointed with his day’s performance, but after doing that much in the 1st quarter he did very little the rest of the game. Similar to Torrey Smith and his 3-TD game in the 1st quarter a few weeks ago.
-Jake Ballard is the Giants’ version of the “White Calvin Johnson”. Well, at least they are similar size (Ballard is 6’6” 275 lbs). So what if Calvin has 4.3 speed, Ballard is probably somewhere in the 5s. Calvin has the leaping ability of a slam dunk champion, Ballard is more of the Rik Smits variety of athleticism. Coming back to Earth, what Ballard is that is similar to Calvin is a BIG target for his QB. Eli likes his TEs also, so while he will not be the next Jimmy Graham, he may turn out to be a top 15-20 or so TE and usable as a bye week fill-in. He brings back memories of Mark Bavaro a bit since he’s bigger than most guys out there hanging from him.
-CAR RBs – Just when it looked like it was clear… Jonathan Stewart was the better RB to have, especially in PPR. He was getting 2:1 touches. All made sense, 2 games DeAngelo Williams is more involved and more productive. I guess it’s a dicey thing and something to avoid and trade out of if you can.
-No one can celebrate a 1st down like Santonio Holmes. He makes every one like it’s his last. Hasn’t he watched football games before? People don’t celebrate every 10-yard play.
-Aaron Hernandez – Originally he was iffy to play. Then they came out firing and going to him over and over and deep. He looked a little slower than normal but still was getting open. He took some shots on it also and kept playing, so that was big. He was a little rusty, dropped a pass or 2 including a TD that wasn’t an easy catch but one he normally makes. The downside of that was it turned into an interception, amazingly the first red-zone int at home Tom Brady has EVER thrown.
(STAT PROJ – I’ll send this to you later in the week)
Here’s some of the FFCPI Calls from Week 5 that went good and bad
Good Calls
F Jackson @ 4
J Best @ 9
F Gore @ 10
B Wells @ 12
M Ingram @ 15
C Benson @ 30
D Bowe @ 7
P Garcon @ 19
Bad Calls
M Ryan @ 7
K Kolb @ 11
J Freeman @12
D McFadden @ 3
V Jackson @ 5
J Nelson @ 17
P Burress @ 19
D Moore @ 20
Follow Jon Millman on Twitter: @FFChamps_Jon
Follow @FFChamps on Twitter
Hard-hitting fantasy insight from our expert Jon Millman. Find out who he thinks is moving up, moving down after Week 5 and who can lead your squad to a Championship run.
RANDOM NOTES
-Chris Johnson still isn’t running like he used to but is getting a little better each week. I suspect the bye week will help him get back on the same page with his line. He looks a little bigger this year than last year, wonder if he’s slowed down at all, seems so.
-Curtis Painter is starting to not look half bad on film. If you think about it… most of his career he has seen only limited starter’s snaps in practices and even fewer in games. There was 1 other preseason Peyton was hurt, so he got a lot of practice then, but this was the first time in his career he received all of the starter snaps all preseason. That had to go a long way, and then right at the start of the season they brought in Collins. He’s actually hitting guys with nice passes when given time. He’s actually worth a roster spot at this point as a match-up based No. 2/3 QB.
-Cam Newton – Another reel of great playing by Cam, seems that the game just comes easy to him. The part I liked this week though, came after a 50-yard TD to Steve Smith. Right after crossing the goal line, Smith got leveled with a late hit. To his credit, Smith stood up, dusted himself off and composed himself for a minute while continuing his celebration. His teammates came charging, led by Cam Newton and a scrum ensued. This man is a keeper. Carolina is lucky to have him to build around.
-Mark Ingram – Ran well this week and we were expecting him to. He ended up with a solid week, but I think he will start to have a bigger role in the coming weeks. Get him cheap if you can for depth, especially in non PPR.
-Greg Little – I think CLE will come out of their bye and look to get him the ball more. They also may look to get the ball to Hardesty a little more. They are in the middle of a contract negotiation with Hillis and the last thing they want is for him to have a few monster games.
-Tim Tebow – The fans finally get what they wanted and the guy I originally penciled in as the starter in DEN back in April is finally there. I saw what he did at the end of last year and I was sure that was enough to be the lead QB to start the season. However he got there, he’s there now and I expect Tebow to be a poor man’s version of Cam Newton. He will run in a TD at least every other game and probably throw 1-2 most games. He has solid WRs and I think can easily be a top-15 fantasy QB so grab him now.
-Owen Daniels – Sure looked like it was OD who reaped the target benefits from Andre Johnson going down and not Jacoby Jones. The other TE Dreessen got some extra helpings too. James Casey may have, but he got hurt. The good news is AJ will be back either Week 7 or 8 latest it sounds like, and Arian Foster looks like he really is back to 100% so they’ll figure out a way to get by. The loss of Mario Williams is more painful.
