What I see and thought…
 
Find out what Ian Millman took away from Week 5 and how it will apply to the rest of the 2011 campaign.

Tim Tebow was the #1 Fantasy QB in the three games he started last year and put up some points in his limited action on Sunday.  Grab, stash and potentially look to start.  He had two TD’s last week in a half and in the three games he started last year he had 5 TD’s in the air and 3 on the ground.
 
Greg Little has been named a starter in Cleveland.  It’s about time, he is going to end up being their best playmaker.  I have had him on a couple of teams all year.  I think he could be good in a PPR league with some upside.
 
Don’t go crazy with Jason Avant, the Eagles got behind and had to throw.  He didn’t have all that many more targets than Maclin and Jackson.
 
DeAngelo Williams may be getting his sea legs.  He was banged up to start the year but sure looked good going for 115 yards and a touchdown.  The problem here is that Cam Newton is the goal-line back and Williams still only got 9 touches.  Both he and Stewart are still only usable in a pinch, hopefully the good game, like last week, comes when your stud runner is off.
 
Marques Colston – 6 Targets, Lance Moore – 6 targets, Robert Meachem – 5 targets.  I hate to harp on this but it’s a tough situation to rely on.  I think that the guys on this team, when everyone is healthy, in order that you want to use them are Graham, Sproles, Colston and then it becomes a crapshoot.
 
The Raiders have proven hard to peg offensively.  Denarius Moore clearly looked like he was going to have a big season but now that they are getting healthier it looks like he is moving back down the depth chart.  DHB had 12 targets last week, Ford 7, Moore 6, Schilens and Hagan 3 a piece.  For you Moore owners, at least he was involved and he just missed a long one down the sideline that he was out of bounds when he caught it.  It is starting to look like DHB is the clear cut #1 but Moore will still have some big games.  Pick up Heyward-Bey if he is out there but don’t give up on Moore.
 
Pierre Garcon is getting down the field, as long as Painter is at the helm, Garcon is a starter.  Defenses still have to account for Reggie Wayne and Garcon has the speed and Painter has the arm strength.  Right now it’s working.
 
Dwayne Bowe is going to dominate the Chiefs’ passing game but Steve Breaston is starting to come on.  We were big on him in the preseason and he started slow but his targets and production are on the rise.  He is grab-and-stash material.
 
Jackie Battle is going to be a hot pickup but I am not enamored with him.  Don’t get me wrong, we advocate giving anyone and everyone a shot on waivers, including Battle, but just temper expectations.  He is 28 years old and has 41 carries for 118 yards in his career before this year.
 
I find it tough to make any inferences about the Seahawks because the Giants 11 on D are in Matador training or something.  They stayed away from Webster so Obomanu and Baldwin had double the targets as Rice.  When Williams comes back it is going to get more muddled but I like Doug Baldwin as a grab and stash.  He is probably more seasoned than other rookies because he played at Stanford with Luck.  He has also had 3 pretty good games for a WR3, of the 5.
 
Victor Cruz keeps getting it done but I am telling you, he will come crashing down to earth soon.  He has to - all 3 of his TD’s have been fluky.  There was a short hail mary, there was the 5-yard pass where the Eagles were making a video on how not to tackle, and there was the tip drill last week that Seattle really needs to work on.  There hasn’t been a good clean TD yet. 
 
Don’t jump on the Jonathan Dwyer, Ike Redman bandwagon.  In, fact, there really should be no bandwagon at all.  At best, these guys are handcuffs, Rashard Mendenhall will be back in his full-time role against the Jags this week.
 
The Niners’ leading receiver last week, Josh Morgan, is out, so that should mean an increased role for Mike Crabtree and Vernon Davis.  Davis is an every-week starter but watch Crabtree, he may emerge as a viable option.
 
Earnest Graham is a great fill in this week.  Blount is almost certainly out and so Graham should get a ton of touches in the running and passing game.
 
There has been a lot of talk about whether Josh Freeman and Mike Williams are drops.  I don’t think so, but it is all relative and depends on who you would be dropping them for.  I have seen the waiver wires and pretty much know who is out there so my blanket statement would be to hold on to these guys, but again, its relative.  Also, I would think they have to get better, I mean, can Josh Freeman throw 9 or 10 TD’s?
 
Say what you want about Ryan Mathews and being injury prone.  I am ready to move past that and call him gutsy and a warrior.  He was in and out of the game last week with a bum calf and gutted out 125 yards on 24 carries.  He is a top 10-runner and first rounder for years to come.  You can start to elevate him to that level in your mind for trades.
 
I still can’t believe what Denver is doing with Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno.  I will say that McGahee has looked good the last two weeks but he is not explosive like Moreno, just look at the TD Moreno scored.  If you are 1-4 maybe you should look at why, you barely get 4 yards and a cloud of dust in the running game then you don’t convert and you punt.  You need playmakers Foxy!  Get Moreno in the game!
 
Trade Deion Branch if you can, he only got all of those looks because it was harder to get Welker the ball.  Branch is still going to be behind Wes, Gronk and Hernandez in the pecking order.  Speaking of Hernandez, he really is going to be a Fantasy stud, they try to get him the ball down the field a lot and he is big and shifty in the red zone.
 
James Jones is worth a pickup but I have been hearing guys make big exhaling noises exclaiming that Jones has finally arrived.  Not so fast, there are too many options on this team and he is still behind Jennings and Finley and probably Jordy Nelson.  This type of offense is always going to do this, hit a guy for a big play and make him look like the second coming of Jerry Rice.
 
Tony Gonzalez will be even better without Julio Jones in the lineup and he has been very serviceable.  He won’t get you the monster 8 catch 100 yard, 2 TD games anymore but he is definitely still a top 10 TE.
 
You know what Chicago’s problem is, they messed up the formula.  They were in the NFC Championship game last year and the offense was pretty good.  They add Roy Williams, anoint him a starter, screw up Johnny Knox and the rest of the receivers and then end up relegating Williams to the bench.  Granted the O-line stinks and Bennett is a bigger loss than you think but Mike Martz is an idiot in my opinion.
 
 
Quick Hitters
 
Trade BJ Green-Ellis NOW!
 
Naaman Roosevelt is one to keep an eye on, he was the guy that replaced Donald Jones and caught 5 passes.
 
Kevin Walter has scored in two straight and Jacoby Jones caught 1 of his11 targets.  Do the math.
 
Curtis Painter isn’t half bad, he is worth a pickup if you need some QB help.
 
Matt Cassel falls into that boat too, he is playing better, KC is off this week though.
 
One of Delone Carter or Donald Brown is worth a pickup with Addai out.  It looks like it will be a committee though.
 
A.J. Green is going to put up the best rookie WR numbers in a long time.
 
Just another day at the office for Aaron Rodgers, 400 yards, 2 TD’s and he hit 12 different receivers.
 
Arizona totally killed me in a pool for big money.  They beat the Panthers, played the Skins, Giants and Seahwaks real tight and then get the tar kicked out of them by Donny McNabb and the Vikes? 
 
What’s the deal with Early Doucet getting 16 targets and Fitzgerald getting 8?  Maybe that’s part of the problem?
 
Jake Ballard, it may not be pretty, but it’s working.
 
5 of Big Ben’s 24 completions were sixers, that’s pretty good but I am still a little down on him, just not as down as before.
 
Do you think Frank Gore heard Kendall Hunter’s footsteps?
 
I would think Lloyd and Decker take a hit with Tebow at the helm.

Follow Ian Millman on Twitter: @FFChamps_Ian


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