(Note: Fans can get Cold, Hard Football Facts “real and spectacular” picks for every game every week at CHFF Insider; we have three seasons of documented success, including a mark of .500 or better against the spread in an incredible 31 of 40 weeks since the start of the 2009 season.)
 
By Kerry J. Byrne
 
The Colts have dominated the AFC South for more than a decade behind the brilliant Peyton Manning. But the division is wide open this year as the injured future Hall of Fame QB watches from the press box as his team goes winless. Either the 3-2 Tennessee Titans or the 3-3 Houston Texans will win the division and they meet Sunday in the Music City in the first big AFC South clash of 2011.Texans-Titans is our Week 7 Game of the Week.

Here are three Cold, Hard Football Facts you need to know about Houston-Tennessee before kickoff: 

1. Old warhorse Matt Hasselbeck still has plenty of gridiron giddy-up – The Titans nabbed Jake Locker with the No. 8 overall pick of the 2011 draft and then signed 13-year veteran Hasselbeck as an insurance  policy in late July.
 
If only we were so smart before our first two wives "slipped in the bathroom" and got "food poisining."

Hasselbeck has proven the best veteran acquisition of the 2011 off-season. The former Seattle Pro Bowler is a big reason Tennessee is 3-2 and in prime position to capture the AFC South title at this early stage of the season.
 
Hasselbeck has completed 64.6 percent of his passes with 9 TD, 7.8 YPA and a 95.9 rating – all putting him on pace for one of the best years of his career.
 
When you look at the Titans through the prism of our Quality Stats, they are No. 7 in Offensive Passer Rating, No. 7 in Real Quarterback Rating, No. 8 in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt and – perhaps most importantly – No. 2 in Negative Pass Plays (5.82%). Hasselbeck has thrown just 4 INTs and suffered 7 sacks in 188 dropbacks.
 
Hasselbeck ended the 2010 season with a bang, too: 7 TDs and just 1 INT in the playoffs. He torched the Saints with 4 TDs and a 113.0 rating during Seattle’s big wildcard upset and followed that performance with 3 TDs and a 94.3 rating against a stiff Chicago defense that was No. 3 last year in Defensive Passer rating.
 
The Bears dominated the game, but at least we learned that Hasselbeck could still play a mean QB. Tennessee coach Mike Munchak certainly saw something. Hasselbeck’s performance in his last seven games, including those two playoff contests, is impressive:
 
165 of 262 (63.0%), 1,944 yards, 7.4 YPA, 16 TD, 5 INT, 97.9 rating
 
Most teams this side of Green Bay and New England would settle for that kind of performance. And it’s certainly a step up over last year, when Titans QBs Kerry Collins, Vince Young and good ol’ Rusty "Trombone" Smith combined for  24 TD, 15 INT, 6.9 YPA and an 82.6 rating.
 
It also gives Tennessee an advantage at quarterback as it prepares to host Houston. Texans QB Matt Schaub has put up great numbers in recent years and has been surrounded by great weapons. But this year Hasselbeck has outperformed Schaub in almost every major measure of passing efficiency – those stats that correlate most successfully to wins and losses.
 
Hasselbeck and the Titans, for example, are No. 7 at Real Quarterback Rating; Schaub and the Texans are No. 9. It’s a slight edge, but an important one, in the single most important indicator in football.
 
According to the Correlation to Victory chart that we use at CHFF Insider, teams that win the Real Quarterback Rating battle this year are an incredible 74-16 (.822). No indicator in football correlates more often to victory and defeat.
 
For some perspective, teams that pass for more yards are a mere 43-47 (.478). Like we say, winning in the NFL is not about volume, it’s all about passing efficiency. And the Titans are a surprising 3-2 because Hasselbeck has been extraordinarily efficient passing the ball.
 
Cold, Hard Football Facts Real Quarterback Rating is also one of the best predictors of victory in football: teams that enter a game superior in Real QB Rating this year have gone 57-33 (.633) through Week 6.
 
History proves that this predictive rate of success will rise as we get later in the year and that Real QB Rating will be an extraordinarily effective way to separate winners from losers. It's already an advantage, though a slight one, for the Titans.
 
