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Fantasy Focus Week 9; A Case For Chris Johnson

Contributed by: Justin Bonnema
Last Updated: Nov 02, 2011 11:46 AM

Don't Stop Believing in CJ or Rashard Allow me to take some creative liberties and rewrite a portion of that song. Feel free to sing along: Just a running back, Hits the ground with no attack. Hes getting guaranteed money anywa

Don't Stop Believing in CJ or Rashard

Allow me to take some creative liberties and rewrite a portion of that song. Feel free to sing along:

Just a running back,
Hits the ground with no attack.
He's getting guaranteed money anyway.

Just a first round pick,
Used to make defenders miss.
He's getting guaranteed money anyway.

Okay, I'll stop ruining the best karaoke song ever. But I won't stop believing in Chris Johnson.

I'm aware of the stats. I've seen the game film. I live in Nashville, so I hear a lot of fans calling into 104.5 “The Zone” expressing their frustrations, using words like “tepid” and questioning his role in the offense. It's all justified. It reverberates across the nation. Anyone that drafted CJ in the first round is frustrated and feels trapped, like they have to start him. Rule number one: don't bench your studs. Nobody wants to be that guy. Still, they won't trade him and be low-balled by guys such as myself trying to buy low. They want first-round money. They want validation.

It's interesting to think about what could have been. If it weren't for injuries, maybe the Titans wouldn't have cut LeGarrette Blount. If they don't cut Blount, Johnson doesn't have the bargaining power he had and probably doesn't hold out. If he doesn't hold out, he doesn't get guaranteed money and maybe Blount becomes a part of a timeshare, a spectacular smash-and-dash backfield. If that happens, Johnson doesn't get drafted in the first round of just about every fantasy football league in the world and somewhere, in some parallel universe, Blount has six or seven touchdowns and the Titans have the most feared running game in the NFL.

But enough with hypotheticals, let's have some facts. Johnson has failed to rush for more than 53 yards in six of seven games. He has cross the goal line only once. He has looked tepid and unable to make use of his speed. I saw one stat that said something to the effect of “Johnson hasn't had a run of 20 yards or longer in 18 games”. To that I say, this is the NFL, not college. Running backs shouldn't have runs longer than 20 yards.

Needless to say, Johnson has underperformed. He may go down as the biggest draft bust in the history of football. Javon Ringer will continue to cut into his carries. That's guaranteed as the Titans are auditioning him for a trade since they won't be able to pay him when his contract expires in 2013. So why the blind faith? More facts:

Offensive Line

There are only two quarterbacks that have been sacked fewer times than Matt Hasselbeck: Ryan Fitzpatrick (5) and Jason Campbell (3). That says that the offensive line is doing their job. Only allowing ten sacks in seven games is impressive. You can spin it however you want to, but given that the seven teams they've played average 18.4 sacks on the season, there's no denying that the protection is there.

Pass protection is different than run blocking, but not so different that there would be glaring inconsistencies in the run game. It's a matter of execution. The coaching staff believes in Johnson. I have to believe that what they've seen on tape and what they've been working on in practice mirrors what fans have been frustrated with. They will fix it.

Capable Quarterback

A quarterback that can stay upright is a quarterback that will succeed. If the offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, the passing game will be effective. The loss of Kenny Britt for the year really hurts but Hasselbeck is playing exceptionally well without him. Defenses have to respect that. It will open up holes for Johnson, as well as get him involved in passing situations. Don't be surprised to see his receptions continue to increase as the weekly game plan matures.

Strength Of Schedule

This is where the stats really get skewed. With games against Carolina, New Orleans, Buffalo and Indianapolis left on the schedule, all of whom have allowed more than 120 yards per game, Johnson should find plenty of room in the defense. The problem is winning. The Titans will be underdogs in all of those contests with the exception of Indianapolis. It's safe to say that if any game gets out of control, the Titans may abandon the run altogether. But I'm holding firm in my pick of them stealing a wild card. They will win three of those games and they'll do it by controlling the clock.

I don't own Johnson. I wasn't in a position to draft him and I'm happy about that. But I'm doing everything I can to make a fair trade happen. Chastise him all you want. I still believe. He has too much big play ability to be cast aside and allowed to rot on benches. Is he the biggest bust of all time? Not yet. With nine games left, it's too early to make those type of a allegations. Don't stop believing; keep him in your lineup.

Defensive Considerations

At this point in the season, the waiver wire has been plucked clean of all saviors. Especially when it comes to defense. If you're like me, you didn't draft a defense until the last two rounds and planned on using the wire to play match-ups. Options are now slim. But they're are a few unlikely teams that could make the difference between a win and a loss.

Buffalo Bills (53% owned)

Every week I watch the highlights and every week I wish I would have started the Bills. With 14 interceptions, 4 fumbles and 3 touchdowns, they have been one of the most surprising defenses of the year. This week they host the Jets. The Jets rank 11th in points per game and 13th in total points but 29th in yards per game. Which suggests that most of their scoring opportunities have been the result of turnovers and penalties. The Bills have the second fewest penalties (defensively) and have a turnover ratio of +9, which ranks third. I love a big divisional showdown so this week may not be the best time to start them, but they still have two games against the Dolphins and one against the Broncos. Best stash them now.

Kansas City (27% owned)

The Chiefs are playing the best football they've played all year. After holding the Raiders scoreless two weeks ago and beating the Chargers in overtime last week, putting themselves into a three-way tie, they will be inspired. They host the Miami Dolphins, who rank 29th in points. What's not to love?. Brandon Flowers is playing outstanding and should have no problem covering Brandon Marshall. Matt Moore looks okay but is still inconsistent and will most certainly turn the ball over. The Chiefs are in great position to move into first place with San Diego facing Green Bay. Play them this week.

St. Louis Rams (4% owned)

Done laughing? Here's another divisional match-up. The Rams will travel to Arizona. There can be no winner of this game as neither team will make the playoffs and the loser is better suited in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes. But after the way the Rams played against the Saints and the possibility of Kevin Kolb missing the game, St. Louis could benefit from turnovers and sacks.

Must Start of the Week

Remember when Mike Williams had almost 1,000 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns? Of course you do. It's why you drafted him this year and probably earlier than you should have. This week, you have to start him, regardless of how disappointing he's been. New Orleans has given up 13 touchdowns to receivers. With Tampa Bay coming off of bye, this game should be a shootout and I expect Williams to be a big part of it.

A Guarantee?

I don't make promises. Especially when it comes to predicting the future. Rashard Mendenhall has been almost as disappointing and equally as frustrating as Chris Johnson. I won't blame anyone for benching him against the Baltimore Ravens who are third in the league against the rush. But I urge you to start him. It won't be a pretty game. It won't be high scoring. Mendenhall won't have a lot of yards. But he will find the endzone. Not once, but twice. I won't guarantee it. Doing so would compromise my integrity as a realist. Regardless, have some faith in your first-round draft pick. Keep him in your lineup.

I Dare You

The waiver wire is thin. Injuries are not. Deep below the surface of name-brand players, there are guys that are waiting for a chance. One of them is D.J. Ware. If Ahmad Bradshaw can't stay healthy and Brandon Jacobs can't stay productive, Ware will get his chances. He's a six-foot, 220-pound bruiser that has goal line potential written all over him. It's a long shot, but keep an eye on his carries.

Journey Haiku

Don't stop believing.
Johnson will get one-thousand.
Have faith in Rashard.



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