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Contributed by:
Danny Fresh
Last Updated: Nov 01, 2011 5:29 PM |
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If you’ve been reading this column regularly you’re likely notices that I’ve added a new feature, One Note Before I Go, to the end of each column. The purpose is to take a step back and get a big picture look at overall trends effecting the league, not just specific teams. Last week I predicted an increase in defensive scoring, and that certainly played out in a big way this week. I fully expect that trend to continue. At this point most the defenses out there have show their true colors. This year there is very little separation between the top 10 or so defenses. If you don’t have one on your team, it’s likely that someone else in your league has two. Make that owner a reasonable offer. Trust me, you’ll thank me come play-off time.
If you are new to this column, welcome aboard! Here is the quick rundown: Each week we examine how coaching strategies, injuries, player developments and performance should affect our choices about our fantasy rosters moving forward. Our mantra is simple Find Trends, Ignore Flukes. Got it? Good. Now you’re ready – Let’s look at what we learned and what we think we learned from week eight:
Dolphins/Giants
What we learned: Let’s be honest, if you’re counting on Dolphins this season, you’re likely already in big trouble. So, let’s focus on the Giants. Here is an important one to start you off. Historically, we are used to a Giants defense that is stout against the run, but has a secondary that can be exploited for big gains. That’s just the opposite for this year’s Big Blue. Reggie Bush was able to gain only his 2nd career 100-yard game against New York, while Brandon Marshall led all Dolphins with 4 catches for 55 yards.
What we think we learned: Talking about a changing Giants identity, the passing game is where this offense does its damage - not the running game. Ahmad Bradshaw has been up and down all season and has a foot injury. Brandon Jacobs is once again grumbling as if his play dictated a bigger role. In the meantime, along with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, the emergence of Victor Cruz and Jake Ballard have provided a suddenly mistake-free Eli Manning with the best collection of targets he’s ever played with
Jaguars/Texans
What we learned: This game, more or less, was exactly what we expected, so I’ll just hit a couple quick points. First off, another game for the Texans defense putting up a solid, if unspectacular, score. In a down year for defenses, this is a reliable starting quality defense with great match-ups the rest of the way.
What we think we learned: While Andre Johnson has been out, TE Joel Dreessen has racked up 3 touchdowns in 4 games. Texan’s starter Owen Daniels has had durability issues the last few years, and if he were to go down again Dreessen would be a hot add...that’s assuming folks know how to spell his name.
Cardinals/Ravens
What we learned: Beanie Wells was back and played, making Alfonso Smith a non-factor. The troubling news was that Wells seemed to lack any burst and has acknowledged that his knee troubles will be with him all year. Sliding waaaaay down the board. If you are in a league that awards points for return yardage, you could do a lot worse than
What we think we learned: Torrey Smith is firmly entrenched as the Ravens #2 WR.
Saints/Rams
What we learned: A blow out, just like we figured right? Sheesh. No one saw this coming. The Rams young defensive line was just plain impressive. The high draft picks and resources used to build up this unit showed massive returns on Sunday. Despite their record, their level of dominance in this game points to a bright Rams future. Steven Jackson is the most unappreciated star in the league. The guy has been a fantasy monster, stuck on some terrible teams. He was fantastic on Sunday—running hard, controlling the game both in his play and his emotion. Look for a now healthy Jackson to remind us down the stretch just how good he is.
What we think we learned: One of the reasons that Jackson had success this week is the addition of Brandon Lloyd to the Rams. Lloyd changes this entire offense. Best trade in a long, long time. For the most part, you throw away this game for the Saints. One thing to hold on to though is Pierre Thomas got a chance to get a bulk of the ground game with Mark Ingram out, and was less than impressive.
Vikings/Panthers
What we learned: Christian Ponder totally belongs. He shows poise, makes good decisions and the team is responding to him. Ponder is a significant upgrade over Donovan McNabb. What a rookie class this is turning out to be! After a worrisome start to the season, Adrian Peterson is running with increased confidence and his inclusion into the passing game is a huge bonus to fantasy owners.