2. Wade Phillips is the Assistant Coach of the Year so far in 2011 – The Texans have been haunted by miserable pass defenses through the organization’s brief history.
 
That miserable history bottomed out in 2010, when Houston fielded the worst pass defense in football – a 100.5 Defensive Passer Rating. It was not only the NFL’s worst pass defense of 2010, it was one of the 10 worst pass defenses in the history of football.
 
Enter Phillips, hired as defensive coordinator at the end of the 2010 season. His track record as a head coach was spotty at least (lowlighted by the fact that he’s the architect of the Curse of Flutie).
 
But as a defensive coordinator, he’s pieced together a series of great units wherever he's gone. And his performance so far in Houston will only pad the resume.
 
The Texans right now are No. 4 in Defensive Passer Rating (75.9), easily the best mark in franchise history and light years ahead of the effort just one year ago. To understand Defensive Passer Rating, all you need to know is that opposing quarterbacks have posted a cumulative 75.9 passer rating against Houston this year.
 
It’s a critical measure of team wide success throughout all of NFL history – the 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers were No. 1 in DPR, for example. And failure in this indicator is a big reason the Texans have struggled to win games through their history. Here’s a look at Houston’s Defensive Passer Rating each year of its history.
 
 

	DPR	Rank	Record
2002	82.1	14th	4-12
2003	86.2	26th	5-11
2004	88.7	21st	7-9
2005	100.0	31st	2-14
2006	91.6	30th	6-10
2007	93.6	30th	8-8
2008	92.3	26th	8-8
2009	83.2	14th	9-7
2010	100.5	32nd	6-10
2011	75.9	4th	3-3

 
It’s hard to win games in the NFL when you can’t stop the opposing quarterback. The Texans have struggled to win games because they’ve struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks. In fact, just 10 teams in history have posted a Defensive Passer Rating of 100.0 or worse. Two of those two teams were the 2005 and 2010 Texans.
 
If the offense can live up to expectations and the team in general can learn to cope with success – a huge question mark after a 3-1 record followed by two straight losses – Houston has a solid defensive foundation this year upon which to build.
 
Phillips has inspired this turnaround in the space of one year, overcoming a decade of futility for Houston’s pass defense in the process.
 
3. Both organizations need to prove they have the mettle to take the AFC South title and become legit contenders. Success has been few and far between for each of these organizations.
 
Houston, famously, has enjoyed just one winning season since its founding in 2002 (9-7 in 2009) and has never reached the playoffs. It’s franchise record of 59-92 (.387) is the worst among all 32 NFL teams.
 
The Tennessee Titans are the original Houston team – they played as the Houston Oilers from 1960 to 1996 – and have enjoyed some spotty success. The Houston Oilers won the first two AFL championships while the 2000 Tennessee Titans won the AFC title. But one conference title in 45 years  of the Super Bowl hardly makes you an elite NFL franchise.
 
The window is wide open this year, though. The Peyton Manning injury and Jacksonville’s traditional commitment to ineffective Stone Age-style football under head coach Jack Del Rio makes the AFC South a two-team race: either Houston or Tennessee WILL win the division and perhaps even earn a first-round bye.
 
Even the conference itself is wide open, as the balance of power in the NFL has clearly shifted to the senior circuit after a decade of dominance by the AFC.
 
The Patriots are 5-1 behind Tom Brady, but they field a defense so bad it is statistically impossible for that team to win a Super Bowl; defending AFC champ Pittsburgh is suffering through its typical Super Bowl hangover; Baltimore looks like the team to beat thanks to a world-class defense, but the play of QB Joe Flacco has been far less than championship caliber; the under-achieving Chargers are 4-1, but once again a paper tiger. San Diego’s four wins have come against sad-sack opponents with a combined record of 4-17.
 
That leaves the winner of the AFC South in the mix for the AFC title – providing they can put together all the pieces.
 
