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What We Learned From NFL Week 5

Contributed by: Danny Fresh
Last Updated: Oct 12, 2011 12:04 PM

Victor Cruz makes an unbelievable TD grab! Patriots/Jets What we learned: Again, sometimes the plays that didnt happen are more telling that those that did. Tom Brady just missed connecting with Aaron Hernandez a few times. He

Victor Cruz makes an unbelievable TD grab!

What did we learn in fantasy football this week? Well I’m glad you asked! Every week we take a look at what key information we can garner from how the NFL’s previous weekend has played out. We examine how coaching strategies, injuries, player developments and performance should affect our choices about our fantasy rosters moving forward.

This was a compelling week, with lots of twists and turns, some fresh new fantasy faces, and a few hidden gems buried deep beneath the action for us to ferret out and crush our opponents with. As always, I ask you to find the trends and ignore the flukes. Now come join me as we take a look at what we learned and what we think we learned from week five:

Titans/Steelers

What we learned:  The Steelers had no business turning in a great game this week. Coach Mike Tomlin had other plans, and he REFUSED to let his team play poorly. Tomlin showed this week why he is one of the best in the business, completely outcoaching the Titans’ Mike Munchak. This is an impossible level of play for them to keep up, but you just can’t write off these Steelers. Big Ben will play, and play well, through grueling injuries. His connection with Mike Wallace is nearly psychic. He won’t throw 5 TDs again, but he will perform.

What we think we learned:  I know what Hines Ward did this week. I know he’s a player we either love, or love to hate. He’s not a fantasy starter. Don’t let this game fool you. Jonathan Dwyer broke off a big run. Nothing doing there.  Rashard Mendenhall will be back and he’ll be dependable. However I’m greatly lowering my expectations for him this year. I think we look back at this year’s “safe bet” in the later 1st round as one of the big disappointments this season. On the same depressing note, we can all stop waiting for Chris Johnson. He’ll have big games now and then, but he’s an RB2 for the rest of the year. I got offered CJ2K for Dez Bryant this week in one of my leagues and I rejected it. So that is where we are at now.

Raiders/Texans

What we learned: Joel Dreessen, just like you expected, right? Don’t become overly enamored with Dreessen.  The story really is what didn’t happen. Jacoby Jones didn’t happen. I’m willing to declare the Jacoby Jones experiment over. I’ve been wrong about him too many times. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, won’t get fooled again!” This annual sleeper has slipped into a fantasy coma. Matt Schaub will continue to spread it around—so other than the under-appreciated Owen Daniels—  you can’t predict which Texan will deliver.

While the complicated and perplexing Al Davis’ legacy will be mixed, you cannot deny how much better our beloved NFL is because of his influence. I’m no Raiders fan, but I’m very happy to see them win this past Sunday. Well done, fellas.

What we think we learned: You have now seen the best two-game streak of Darrius Heyward-Bey’s career. If you’ve got him, SELL HIGH. There are too many weapons in Oakland and DHB ain’t special. One day, Sebastian Janikowski will kick a 70-yard field goal. The next day he’ll be busted for PEDs. Until that happens he can keep kicking for my fantasy team.

Chiefs/Colts

 What we learned:  Answer: This game. Question: What game will most seem like a fantasy dud prior to the first snap, yet end up the most important “What we learned” game of the week? This game is a “What we learned” dream. This is not for the faint of heart, nor for those looking at the surface.  These are the games that can make-or- break your fantasy season. We are going to spend some time here, so settle in.

 Ok, lets get our hands dirty digging deep into this murky mess and see what gems we can pull out. Pierre Garcon’s explosion is probably the most landscape-shifting thing that’s happened in fantasy football in the past two weeks. Everyone will be divided into two over-reactionary camps – That Haters and The Droolers. You make sure you are neither. Here is what we know, Garcon is a talented, young WR who came from a small college program and was labeled as someone who would take time to develop.  He also has the full attention Curtis Painter. The flip side is that it has been two games, against less than stellar opponents. Don’t let the Haters convince you he’s a fluke, but don’t go Drooling after him. If like me you picked him up last week, count on him as a WR3 the rest of the way, or flip him to someone willing to overpay.

Out of nowhere we now have Jackie Battle. This one is a little more straight forward. If you picked him up already, great. Hold onto him. No one will trust him enough to give you anything good yet and you certainly can’t drop him. Now, it’s very likely that the grinding RB just exposed the same terrible Colts defense that teams have been ripping through for weeks…heck, years (see LeGarrette Blount two weeks ago) but he could be this year’s Peyton Hillis. If you have him, hold onto him, and sure, throw a waiver claim in on him. If you can get him for a low upside player in a trade, he’s worth a gamble, but don’t you dare pay a lot for him. This is one game, by a 28 year old overnight sensation, against a terrible run D.

