Green Bay at Detroit

OK. In Week 11 the Packers beat Tampa Bay, 35-26, while the Lions beat Carolina, 49-35. So the offenses scored 84 points while the defenses gave up 54 (Carolina scored a TD on a kick-off return). The Vegas over/under is 56, and that sounds conservative. This one has 38-35 written all over it. Anything can happen, of course, but this has all the makings of a true Fantasy feast on Thanksgiving.
 
Other than that, there’s not much of a reason to waste too much time on this one. If you have a viable Lion or Packer you’re going to start him. The only bit of pre-game intrigue concerns Greg Jennings. He’s coming off his worst game in forever (2 receptions, 4 yards) and he suffered a knee bruise against Tampa Bay. Indications early in the week were that the injury wasn’t serious and he’d be good to go on Thursday. Make 100 percent sure, of course, but as of this writing Jennings looked safe to start.
 
As for the Lions, Kevin Smith made a huge statement (140 yds./2TDs rushing, 61 yds./1TD receiving) that he should be the no-brainer No. 1 running back in Detroit. The guy was on his couch three weeks ago. With Jahvid Best not expected to play, Smith should be the No. 1 waiver wire pickup this week. If you have a problem with your No. 2 RB slot, put Smith in and don’t give it a second thought. Even if he doesn’t have a lot of rushing yards, he’s enough of a presence in the passing game to warrant a start.
 
GOOD STARTS: Everybody
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: None
 
BAD STARTS: None 

Miami at Dallas

Both teams are on three-game winning streaks after the Dolphins absolutely thrashed the cratering Bills and the Cowboys took down Washington in OT, 27-24.
 
This Matt Moore guy is really trying to be somebody. The guy definitely garners some respect because he’s thrown 3 TDs in two of his last three games. But the one in between was a clunker against a real pass D in Washington, while the breakout games were against Buffalo and Kansas City. The Oregon Ducks would probably put up three bills against those raggedy-ass units. But Moore was once a Cowboy so you know he’ll be pumped up. While his passing numbers shouldn’t match his outings against Buffalo and the Chiefs, they should be better than the ones he put up against the Redskins (209 yards, 0 TDs, 2 turnovers). Reggie Bush has proven that he is worthy of starting consideration after 4 TDs in his last three. He’s only had 79 yards on 29 carries combined the last two games, but he’s finding the end zone. That is gold this time of season. If he puts up 40 yards and a score, that’s a pretty good day. And he’ll likely do better than that. Brandon Marshall? What in the Wide, Wide World of Sports was that? One catch for 5 yards against Buffalo? Wow. Look for him to find some redemption against Dallas. And don’t sleep on TE Anthony Fasano. The guy has three receiving TDs in his last three games.
 
Tony Romo had a tough matchup against a pretty strong Washington pass defense, but he responded with 292 yards and 3 TDs, giving him 8 TDs in his last three. So yeah, you’re starting him unless your other QB is named Rodgers, Brees or Brady. DeMarco Murray found the going tough against the Redskins (25 carries, 73 yards, no TDs) and the Dolphins are stout against the run as well. He was probably hampered by the absence of his fullback, Tony Fiammetta, who was scratched because of an illness. You’re going to run Murray no matter what, but it would be nice to know that Fiammetta was going to be back. As of this writing, however, that was up in the air. As far as the receivers go, you’re starting Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Jason Witten, obviously.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray, RB Reggie Bush, WR Dez Bryant, WR Laurent Robinson, TE Jason Witten, TE Anthony Fasano.
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: QB Matt Moore, WR Brandon Marshall
 
BAD STARTS: RB Daniel Thomas – maybe we’ll see evidence to the contrary this week, but it looks like Bush is the Miami RB to run.

San Francisco at Baltimore

Is this the week one of the streaks finally ends? The 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD this season and have not given up a 100-yard rushing game in an astounding 31 weeks. This, friends, is historic stuff. This could be faulty information because I only halfway heard it and I couldn’t verify it, but at least it sounds plausible – what I think I heard, at least, was that the 49ers were the first team since 1940 to not allow a rushing TD through 10 games. If that’s true, that’s astounding. What I do know is that, in the history of the league, only three teams have allowed two rushing TDs in a season – and those marks occurred when seasons were only 14 games long. It is not a stretch to say that, at least through 10 games, this is a historically good run defense.
 
So this will put one of the cornerstone philosophies of Fantasy Football to the ultimate test – Start Your Studs. If you have Ray Rice – and I do in both of my leagues – merely plugging Rice into your lineup without thinking will not be easy. You’re going to start him unless you have incredible RB depth. I don’t, so I’m starting him. But my expectations will be extremely tempered.
 
As for everybody else involved, Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith look worth starting consideration, since Raven OC Cam Cameron stubbornly insists that Baltimore become a passing team. Actually, we may have seen a bit of a shift last week. Going into the Bengal game, Flacco had averaged 47 pass attempts a game. But against Cincinnati, he threw “only” 27 times – his fewest attempts this season. But San Francisco is so good against the run that Flacco will likely be heaving it quite a bit. The 49ers are actually mortal against the pass, giving up an average of 250 yards per game and 14 TDs.
 
Cedric Benson scored twice against a Baltimore run D that has been struggling a bit of late. Ray Lewis was out last week but there’s a chance he can go this week. That should give the Ravens a huge lift, so I’m downgrading Frank Gore a bit.
 
This is maybe the most intriguing of what is shaping up as three really, really good matchups on Turkey Day. So don’t eat so much that you get too drowsy to watch the nightcap.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Joe Flacco, WR Anquan Boldin, WR Torrey Smith, TE Vernon Davis
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, RB Ray Rice, WR Michael Crabtree
 
BAD STARTS: None really stand out – the passing games have a good chance at performing better than you may expect.

Follow Scott Boyter on Twitter: @FFChamps_Scott


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