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Target Analysis Week 7: Buy-Low Players

Contributed by: Jared Dang
Last Updated: Oct 21, 2011 12:10 PM

Depending on how many targets a player receives, fantasy owners can see if a players usage is going up, and thus are able to tell which players are ready to breakout or decline. On The Rise Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers Week 5 stats: 2 rec, 36 yards, 5 Targets Week 6 stats: 9 rec, 77 yards, 15 Targets Was mentioned here a few weeks ago a

Depending on how many targets a player receives, fantasy owners can see if a player's usage is going up, and thus are able to tell which players are ready to breakout or decline.

On The Rise


Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
Week 5 stats: 2 rec, 36 yards, 5 Targets
Week 6 stats: 9 rec, 77 yards, 15 Targets
Was mentioned here a few weeks ago after a nine target day against Philadelphia but that's peanuts compared to 15 targets. Crabtree is clearly Alex Smith's favorite target and if the high volume of targets is any indication, a touchdown is coming soon.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints
Week 5 stats: 5 rec, 69 yards, 6 Targets
Week 6 stats: 7 rec, 118 yards, 11 Targets, 1 TD
Sure, Drew Brees has a plethora of receivers and while that might scare some owners away from Colston, it shouldn't. The two have a history of starting off slow but once they get going around the middle of the season, only a handful of duos are scarier.

Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals
Week 5 stats: 4 rec, 40 yards, 7 Targets
Week 6 stats: 6 rec, 101 yards, 9 Targets
After Simpson's recent stint in Marvin Lewis' doghouse (much better than a Cincinnati jailhouse), he has returned to being one of the highest targeted Bengals. Against Indianapolis he led the team in receving yards and targets.

DeMaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
Brandon Lloyd's absence allows Thomas, the Broncos number-1 pick in the 2010 draft, a chance to showcase his skills once he comes back from injury. For now, Eddie Royal is the guy most likely to replace Lloyd, but John Fox clearly wants to see what his young guys can do (Tebow) so it's only a matter of time before Thomas is inserted into the starting lineup.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns
Week 4 stats: 7 carries, 22 yards 5 rec, 49 yards
Week 6 stats: 11 carries, 35 yards, 2 rec, 18 yards
Peyton Hillis will likely be out at least for one week because of his hamstring, but with all the drama going on with him and his contract, Hardesty could very well be the starting running back by the end of the season. Don't expect much against Seattle's league leading rush defense as the Seahawks are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry.

Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins
Week 4 stats: 19 carries, 135 yards, 1 TD
Week 6 stats: 10 carries, 22 yards
Everybody crossing their fingers in hopes that Torain would be the lead back against Philadelphia got their wish. Unfortunately, Torain did absolutely nothing with his carries and the Redskins were forced to abandon the run game as Philadelphia went up 20-0 in the first half courtesy of four Rex Grossman interceptions. However, we learned that Torain will likely continue to be the feature back with Tim Hightower still slightly injured. A tasty matchup against the Panthers' 31st ranked run defense awaits.

Devin Hester, WR, Bears
Week 5 stats: 5 rec, 32 yards, 7 Targets
Week 6 stats: 5 rec, 91 yards, 7 Targets, 1 TD
Has Hester finally made himself into a reliable receiver? No. Not even close. Well, probably not. It is interesting to see that he has caught 10 out of his 14 targets the past two weeks. He definitely has the potential to become a viable fantasy option, but it would be wise to wait at least one more week to see if Hester can do it again.

Mark Clayton, WR, Rams
Clayton should return to the Rams starting lineup within a week or two. While it is tough to get excited about a guy who has disappointed his entire career, Clayton had decent success with Sam Bradford his first four games of the 2010 season in which in racked up 300 yards and two touchdowns before a torn patellar tendon ended his season. Sure, Brandon Lloyd will be around to take targets away, but Clayton has a chemistry with Bradford that Lloyd doesn't.

Underperforming

Roddy White, WR, Falcons
Week 5 stats: 6 rec, 50 yards, 9 Targets, 1 TD
Week 6 stats: 2 rec, 21 yards, 5 Targets
With Julio Jones out, White was expected to go back to being Matt Ryan's preferred target, however the Carolina run defense was so porous, Ryan only attempted 22 passes and White finished with another quiet game.

Sell High

Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
Week 4 stats: 3 rec, 33 yards, 12 Targets
Week 5 stats: 4 rec, 60 yards, 6 Targets, 1 TD
Week 6 stats: 3 rec, 61 yards, 4 Targets, 1 TD
For as much talent as Holmes has, he hadn't been able to find much success with Mark Sanchez during the first four weeks of the season. Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller still receive healthy amounts of targets and will the rest of the season and it appears Rex Ryan is committed to running Shonn Greene despite the fact that Greene is awful. With back-to-back TD weeks, there isn't a better sell high candidate.

Position Battles

Victor Cruz, WR, Giants                                                        vs.             Mario Manningham, WR, Giants
Week 4 stats: 6 rec, 98 yards, 9 Targets                                                    1 rec, 10 yards, 5 Targets
Week 5 stats: 8 rec, 161 yards, 11 Targets, 1 TD                                       5 rec, 56 yards, 9 Targets
Week 6 stats: 2 rec,12 yards, 4 Targets                                                      5 rec, 56 yards, 8 Targets

The problem with Cruz and Manningham is that they are both very talented receivers. One week you'll read fantasy experts talking how Cruz will be a reliable option even though he plays primarily from the slot and other weeks you'll hear Manningham is clearly the 2nd best fantasy receiver for the Giants because he starts. As for which receiver is the better fantasy play the answer is simple. Neither of them. Sure, both of these these guys will have good days ahead of them, it's just impossible to predict which guy will score. Lately, Manningham's targets were best for all Giants receivers and he almost had two touchdowns against the Bills, but remember that before last week it was Cruz who seemed to have the upperhand.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots                                            vs.                    Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
Week 5 stats: 5 rec 56 yards, 9 Targets                                                            4 rec, 31 yards, 4 Targets
Week 6 stats: 8 rec, 68 yards, 14 Targets, 1 TD                                               7 rec, 74 yards, 7 Targets
Hernandez is a lock for around 10+ targets every week, which is a problem for Gronkowski owners who thought he would be Tom Brady's main squeeze (not named Welker). Gronkowski will put up numbers, but will be maddeningly unpredicatable as well. He isn't Jermichael Finley unpredictable because the Gronk receives for a high number of yards, but touchdowns will be hard to come by because of all the weapons Brady can choose from.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins                                             vs.                             Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins
Week 6 stats: 15 carries, 47 yards                                                                         10 carries, 71 yards, 2 rec, 7 yards
According to FFChamps.com Thomas "is built more like an every-down back compared to Bush, but both RBs are having trouble staying healthy."  This was Thomas' first game back from injury and will likely see more carries going forward. However, that's not to say bush is completely dead. A 7.1 yards per carry average most likely has earned him at least 10 touches per game.

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The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.