Next up, What to make of Curtis Painter? Here’s what we know – I underrated him last week, he can succeed against lower level NFL defenses. There are weapons on the Colts, and he has great early chemistry with Garcon. I’m still not biting; Let someone else use that waiver claim. If you are real thin at QB he could be an occasional match-up play for you.

What we think we learned: A huge leap of faith here, but keep a real close eye on Austin Collie. With Garcon getting attention and Reggie Wayne being Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie is due for a lot of targets, and he and Painter just missed on a some hook-ups on Sunday. Steve Breaston is an add for sure, if he’s out there still, but keep your expectations level. Again, this was a very poor defense the Chiefs were going against.

Bengals/Jaguars

What we learned:  I had high expectations for A.J. Green. They have only gotten higher. His numbers were great again, and he’s now a must-start! Green’s most impressive play was not his touchdown, but rather a vital 4th and 6 conversion he made, keeping the Bengals momentum moving forward. Andy Dalton and the coaches trust him in vital moments and he delivers. Dalton will keep on feeding him the ball. Lost in the Green/Dalton hype, is the quiet development of Jermaine Gresham. It’s easy to forget Gresham was a highly regarded prospect and now he’s fulfilling his immense potential. There are a lot of bigger names out there, but there are very few playing better than Gresham.

What we think we learned: Speaking of the Red Rifle…I BELIEVE! The kid is an NFL QB, no doubt. The Bengals really nailed this draft and it’s a turning point for this franchise. Dalton is a nice QB2 to target for dynasty leagues.

Saints/Panthers

What we learned:  Next year’s draft Jimmy Graham will be the #1 TE taken. We are looking at Antonio Gates type of production, and you will need to spend a 3rd round pick on him if you want him next year. You might have to do the same for Cam Newton, who has now reached a level as a fantasy force we’ve never seen from a rookie QB. I’ve run out of things to “learn” about him. At this point, it’s all about his completion percentage. Once that starts rising, forget it. An owner in my dynasty league felt confident enough with Newton’s performance to trade Philip Rivers for a WR, and we all agreed it was the right thing to do. That bears repeating. Cam Newton over Philip Rivers.  Next year’s draft -  Rodgers, Brady, Brees…Cam? Strange times, my fantasy friends. Strange times, indeed. You never ever, ever, ever want to get into a fight with Steve Smith.  We should start referring to an athlete opening a can on another athlete as “Steve Smith-ing” them. Remember Greg Olsen? Cam Newton sure does.

What we think we learned: Honestly, I don’t know what to make of DeAngelo Williams’ resurgence. Its not a question of talent with him, but the touches from week to week are unpredictable. You can play him, but you can’t count on him. I’m not buying Pierre Thomas this week, nor am I worried about Ingram’s development moving forward. Ingram will get more and more valuable as the season moves on. If you haven’t accepted this, embrace it now – Darren Sproles is a starting fantasy RB this year.

Eagles/Bills

What we learned: Answer: 5. Question: How many games does it take before we accept the Eagles are this bad and the Bills are this good?  C.J. Spiller should be dropped by all parties not participating in a dynasty league. I would rather start Brad Smith than Spiller right now. Ignore the entire Buffalo receiving box score. Don’t ignore their defense. I talked about this last week, but they are racking up incredible INT numbers. They are a great match-up play.

What we think we learned: With Donald Jones’ injury, I like David Nelson A LOT the rest of the way. Michael Vick had a terrible game, but he also had a ton of fantasy points. You might be able to buy real “low” on Vick right now. On the flip side, if you’ve got Vick and an empty roster spot, Vince Young is not a terrible add….I’m just sayin’.  I would be looking real hard at the sack-happy Redskins defense next week against the Eagles.

 

Cardinals/Vikings

What we learned: The Cardinals are the worst team in football.

What we think we learned: I want to say something great about Adrian Peterson, really I do, but every time I come back to writing about this game, I get dry heaves. Let’s move on.

Seahawks/Giants

What we learned:  I…I don’t know. There is no more confounding team in the NFL than the Giants. I really don’t know what to make of them.

Pop quiz: Jared Allen is leading the NFL with 9 sacks. Who is #2? It’s Jason Pierre-Paul with 7.  The uber-athletic sophomore also leads all DEs with 21 solo tackles. The kid is an IDP star, and he’s still learning.

What we think we learned: I wouldn’t trust much with the Seahwaks success on Sunday, but I’ll be keeping my eyes on Doug Baldwin after the bye week. Victor Cruz makes the most incredible plays and the most absurd mistakes. At this point you’ve got to ride the hot hand as far as he’ll take you.

