The Bengals go back on the road where they’ve been surprisingly effective (4-1) after losing at home to the Steelers.  The game against the Steelers was a litmus test of sorts to see if the Bengals are indeed one of the true contenders; Big Ben and the Steelers showed them they aren’t quite ready for primetime.  The Ravens come back home after laying an egg on the road in Seattle, and they have to be glad to be back in Baltimore where they’re 4-0 and have often looked unstoppable.  Something’s gotta give here, and it will probably be the upstart Bengals who are still learning how to be a contending team.

One thing that has been pretty static for the Ravens no matter if they’re at home or away is the performance of quarterback Joe Flacco.  Flacco has had four 300 yard performances, with two of them happening at home and two away; and his QB rating is almost identical (75.2 vs. 75.8) at home as it is away.  Flacco does tend to throw more yards (1278 vs. 1028) and TDs (7 vs. 3) while on the road, which means the Ravens find the most success when their defense keeps the other team down so they can rely more on the running of Ray Rice than on the passing game.

The Bengals have used a fairly similar formula for their success as the Ravens, using a tough defense to limit their opponent’s scoring, timely and efficient quarterback play, and a running game capable of chewing up the clock.  Andy Dalton has been a revelation at QB, and if it weren’t for a certain Carolina Panther QB would probably be the leader in the race for rookie of the year.  Dalton has not just been asked to manage games like Alex Smith, as he’s thrown 14 touchdowns on the year, tied with Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, and Mark Sanchez for 10^th place.  Not too shabby for a rook.  Curiously, Dalton has been more efficient on the road (93.3 vs. 69.7), so he should be able to keep the Bengals in this game.  Unfortunately for Dalton, he will probably be without favorite target AJ Green, who is likely to be out with a hyper-extended knee.

In the end, this game probably will come down to a defense making a play, and no team is better at doing that at home than the Ravens are.  Dalton should be efficient enough to keep up with Flacco, but the different in this game will probably be the running of Ray Rice (which the coma-inducing Cedric Benson can’t hope to match), as well as a timely turnover that gets a quick score for the opportunistic Ravens.

Good Start: RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, TE Ed Dickson

Middle of the Road: QB Joe Flacco, QB Andy Dalton, TE Jermaine Gresham

Bad Start:  WR Torrey Smith, TE Dennis Pitta, RB Cedric Benson, WR Jerome Simpson
  To think, just last year these two were playing for the NFC West Championship in Week 17 to see which one would be the worst playoff team in league history.  Now, they quite well could be playing for the distinction of which team is the worst team in the NFC West; what a long fall for these two teams.  Actually, I take that back… going from 7-9 to where ever the elevator ride to hell is going isn’t a very long fall at all.  Needless to say, both these teams need a lot of help to be back in contention next year.

For what it’s worth, the Seahawks actually have shown signs of life the last couple of weeks, putting together a very good running attack, something they’ve lacked since right before they gave Shaun Alexander his big payday back in 2006 (the Titans should have been paying attention to that result when dealing with Chris Johnson).  Marshawn Lynch has gained over 130 total yards in three of the last four games and has scored in five straight games; and it wasn’t like he was playing terrible teams either while on that scoring streak, getting a TD and/or good yardage against the Ravens, Cowboys, Bengals, Giants, and Falcons.  Now he draws one of the worst defenses in the league, which if Seattle sticks to their recent run-first mentality, should be able to take full advantage of.

The Rams on the other hand, haven’t shown a lot of life on offense and Sam Bradford continues to look like he’s regressed badly since his promising rookie year.  In fact, Bradford has only thrown an anemic four touchdowns in the seven games he’s played this year; by contrast, Aaron Rodgers has thrown four touchdowns in a single game in three games this year already.  Not to say Bradford can’t rebound; he has two games against the Seahawks, and one more against the Cardinals… but then again, he does face the 49ers twice, plus the Bengals and Steelers, so maybe the pain continues the rest of the year.  But if Bradford is to have one moment of clarity, it probably will come at the expense of a Seahawks secondary that has been decimated by injuries and wasn’t very good to begin with.

If the Rams are to have any chance in this game, they will have to get Steven Jackson going in this game, as they’ve been competitive in the past three weeks due in no small part to the hard running of Jackson, who’s just about put the offense on his back to keep them in games.  Bradford will also have to get the ball to Brandon Lloyd early and often to back the defense off from going with eight man fronts. 

For the Seahawks, they’ll probably take a similar approach by letting Lynch run as much as possible, while letting Tavaris Jackson make a few plays here and there.  The Seahawks have the sign of a team who’s arrow is pointing up, so this would be a good week to start your more reliable Seahawks and expect better than average stats.