What we think we learned: Brandon LaFell has shown flashes of a future #1 WR. The resurgence of Steve Smith will keep pressure off the young LaFell, and will provide the opportunity for him to develop at a good pace. Dynasty owners should be taking note. Greg Olson bounced back from a rough game to turn in another strong performance, continuing his solid season. As a declining Jeremy Shockey moves further out of the way, Olson and Cam Newton will have a quite a run together these next few years.
DeAngelo Williams. Done.
Colts/Titans
What we learned: Admit it, I warned you not to start Chris Johnson but you didn’t listen to me. You saw the match-up against the Colts, you listened to all the other experts telling you this was CJ2K’s break-out game. You started him. He was terrible. You lost. Now, do the right thing and sit him on your bench until further notice. Javon Ringer looked better than him and the Titans have announced they are going RBBC moving forward.
What we think we learned: It’s amazing that it has come to this but, after the Rams’ performance on Sunday, the Colts…THE COLTS…are the top match-up to start your defense against.
Lions/Broncos
What we learned: Tebow fanatics, I believe you were warned. On a positive note Broncos fans, Von Miller is a star in the making. He didn’t put up huge numbers this week, but he’s got the look. And, owners in Dynasty IDPs should be stashing him away.
What we think we learned: The Lions certainly got back on track in a big way. Don’t you for one second be lulled into thinking Tony Scheffler’s game indicates he’s back in the game plan. The TE job in Detroit is Brandon Pettigrew’s.
Redskins/Bills
What we learned: Hopefully you read last week’s comments about avoiding all Redskins other than Fred Davis. I’ve heard from a number of my readers who are Redskins fans that I’m too hard on Washington. Take a look at the box score from this game, and then tell me if you still think I’m being too hard on the Redskins.
What we think we learned: I’m not jumping on the Scott Chandler train. There are just too many TEs out there to use a guy who only has value if he catches TDs.
Bengals/Seahawks
What we learned: AJ Green is on pace for the second greatest rookie season for WR ever (Randy Moss being the first). The Bengals Defense is a legit top ten squad. And, their playoff match-ups? Week 15 at St. Louis, Week 16 home against Arizona. Mmmmm, fantasy deliciousness.
What we think we learned: Seattle was behind all day and throwing it, so the receiving numbers can be a little deceiving. But, it’s nice to see rookie Doug Baldwin bounce back after his zero catch performance last week. The kid can play. Fantasy owners can finally, once and for all, be done with the Bernard Scott hype.
Browns/49ers
What we learned: Unfortunately, the opportunity to get a good look at Montario Hardesty for the second straight week with Peyton Hillis out, was lost to calf injury. Hardesty looks like he will miss some time. Much like the Redskins, there is nothing on the Browns team to rely on…and, yes, I mean Hillis as well.
What we think we learned: The 49ers are a sneaky offense. I don’t believe in Alex Smith, but he has learned to limit turnovers, and the effects of that improvement have been significant. Their talented defense isn’t always on the field and stays fresh. This allows the strong San Francisco run attack, particularly Frank Gore, to control the clock and rack up big numbers. We know all about Vernon Davis, but add now-healthy Braylon Edwards—and the FINALLY coming around Michael Crabtree—and this is a team that can make some noise. Keep your eyes on them. There are some buy low candidates getting ready to pop off.
Patriots/Steelers
What we learned: The Steelers turned in their most complete games of the season. Everyone got in on the act and this is an offense with an arrow pointing up. That said, Rashard Mendenhall owners are banging their heads against the wall at this point. You have to start him each week and hope for the best, but it’s going to be rocky. Just accept it and find peace. Maybe you can find the Chris Johnson owner in your league and start a support group.
Both Tom Brady and Wes Welker have returned to Earth. They are both excellent options, of course, but have both settled into their proper placement in the fantasy universe. Hopefully you heeded my advice and traded Welker at his peak value after week 4.