Buccaneers/49ers

What we learned:  This was one of those games you mostly have to just throw away it was so absurd.  But, a couple quick thoughts – Vernon Davis is officially back. Start him with confidence. Gore is back, ditto. Just make sure you Kendall Hunter also. Nope, still don’t believe in Alex Smith, but I sure believe in his coach.

What we think we learned: These young Buccaneers have talent and a much brighter future than this game showed. However, they are going to have to do some big time growing up if they want to see their potential realized. They are their own biggest obstacle and I fear that consistent inconsistency will mark this 2011 Bucs squad.

Chargers/Broncos

What we learned: Oh lord, the Tim Tebow era is upon us. I’ll be brief, in honor of Tebow’s NFL future (ZING!). His running skill will make him occasionally fantasy worthy, but while he almost lead an amazing comeback last week, remember this: The Chargers spent all week preparing for Kyle Orton, not Tebow. Big difference. Don’t expect too much. Ryan Mathews showed me a lot in that game. He’s a low RB1 or a real high RB2 two at this point.

What we think we learned: Feel free to downgrade your Broncos WRs. If Mike Tolbert were to miss time, Jacob Hester could provide you with the same kind of numbers. In this season of weekly record-breaking aerial performances, the Chargers are not clicking. Some of it is Antonio Gates’ health, but I’m calling out Vincent Jackson. He’s lost WR1 status in my mind.

Patriots/Jets

What we learned: Again, sometimes the plays that didn’t happen are more telling that those that did. Tom Brady just missed connecting with Aaron Hernandez a few times.  Hernandez was coming back of a significant injury and did not play the full game. He still ended up with 5 catches for 56 yards. I know this is tough to fathom right now with Wes Welker on his insane pace, but Aaron Hernandez is the best receiver on the Patriots. He has now completed the equivalent of one whole NFL season. In that “season” he has 784 yards and 8 TDs. The 8 TDs have come in just his last 10 games! He’s only 21 years old!

The Patriots have a terrible pass defense. The Jets didn’t have a strong game through the air. This does not bode well for the Jets’ fantasy outlook moving forward.

What we think we learned: Shonn Greene finally looked like a pro running back. However, the Patriots D makes a lot of folks look good. Just when we thought Stevan Ridley had value, Bill Belichick proved once again why we can’t read into any trend out of his backfield.

Packers/Falcons

What we learned:  I’ve been saying this since week 2, and pounded home the point in week 3, but Matt Ryan is not nearly as good as his reputation. Through five games he has 7 TDs against 6 INTs and 3 fumbles.  Four of those TDs came in one game. He’s a low QB2, which is amazing considering the weapons around him. In general, I’m trending all Falcons downward. They’re rattled, have veterans who are on the other side of the mountain, an antsy fan base, a home-run threat rookie who cost a bunch of picks and just pulled a hammy, a shaky O-line, and an over-rated  QB who has faced little adversity. There is high potential for team implosion in Atlanta.

What we think we learned: Jermichael Finley is getting me worried. In a league overflowing with a bounty of incredible TE’s, Finley is the most athletic and the biggest match-up nightmare. He also has arguably the best QB in the game throwing him the ball. Yet he’s had one good game (well, great game, really) and a whole lot of drops. You drafted him high, you probably have to ride him, but if you can trade on his name value and not his production level, I wouldn’t be mad at you if you moved him for Greg Olsen or Jermaine Gresham and netted yourself an additional starter at WR or RB.

Bears/Lions:

What we learned: Go back and read what I said about Atlanta. Swap “Atlanta” for “Chicago”, and the names “Matt Ryan” and “Jay Cutler”. To be fair Cutler does not have the WR’s or TE Ryan does, but you get the point. If you haven’t jumped on Brandon Pettigrew by now…too late!

What we think we learned: Do you think Jahvid Best knew about Barry Sanders making an appearance on Monday Night Football. Yeah, me too. Sanders was, and is, simply awesome, and Best did his bes…errr…finest impression of the Lions’ legend. Remember Greg Olson? Jay Cutler and Mike Martz do.

One note before I go: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jermichael Finley, Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, Dustin Keller, Jermaine Gresham, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis.  That’s ten TE fantasy starters all 27 or younger. This is the golden age of the position. Plan accordingly and enjoy.

I look forward to your comments below and I'll do my best to respond to them all. If this is your first time checking out my column I encourage you to go back and read the previous weeks.  It will give you a greater sense of trends. Also, you can leave comments making fun of my wrong predictions. (Always good times). Feel free to ask me any line-up or trade questions throughout the week on twitter @TheDannyFresh. See you next week!



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