Good Start:  RB Steven Jackson, WR Brandon Lloyd, QB Tavaris Jackson, RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Sidney Rice (if he plays)

Middle of the Road:  QB Sam Bradford, WR Doug Baldwin (if he plays)

Bad Start:  WR Brandon Gibson, WR Austin Pettis, WR Mike Williams, TE Zach Miller
  Who woulda thought that John Skelton would take over for the injured Kevin Kolb and a couple of short weeks and wins later fans are clamoring for a QB controversy?  With Kolb at the helm, the Cards were 1-6 and DOA; with Skelton they’re still DOA because the Cards aren’t going to run the table, but at least they’re actually more fun to watch than paint dry.  Privately you have to wonder if the Cardinals brass are wondering if the trade was worthwhile, as maybe all Skelton needed was a little more seasoning.  That’s all fine and dandy, but the truth of the matter is the Cardinals have played against one of the only teams that might be worse than them (the Rams) then they took on an Eagles team that specializes in imploding in on itself at the worst times.  If the Cards can somehow pull an upset against the 49ers on the road, then we can start anointing Skelton as the second coming of the Tebow.

What’s amazing in all this is if the 49ers win, they very well could lock this division up by Thanksgiving; of course in reality they pretty much had this division locked up on Halloween with the state of the other sorry teams in the NFC West. In fact, the 49ers have a real shot at going 15-1 this year, which is amazing considering the state this team was in at the end of the year last year.  Remember what Vizzini said to Fezzik in Princess Bride?  “And YOU!  Friendless, brainless, helpless, hopeless!”  That pretty much described the 49ers with Mad Mike Singletary at the helm.  Now, with essentially the same personnel, Jim Harbaugh’s squad has a real shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The thing that may derail the 49ers plans are injury, and some nagging ones are starting to show up on Frank Gore, as usual.  Gore suffered a bruised knee against the Giants, and since backup Kendall Hunter has shown to be more than capable, Gore may end up being rested, much to his fantasy owners’ chagrin.  If that’s the case, Hunter will be a very good play this week, and might be a good play regardless because if the 49ers get up big and Gore’s in the game, they may choose to rest him the rest of the day.  Play Gore at your own risk.

The best thing to come with Skelton at the helm of the Cardinals passing game is that he’s rediscovered Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitz was stuck around 4 or 5 catches a game and 50-70 yards in most games with Kolb with only two TDs all year; in two games with Skelton, Fitz had his highest yardage total in a game and has caught three TDs.  If there are any people who hope Skelton stays the QB for the Cardinals, it’s the Fitzgerald fantasy owners.  In the same space of time, Beanie Wells has returned to being well… Beanie Wells.  Since he injured his knee Wells has been pretty much unplayable after being unbenchable for most of the first half of the season.  Until he shows up healthy expect subpar 40-50 yard games from Wells… and that’s best case scenario.

Good Start:  WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Michael Crabtree

Middle of the Road:  QB  John Skelton, WR Andre Roberts, QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore (if he plays), RB Kendall Hunter (if Gore plays, if he doesn’t he’s a good start), TE Vernon Davis

Bad Start:  RB Beanie Wells, WR Early Doucet, WR Braylon Edwards
  This game features two of the best RBs from the past couple of seasons, but has lost its luster a little bit since Chris Johnson has been mostly unwatchable this season.  Before last week’s breakout performance against the Buccaneers, I was getting ready to market my CJ0K action figure… it was set up so that when you so much as touched it, it dropped to the ground and curled up into the fetal position.  So much for that idea… thanks CJ.  Still, I’m not entirely convinced about Johnson’s renaissance; it was against the Bucs after all, which sports the worst defense against the rush in the league this year.  Still, at least he didn’t fold up like an origami crane at the first sign of contact, which was encouraging to see.  He’ll see a lot of that contact against the Falcons, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds.

For the Falcons, they took the Saints down to the wire last week, tied the game up in a frenetic 4^th quarter drive and took the game to overtime.  Of course, they inexplicably gave the game away by going for a 4^th and 1 from their own 29 yard line.  Yes that’s right… their own 29 yard line.  That’s the football equivalent to finally landing the digits for the hottest chick in the club then handing them over to your wingman and say “no way man… you hit that, I’m good”.  Ok, it’s not quite like that… afterall, you might do that if you owe one to your buddy.  The Falcons don’t owe anything to arch rival New Orleans; but they might have handed the keys to the division to them with that one bone-headed play.

This game should be a little more straight forward for the Falcons, who play very well at home and should be just too strong in all facets of the game for the Titans.  Tennessee just hasn’t been that good this year, even though Matt Hasselbeck has been great for them, getting the most out of a bunch of receivers that haven’t scared anyone since the buckling of Kenny Britt’s knee.  He’s helped them win more games than anyone would have expected without having the usual CJ performances to rely on; can you imagine what they might be if CJ actually had been playing like he hadn’t been paid yet early on in the season?

