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Playoff Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

Contributed by: Jared Dang
Last Updated: Nov 04, 2011 7:14 PM

Theres plenty of fantasy advice for the peons on the verge of the fantasy playoffs, but for those who have managed their way to the upper eschelon of their leagues, theres not much to look forward to other than the playoffs. Congratulations if youre one of the lucky few, but keep in mind nobody remembers the guy with the best regular season record.

There's plenty of fantasy advice for the peons on the verge of the fantasy playoffs, but for those who have managed their way to the upper eschelon of their leagues, there's not much to look forward to other than the playoffs. Congratulations if you're one of the lucky few, but keep in mind nobody remembers the guy with the best regular season record. Every year there are plenty of fantasy owners perfectly content with sitting back and watching their seemingly unbeatable lineups take them into the playoffs only to watch their studs run into top-ranked defenses and oust them in the first round. Jamaal Charles owners certainly remember his magical four point performance against San Diego in week 13 last season.  

When it comes to the fantasy playoffs most leagues are one and done and it can't be emphasized enough how important strength of schedule is at this time.

Most owners are too busy worrying about weekly strategy and are focused on this week's win, but if you're in a comfortable position, and it doesn't have to be 1st or 2nd place, it would be wise to consider trading for players with favorable playoff schedules, even if it doesn't help you now. 

Humans by nature are risk-averse which might be a smart strategy when it comes to managing a 401k, but when it comes to fantasy football being risk averse is a terrible quality. With trade deadlines coming up, the clock is ticking and there's only a few weeks before you can trade away players that will likely kill your playoff dreams. I'm talking to you, Beanie Wells owners. 

As far as predicting strength of schedule is concerned eight weeks is not a great sample size, but it does give a rather accurate estimation of how the defenses will stack up at end up at the end of the season. It is significantly better than say week five, when many fantasy experts begin to incorporate SOS.

Keep in mind this is not a ranking of the top fantasy running backs, this is merely a ranking of run schedules and it just so happens that many of the top running backs this year have easier playoff schedules. 

Very Easy Schedules

(Defense rank is based off rush yards allowed per game and overall RB rankings are based off weeks 14-16.  I understand these weeks may or may not match up with your league's playoff schedule. If that's the case, please forgive me. It's what Jesus would do.)

1. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 31 18 26
Analysis: The Colts are one of the two worst run defenses by a significant margin (the worst is St. Louis) and Cleveland's defense has been bad against the run for a long time. San Diego is a better run defense than they have shown so far, but for some running backs with pass-catching capabilities, strength of schedule doesn't apply. Rice is one of those players.

2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 30 24 21
Analysis: An average running back with this type of schedule can be expected to produce quality stats. Give Peterson this schedule and he could single-handedly win fantasy leagues. Okay maybe not single-handedly, but nobody wants to face the guy with Peterson on his roster.

3. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 29 14 24
Analysis: Last year, Turner gored Carolina in week 14 for 118 yards and 3 TDs. This year Carolina still has a bad run defense and Turner put up 139 rushing yards and 2 TDs against them in week 7. If this was horse racing, Turner would be considered a "sure thing" for week 14. His next opponents, Jacksonville and New Orleans, aren't scaring anybody either. However, keep an eye on Turner's production in the second half of the season because near the end of the 2010 season, "The Burner" flamed out. Turner is currently on pace for another 331 touches this year. 

4. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 24 31 14
Analysis: Assuming he is the starting running back at the end of the season, no other running back has easier week 14-15 match-ups. Whether Johnson will be able to perform against these easy match-ups is another question.

5. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders 

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 10 30 22
Analysis: Aaron Rodgers throws so many early touchdowns opponents to play catch up early on, which could force the Raiders to abandon McFadden and the run game. Then again, predicting how specific games will play out is highly speculative (and not trustworthy), but it is a fact that no team has had fewer rushing plays called against them than the Green Bay Packers which probably explains why their run defense, which allows 4.6 yards per carry, is ranked so high. McFadden could easily have great game against the Packers and the with the Lions and Chiefs in week 16, watch out.