Tennessee’s Hasselbeck needs to continue his strong play and the defense needs to continue to be one of the league leaders (No. 6 in scoring D at 18.8 PPG). Houston needs to prove its pass defense can do it over the long haul and QB Schaub needs to step up and take it to the next level – something more than just a guy who puts up some nice numbers.
 
Recent trends are not good, however.
 
Houston began the season 3-1 then suffered a bad 25-20 home loss to the Raiders. It’s the type of game the Texans MUST win to be taken seriously. They followed up that loss with a brutal 29-14 loss during a trip to Baltimore. Houston has the look of a team that’s afraid of success.
 
The Titans have been statistically stout: No. 6 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings.  But they have not been consistent. They opened the year with a bad 18-16 loss on the road against what we now know is a lousy Jacksonville team. They were impressive at home, handed Baltimore its own loss and doing it in impressive fashion, 26-13. But then two weeks ago, in their last game before the bye, Tennessee was whitewashed at Pittsburgh, 38-17.
 
One team must prove it’s a winner – and that effort begins Sunday in Tennessee. The winner will have a huge leg up on a two-team race for the AFC South title.

The Statistical Clash You Need to Follow: Houston’s wounded pass rush vs. Tennessee's great pass protection
The NFL is a very simple game: you almost always win when your quarterback outplays the opposing quarterback.
 
But it’s not just a mano-a-mano match-up. Offensive lines that protect their passer best give their team the best chance to win; defensive lines that collapse the pocket and make life tough on the opposing passer turn the edge in favor of their own team.
 
And that effort brings us to the big statistical clash in our Game of the Week.
 
The Titans, as noted above, are No. 2 in the NFL at preventing Negative Pass Plays. Just 5.8 percent of dropbacks by the Titans have ended in a sack or INT. It’s one of the big reasons the team is 3-2.
 
But Houston, like the rest of the team’s defense, is markedly improved this year in getting after the passer.
 
The 2011 Texans defense has forced a Negative Pass Play on 10.5 percent of dropbacks. Only six teams are better this year. It’s another one of the remarkable improvements under new defense coordinator Wade Phillips. The 2010 Texans forced a Negative pass play on just 7.5 percent of dropbacks, 27th in the NFL.
 
Few teams have consistently got in the face of Hasselbeck. If the Texans can do so, it will go a long way toward carrying them to victory.

One big problem, of course: star defender Mario Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and a two-time Pro Bowler, tore his pectoral muscle during the Oakland game two weeks ago. He’ll miss the remainder of the season.

The Pick
The Titans and Texans are evenly matched in many of our most important indicators. Tennessee is No. 6 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings; Houston is No. 7.
 
But Houston is No. 11 on our Relativity Index; Tennessee is No. 15. In other words, the Texans have actually outperformed the Titans relativity to the quality of their opponents.
 
There are three other big factors at work here though that separate these two teams.
 
ONE – Houston is just 1-2 on the road – the lone victory came against the winless, sad-sack Dolphins. Not a good trend.

TWO – The Texans are also battling some key injuries: in addition to defender Williams being out for the year, All-World WR Andre Johnson will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury.
 
THREE – The Titans are coming off a bye and are at home this week, where they have yet to lose in 2011 and where they fashioned an impressive 26-13 blowout win over the otherwise unbeaten 4-1 Ravens in Week 2 – the same Baltimore team that just beat up the Texans with a 17-0 fourth quarter last Sunday 
 
Pick: Tennessee 27, Houston 21

Season record: 5-1 

Week 1 pick: Detroit 24, Tampa 20
Week 1 result: Detroit 27, Tampa 20
 
Week 2 pick: New England 27, San Diego 24
Week 2 result: New England 35, San Diego 21
 
Week 3 pick: New Orleans 30, Houston 23
Week 3 result: New Orleans 40, Houston 33
 
Week 4 pick: Detroit 26, Dallas 24
Week 4 result: Detroit 34, Dallas 30
 
Week 5 pick: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24
Week 5 result:Green Bay 25, Atlanta 14
 
Week 6 pick: Detroit 23, San Francisco 20
Week 6 result: San Francisco 25, Detroit 19
 
 

Follow @FFChamps on Twitter

The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.