This game will most likely feature heavy doses of Michael Turner and Chris Johnson, until one team or the other falls behind.  Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck both will throw for enough yards and TDs to make for a good bye week replacement start for those without Brees, Roethlisberger, or Schaub this week.  This game will likely come down to which team can establish a consistent running game first and make a play or two on defense, and for that I like the Falcons at home.

Good Start:  QB Matt Ryan, QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Michael Turner, RB Chris Johnson, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez

Middle of the Road:  WR Damian Williams, WR Nate Washington, WR Harry Douglas

Bad Start:  TE Jared Cook, RB Javon Ringer, RB Jacquizz Rodgers
 
  Both teams were thoroughly drubbed in Week 10; the Panthers by the Titans and the Lions by the Bears.
 
It had to happen eventually, right? A bad day for Cam Newton? Actually he’s had a couple of clunkers this season, but this one was the worst. He had only 212 yards passing and an interception, and he failed to score a rushing TD (he had 55 yards on the ground). And you’ll have to forgive the pun but I can’t resist – Newton will, literally, be heading into a Lion’s den this week, facing an angry defense that was humiliated in Chicago. Would you like to face a pissed-off Ndamukong Suh? Me neither. The Panther running game isn’t worth talking about and it doesn’t look like a good week for Steve Smith, either.
 
This could be the week that the Detroit running game wakes up – it won’t have a better chance the rest of the season. All Carolina has done is allow 138 YPG and 12 TDs. Even Chris Johnson woke up against them. The only mystery will be whether Maurice Morris will continue to get the bulk of the work or he will cede carries to Kevin Smith and Keiland Williams. Based on the last couple of weeks’ worth of evidence, Morris looks to be the guy. He has carried the ball 32 times the last three games, compared to 21 for Williams and 4 for Smith. However, last week was Smith’s first action of the season. It’s hard to say whether or not he will see the rock more. For this week, if you’re hurting for a No. 2 running back, roll with Morris. He’s probably a lot better choice than a lot of the flotsam and jetsam available on the waiver wire this time of season.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Maurice Morris, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Brandon Pettigrew
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS:QB Cam Newton, RB Keiland Williams, WR Steve Smith
 
BAD STARTS: RB Jonathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo Williams
 
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
If you watch this game, you’re likely watching it only because you are a die-hard Jaguar or Brown fan. You have my congratulations/condolences. From a Fantasy perspective, unless you’re in a very deep league there will probably be only one player of interest, and that is Maurice Jones-Drew.
 
Really, there’s no need to waste much time on this one. Both offenses are stagnant at best, and this could quite conceivably be a 6-3 or 9-6 game. You’ll run MJD because the Browns are horrible against the run and, well, he’s MJD. If you’re even thinking about starting anyone else then you are past the point of desperation.
 
GOOD STARTS: RB Maurice Jones-Drew
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: None
 
BAD STARTS: Everybody else
  The Raiders were extremely impressive in a win over the Chargers while the Vikings were anything but in being thrashed by Green Bay.
 
Name a facet of the game and Oakland was fantastic on the road against San Diego. Carson Palmer (299 yards, 2 TDs) – great. Michael Bush (157 yds., 1 TD/3 rec., 85 yards) – great. This particularly pains me because I’m one of the dumbasses who drafted Darren McFadden and didn’t make sure to pick up Bush as well. If I get the chance to draft McFadden next season I will, but I will not make the same mistake with Bush. Never again. Denarius Moore (123 yds., 2 TDs) – great. Plus he made one of the best catches of the season. Jacoby Ford was still in a walking boot on Monday, so that means Moore will probably get a lot of run this week as well. If last Thursday was any indication, the chemistry between Palmer and Moore has evolved rapidly.
 
The Vikings simply need to take the Green Bay tape and burn it. While there’s every chance Minnesota will come out aroused at home against the Raiders, Adrian Peterson remains the only trustworthy Viking with the possible exception of Percy Harvin. It’s funny that we haven’t heard basically anything about his migraines this season.
 
The Raiders are susceptible to both the run (132 YPG, 9 TDs allowed) and the pass (246 YPG, 16 TDs allowed), so Peterson is an obvious must-start and Christian Ponder could be worth consideration if you’re in a deep league or you have bye week QB problems. Minnesota has been a sieve against the pass (273 YPG, 18 TDs) and Antonio Winfield will miss yet another game due to injury. Palmer should have a field day. Bush can’t be expected to repeat his Week 10 performance but he’s attained must-start status no matter the opposition. McFadden has shed the walking boot but as of this writing he still hadn’t practiced.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Carson Palmer, RB Adrian Peterson, RB Michael Bush, WR Denarius Moore
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: QB Christian Ponder, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Percy Harvin
 
BAD STARTS: Ponder might have a decent day but it’s hard to recommend any other Viking receiver.
  Buffalo was absolutely destroyed by Dallas while the Dolphins gutted out a tough one over the Redskins.
 