What we think we learned: The Steelers best line-up is with Hines Ward on the sideline. The WR trio of Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown is lethal. Stevan Ridley has a future in the league, but not on your fantasy team this year.
Cowboys/Eagles
What we learned: Well, the Eagles certainly used their bye efficiently, didn’t they. DeSean Jackson is not a complete receiver. Jeremy Maclin is. The Eagles are making it clear that while Jackson has unmatched explosiveness, we should expect the trend of Maclin being the more consistently valuable of the two to continue.
Dear Jerry Jones,
You hired the wrong coach.
Dear Tony Romo,
Throw Dez Bryant the damn ball. ALL THE TIME.
What we think we learned: The Cowboys have issues my friends. Big ones. The coach doesn’t trust the quarterback. The QB only trusts the tight end. Romo is forcing it to Jason Witten, and he was off-target often. There is a palpable gap growing between Bryant and Romo. And, there is a hint of Terrell Owens in the air.
One positive note for Dallas: DeMarco Murray looked good again. But we didn’t see enough touches to really know. It’s two strong games in a row for TE Brent Celek. Remember, it was only two seasons ago when Celek was considered a top TE in the league. He is still quite young and injury-free. If Michael Vick has finally come around to realizing what using the talented TE can do for him and his team, Celek will quickly return to TE1 status. On speculation alone he is worthy of a spot. He’s likely out there on your waivers. Grab him now.
Chargers/Chiefs
What we learned: This game turned out to be a Halloween treat for us, and a real trick for the Chargers. Philip Rivers’ ego is a big part of his success in the NFL. But he is letting it get the better of him. Rivers thinks he can make any play at any time and he’s forcing the ball, deciding in advance where the throw is going to go, as opposed to reading what the defense is giving him. Defenses are reaping the rewards of his misplaced confidence.
I’ve been able to crow about a lot this week, but now I’m going to eat some of that crow. Way back in my week 2 article, I pronounced the Chiefs dead. Even last week, after their defensive annihilation of the Raiders, I gave them no credit, chalking it up to poor offensive play by Oakland. Kansas City, I humbly apologize. This defense has some fantastic talent out there, and they all seem to be coming of age at the right time. And, they get a flailing Dolphins team next week.
What we think we learned: I’m in on Jackie Battle. You should be too. It may be a one-year ride, but it’ll be a fun one. Ryan Matthew’s fumbling and injuries continue to haunt the talented running back. He’s a fine RB2, but he is still well below the true RB1s. Jonathan Baldwin just gave you a glimpse of why the Chiefs took the risk on this troubled WR and why you should too with your waiver pick this week. Steve Breaston and Dwayne Bowe owners need to watch this situation very carefully.
One note before I go: This will be no surprise to those of you in the Northeast, but the weather is turning, and fast. Soon all across the country, outdoor games will be played in colder temperatures, under grey skies and occasionally in snow storms. As football fans, there is nothing we like more. The fall heading into winter is football season in its purest form. It’s the games we remember from our youth, the visuals of seeing players’ breath on the sidelines, the sounds of hits so hard they make our teeth hurt.
As fantasy owners it means something much more specific: the running games are coming. Up to this point, this season has been marked by dizzying air shows and unheard of numbers. That’s all starting to change. Defenses are tightening up, and teams are starting to punish opponents with the blunt force of a rushing attack. Look over your roster, if you have WRs with high value who are slated for a lot of outdoor games going forward, look strongly at moving them for slightly undervalued RBs. What seems like you are slightly over-paying now, will look like a steal in just a few short weeks.
I look forward to your comments below and I'll do my best to respond to them all. If this is your first time checking out my column I encourage you to go back and read the previous weeks. It will give you a greater sense of trends. Also, you can leave comments making fun of my wrong predictions. Always good times. Feel free to ask me any line-up or trade questions through out the week on twitter @TheDannyFresh. See you next week!
The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.