Favorable Schedules

6. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 2 29 31
Analysis: The Bengals ranked 19th in run defense in 2010 and I've tried to find evidence which would show that the Bengals run defense has over-performed this year, but I haven't been able to find any. They've held Frank Gore, Fred Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew under 90 rushing yards, and have only allowed one 100-yard day on the season. Foster's week 15 and 16 matchups are incredibly easy, but Cincinnati is a tougher matchup than you might think. 

7. James Starks, Green Bay Packers

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 16 22 12
Analysis: Odds are Starks will continue sharing the rock with Ryan Grant, but even with Grant taking carries away Starks would still be a low-end #2 RB in weeks 14 and 15 against an Oakland defense that is worse than their current ranking suggests, and a below average Kansas City defense.

8. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 23 7 27
Analysis: It's no surprise the Tampa Bay defense is ranked so low, but it is interesting to see Tennessee's ranked in the bottom half of the league. And it's all because of Arian Foster and Ben Tate (and the Houston offensive line, can't forget them).  If their game against Houston is tossed out, Tennessee is averaging 93.33 yards per game against the run. Nevertheless, Jones-Drew ran for 97 yards and scored a touchdown against the Titans in week 1.

9. Shonn Greene, New York Jets

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 22 19 28
Analysis: Greene is finally beginning to run well (which would be considered average by any other running back's standards) and if the Eagles and Giants run defenses keep up their current rankings, then he could end up having one of the easiest run schedules. Then again, the Eagles and the Giants probably will be better than what they are ranked by the end of the season. Poor Shonn Greene. Actually not really, F*** Shonn Greene, he should have started playing better eight weeks ago.

10. Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 28 23 19
Analysis:  The Giants will not end the season ranked in the bottom five run defenses, especially with the return of Justin Tuck, yet it's impossible to ignore the impact that the rest of the injuries have had on the Giants defense. The Buccaneers will likely continue to be a below-average defense and more on the Eagles D below:

11. Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 19 20 9
Analysis: Philadelphia's run defense has been worse than their current run ranking suggests. Just two weeks ago, they were dead last in total rushing yards given up to opposing running backs. Perhaps the run defense is the result all the new defensive pieces taking time to get to know one another, but that is not a good excuse. This defense has stepped it up as of late, allowing only 104 rushing yards their past two games. However, if their defense regresses back to it's shape and form from two weeks ago, then whoever starts for Miami could have a nice week 14+15 schedule. It's already known the Bills won't stop the run.

12. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 26 1 32
Analysis: The Browns run defense is allowing only four yards a carry, but because the Browns play from behind so often opposing running backs rack up tons of garbage-time fantasy points. Keep in mind that Mendenhall has underperformed against weak matchups multiple times this season. If Mendenhall owners can make it past his week 15 matchup against a 49ers defense that has not allowed one touchdown all year to opposing running backs, then they will reap the rewards against a soft-as-pudding Rams defense.

13. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 20 3 30
Analysis: Two out of Mathews' three playoff match-ups are quite favorable, but that middle one is quite scary.

14. Who knows, New England Patriots
 
Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 21 17 13
Analysis: As long as there are multiple running backs on the New England Patriots, none of them will be solid fantasy starts. Nevertheless, Washington and Denver are both below average run defenses. Yes, that's Stevan Ridley's picture, a nice reminder that fantasy owners can't trust Belicheck when it comes to running backs.

Average Schedules

15. Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 18 13 17
Analysis: Not that you're worrying about match-ups with Jackson, but it is nice to know his schedule is not too difficult. 

16. LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 14 4 29
Analysis: Another running back with a tough defense sandwiched between two easier defenses, although it is a little bit of a stretch to call the Jacksonville defense "easy". Which Jacksonville defense will show up in week 14? The one that held Ray Rice to 28 yards rushing in week 7 or the one that was gashed by Arian Foster and Ben Tate for 154 yards in week 8?

17. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 6 32 15
Analysis: If you're playoffs start week 15, then Benson's schedule is much more nicer. However if you start in week 14, benching Benson would be a wise decision.