-Darren McFadden – Looks like defenses are focusing on DMac and trying to make OAK beat them elsewhere. It’s a pretty good idea since he’s far and away their best player. Fortunately Darrius Heyward-Bey is picking up the slack and making them pay. That will eventually re-open holes for DMac, but OAK’s going to need to prove they can beat teams through the air for McFadden to go off like he was early in the season. Other than DHB, don’t overlook Jacoby Ford. He was hurt to start the season, but they like him perhaps more than any other WR and will move him around and find ways to get him the ball. He is worth a roster spot now. The odd man out appears to be Denarius Moore who may need another injury to make an impact again.
-Mike Vick – He’s now finished 2 games in a row despite constant hits. While the team isn’t winning and the Dream Team has turned into a nightmare in Philly, Vick is playing at an elite level again. He is a top-3 QB the past 2 weeks in most formats, and as long as he plays is a must-start every week. He is actually playing quite well and making some great throws. He still makes 1 or 2 throws a game that get picked off, but there are 5 times that many that he somehow threads a laser through defenders to complete. Bottom line, you take the good with the bad and enjoy the ride. If your stomach or heart can’t take it, his value should be high enough to easily land a comparable QB talent with less volatility.
-Eli Manning – He took A LOT of flack for answering a reporter’s question the way any professional athlete would, “Do you think you’re in the same class as Tom Brady?” Yes. I consider myself one of the best in the game. What else should he say? “Well my brothers as good as Tom Brady is.”
He was tarred and feathered for that answer to start the season but you know what, he’s backing it up. Sure Eli makes some bone-headed throws and is obviously NOT the best QB in the NFL nor in Tom Brady’s tier (although he is 1-0 against him in the Big Dance), but through 5 games he is in the top 5 or 6 for Fantasy QBs and on pace for 4,750 pass yds, 35 TDs, 16 ints + 3 Rush TDs. Pro Bowl numbers most seasons. He also answers the bell every week currently holding the leading consecutive games played streak now that Peyton is out. He actually has been quite serviceable as a fantasy QB throwing at least 2 TDs in every game except Week 1. He’s also thrown 10 TDs in the past 3 games and thrown for 321 yds and 420 yds in the past two. Time to give the guy a break.
-Gronkowski Power? Right before the season started, the Patriots signed 2nd year Stud TE Rob Gronkowski’s older brother to the team as a backup. The first 3 games of the season Gronk went plaid to the tune of 17 recs, 281 yds, 5 TDs (a pace of 90 recs, 1500 yds, 27 TDs which I told you HAD to slow down). After Week 3 they released Dan Gronkowski presumably because they needed the roster spot. The next 2 games, Gronk has slumped with only 5 recs, 46 yds, 0 TDs. Here’s the good news…. Tuesday the Pats re-signed Dan Gronkowski! All should be fine now with Hernandez back as well.
-Adrian Peterson WAS a buy-low candidate before last week but after the 1st quarter and 3 TDs that was over. Hard to be disappointed with his day’s performance, but after doing that much in the 1st quarter he did very little the rest of the game. Similar to Torrey Smith and his 3-TD game in the 1st quarter a few weeks ago.
-Jake Ballard is the Giants’ version of the “White Calvin Johnson”. Well, at least they are similar size (Ballard is 6’6” 275 lbs). So what if Calvin has 4.3 speed, Ballard is probably somewhere in the 5s. Calvin has the leaping ability of a slam dunk champion, Ballard is more of the Rik Smits variety of athleticism. Coming back to Earth, what Ballard is that is similar to Calvin is a BIG target for his QB. Eli likes his TEs also, so while he will not be the next Jimmy Graham, he may turn out to be a top 15-20 or so TE and usable as a bye week fill-in. He brings back memories of Mark Bavaro a bit since he’s bigger than most guys out there hanging from him.
-CAR RBs – Just when it looked like it was clear… Jonathan Stewart was the better RB to have, especially in PPR. He was getting 2:1 touches. All made sense, 2 games DeAngelo Williams is more involved and more productive. I guess it’s a dicey thing and something to avoid and trade out of if you can.
-No one can celebrate a 1st down like Santonio Holmes. He makes every one like it’s his last. Hasn’t he watched football games before? People don’t celebrate every 10-yard play.
-Aaron Hernandez – Originally he was iffy to play. Then they came out firing and going to him over and over and deep. He looked a little slower than normal but still was getting open. He took some shots on it also and kept playing, so that was big. He was a little rusty, dropped a pass or 2 including a TD that wasn’t an easy catch but one he normally makes. The downside of that was it turned into an interception, amazingly the first red-zone int at home Tom Brady has EVER thrown.
(STAT PROJ – I’ll send this to you later in the week)
Here’s some of the FFCPI Calls from Week 5 that went good and bad
Good Calls
F Jackson @ 4
J Best @ 9
F Gore @ 10
B Wells @ 12
M Ingram @ 15
C Benson @ 30
D Bowe @ 7
P Garcon @ 19
Bad Calls
M Ryan @ 7
K Kolb @ 11
J Freeman @12
D McFadden @ 3
V Jackson @ 5
J Nelson @ 17
P Burress @ 19
D Moore @ 20
Follow Jon Millman on Twitter: @FFChamps_Jon
Follow @FFChamps on Twitter