Like Minnesota in regard to their “showing” against Green Bay, Buffalo needs to dispose of the Dallas game tape if it hasn’t already. Their performance does not warrant any discussion. But while Ryan Fitzpatrick has fallen out of favor with a lot of Fantasy owners, he has a great matchup this week. You could probably do much, much worse. Fred Jackson is still money, and if Steve Johnson can’t go (his status was up in the air at mid-week) David Nelson could be a strong sleeper.
 
The Dolphins continue to play extremely hard even though their playoff hopes disappeared weeks and weeks ago. It’s only logical, then, that they’ll be up even more for a divisional opponent. Matt Moore (209 yds., 0 TDs, 1 INT) crashed back to earth after his previous-week performance against the Chiefs, but Brandon Marshall still managed to come up only two yards shy of a 100-yard game. Reggie Bush continues to be one of the biggest Fantasy surprises of the second half of the season. In his last three games, Bush has nearly 250 yards rushing and 3 TDs.
 
This could be a big rebound week for the Buffalo offense, no matter how hard Miami plays. The Dolphins still have a bad pass defense, having allowed 256 YPG and 14 TDs through the air. Jackson could find the going a little tougher than usual, seeing how Miami has given up only 3 TDs on the ground this season. They do, however, allow an average of 105 YPG. Moore can’t be trusted, but Bush has a hot hand and Marshall has been strong his last couple of games. Buffalo gives up 261 YPG through the air and has allowed 14 passing TDs. On the ground, the Bills allow 125 YPG and have given up 11 TDs.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Fred Jackson, RB Reggie Bush, WR Brandon Marshall
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: WR David Nelson
 
BAD STARTS: RB Daniel Thomas – he could very well prove me wrong and shine, but it looks like Bush has clearly overtaken him in the Miami pecking order, even though it appears the rookie is completely healthy.

The Cowboys demolished Buffalo, 44-7, while the Redskins’ slide continued with a 20-9 loss to the Dolphins.
 
Tony Romo had the most efficient passing day in Cowboy history, completing 23 of 26 passes for 270 yards and 3 TDs. DeMarco Murray was once again a stud, rushing for 135 yards and a TD, and adding 6 catches for 36 yards. Dez Bryant had 74 yards and a TD receiving, but he was one-upped by Laurent Robinson’s 73 yards and 2 TDs. All around, it was an incredibly effective performance by the Cowboy offense.
 
The Redskins, on the other hand… not so much. Futility was the theme of the day, as Mike Shanahan’s decision to go back to Rex Grossman didn’t exactly work out. He threw for 215 yards and no TDs and also threw two picks. It didn’t matter who toted the rock in the run game, as both Roy Helu and Ryan Torain were stymied, rushing for only 61 yards on 17 carries combined. This is how the day went for Washington; Leonard Hankerson broke out with 8 catches for 106 yards, and then tore his labrum and is out for the season. Heading into Week 11, Jabar Gaffney and Fred Davis are the only Redskin receivers worth even the slightest Fantasy consideration – and that’s not a whole lot.
 
About the only even remotely negative thing you can say about last week’s game is that Dallas continued its disturbing trend of being susceptible to the run. In their last three games, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 179 YPG and 3 TDs. The Redskins more than likely will attempt to exploit this weakness and give heavy doses of not only Torain and Helu, but Tashard Choice as well. Choice was a Cowboy as recently as three weeks ago, so you know he’s going to be incredibly fired up. Shanahan’s just the kind of guy to take this into consideration when it comes to doling out playing time. After all, what does he really have to lose? This makes the Washington run game even more of a crapshoot from a Fantasy perspective – we have absolutely no clue as to who is going to get what kind of action. If I had to make a choice, I’d go with Choice – pun intended – but I’d rather look elsewhere for my RB needs this week.
 
Washington has slid into irrelevance, but its pass defense remains stout. The Redskins give up only 217 YPG through the air and their total of 8 passing TDs allowed is second fewest in the league. However, their run defense has been questionable at best, allowing 125 YPG and 4 TDs in four home games this season. Temper your expectations for Romo, Bryant, Robinson and Jason Witten, but Murray could post some strong numbers, whether or not Felix Jones returns.
 
GOOD STARTS: RB DeMarco Murray
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: QB Tony Romo, WR Dez Bryant, WR Laurent Robinson, TE Jason Witten (they may go off, but I’m siding with history and how the Redskin pass D has performed this season)
 
BAD STARTS: QB Rex Grossman, RB Ryan Torain, RB Roy Helu, RB Tashard Choice (I’m not saying they’ll all have bad numbers, but there’s far too much uncertainty to be able to recommend any of them)

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