18. Jahvid Best, Detriot Lions

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 5 16 18
Analysis: See Fred Jackson and multiply expected production by 0.6. That is what you can expect out of Best, assuming he is healthy. 

19. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 13 25 4
Analysis: See Fred Jackson and Jahvid Best... On an unrelated note, is there a running back more fun to watch than McCoy?

20. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 17 11 10
Analysis: See Fred Jackson, Jahvid Best and Lesean McCoy. On a kind-of related note, if Forte is still unhappy with his contract, wouldn't it make sense for him to begin holding out right now? His value couldn't be any higher and if Bears are going to place the franchise on him at the end of the season no matter what, then wouldn't a holdout force the Bears management to get a deal done before Forte's absence hurts Chicago's playoff aspirations?

Unfavorable Schedules

21. Jackie Battle, Kansas City Chiefs

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 25 10 16
Analysis: The Jets defense is not as bad as their current ranking would suggest and Battle likely won't be running much after Aaron Rodgers throws for his 4th touchdown near the end of the 1st half in week 15.

22. Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 12 9 20
Analysis: The Bears run defense is not as great as in years' past but they are good enough to stop the weak Denver run game and whoever is running, whether it be McGahee or Knowshon Moreno. In fact, with Tim Tebow at QB it's unlikely a Denver running back will have success against any quality run defenses.

23. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 32 12 1
Analysis: Anybody can run on St. Louis, which is why Lynch should have a successful week 14. Just don't expect anything against the Bears or 49ers.

24. Who knows, Washington Redskins

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 9 28 5
Analysis: That's a picture of Ryan Torain, just to haunt you. The Patriots have had the second fewest run plays called against them and their opponents have been busy playing catch up in nearly every game, yet their defense has allowed the 11th most points to running backs. Fact of the Week: The Patriots have given up 483 yards through the air to opposing running backs which is 78 yards more than any other team in the league (Fact of the Week is brought to you by FFChamps Team Defense Stats Allowed Tool)

25. Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 4 21 25
Analysis: Before LeSean McCoy ran all over Dallas, they were the #1 ranked run defense which means two things: 1. The Dallas' run defense is pretty good. 2. Rob Ryan really needs to shut up.

26. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 15 8 11
Analysis: Close your eyes and see if you can correctly rank these defenses by yards allowed per carry. Or, just look at the answer below, I really don't care.
1. Seattle- 3.2 yards per carry.
2. Arizona 3.8 yards per carry.
3. Pittsburgh 4.4 yards per carry.
Seattle and Arizona's run defenses are really that good, which is bad news for Gore owners who were under the impression his playoff schedule was easy. It's not. 

Toughest Schedules

27. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 8 15 3
Analysis:  Remember when the Steelers were ranked almost dead last in rushing defense after week four and how many fantasy "experts" said that their defense couldn't stop the run? Yeah, that's changed. The fact is four weeks is too small of a sample size to accurately determine the quality of any defense (or team for that matter). The Cleveland 2011 run game is missing a few key parts from last year's run blocking monster and Hillis owners will be disappointed come playoff time (if any of them even make the playoffs).

28. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 11 2 8
Analysis: After four straight weeks of double digit fantasy points it might be time to sell on Jackson if you can, his playoff schedule is brutal.

29. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 3 27 6
Analysis: Do everything in your power to avoid all Colts running backs come playoff time. In fact, why not get a head start and avoid them now?

30. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 27 5 7
Analysis: Ingram certainly hasn't lived up to expectations and he will likely continue to disappoint during the playoffs as well. Blame Darren Sproles for being such a perfect fit in the Saints offense. 

31. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 7 6 23
Analysis: Not that you were playing Williams, or the Daily Show anyway, but they face two top-10 run defenses weeks 14 and 15.

32. Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Week  14 15 16
Opponent
Defense rank 1 26 2
Analysis: It doesn't matter how easy Cleveland's defense is, San Francisco and Cincinnati are not to be played with.

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