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Contributed by:
Danny Fresh
Last Updated: Nov 30, 2011 8:20 PM |
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I hope you enjoyed my quick Thanksgiving editionof What We Learned. But that was the appetizer, now let’s devour the whole bird. As always, I look forward to your comments below. I’ll do my best to respond to them all. Feel free to ask me any line-up or trade questions throughout the week on Twitter @TheDannyFresh.
Some major storylines played out this week, and either you are planning for next season, fighting tooth and nail to make the play-offs, or preparing yourself for your post-season run. No matter where you are, I’ve got something for everyone this week. So shake off that long work day, do whatever it is you do to relax (trust me, I’m not judging you) and ease into the warm bath of goodness that is what we learned and what we think we learned from week twelve:
What we learned: The Harry Douglas revolution will be televised! Among the heavy firepower of the Atlanta offense is the once promising, but oft-injured Douglas – who is easily over-looked. I’m yelling: LOOK, LOOK! At this point of the season there are very few gems left to uncover. But, key match-ups just might help you squeak out that win that delivers the promise-land. And, Douglas is a nice match-up play the rest of the way.
Percy Harvin’s numbers are beyond misleading. As always, he’s hit or miss
Always start your QB against the Vikings. Always.
Always.
What we think we learned: Roddy White is back and should be considered an elite option the rest of the way. Roddy’s reclaiming of the throne and Harry Douglas’ development have put a serious damper on rookie Julio Jones prospects the rest of the way. He’s just as likely to go off as not. But, if you are counting on him to deliver, you will be on shaky ground. I’m not saying Mike Smith doesn’t make smart decisions in 4th down situations, but…oh, wait, yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying.
What we learned: As the season heads into the final games, we have fewer and fewer flukes. Teams have become what they are - teams like the Panthers. What do we know about the Panthers? Always start your RBs against them. Always. What do we know about the Colts? Always start your RBs against them. Always.
Always.
What we think we learned: If the Colts were going to win a game it was going to be this one. Unless Peyton Manning makes it back for the final game or so of the season, this Colts team will live in infamy.
What we learned: LeGarrette Blount arguments were all the rage in my dynasty league this week, as he was involved in what some owners felt was a controversial trade. There are certain boom-or-bust players that elicit this type of reaction from owners. Blount is a prime example. I’ve been saying since week 2 that Blount is the kind of guy who will look amazing when he’s rolling and utterly forgettable times he’s not. Sunday you saw the example of both Blounts in the same game. He hurdled and rumbled his way to 159 (including a far and away career best 56 yards receiving) total yards and yet only 11 fantasy points…because he also coughed up the ball twice. That brings the powerful back to a total of seven fumbles in his twenty career starts.
What we think we learned: Aqib Talib shut down Nate Washington all day. Talib is becoming the kind of corner that you have to factor in when setting your WRs for the week. For Washington it was another disappointing performance after his big game last week. No reason to think he’s a solid play down the stretch.
Want to see something amazing? Go take a look at the Titans D/ST scoring all the season long. Don’t worry, I’ll wait right here. You back? Great. It’s a feast or famine situation every week, alternating huge scores and awful ones, they destroy average to below average offenses and do quite poorly against above average offenses. Well next week they are at Buffalo. Do you feel lucky? Well do you, punk?
What we learned: It is amazing what Maurice Jones-Drew is doing this year. He plays on an offense without a single other playmaker, his QB is a rookie who got benched Sunday for the mighty Luke McCown and he still turns in a strong fantasy performance. Just like he does every week. He’s sort of the anti-LeGarrette Blount.
For those of you that picked up Mercedes Lewis after his “breakout” game last week, I strongly suggest dropping him like he dropped Blaine Gabbert’s passes on Sunday. Another game, another double-digit fantasy effort for the Texans D. They are as reliable as any squad in fantasy.
What we think we learned: I mentioned Joel Dreessen in Week 8’s column. He’s now got 4 TDs in 5 weeks, and rookie young QBs love their TE security blankets. If you’re desperate at the TE spot, he’s worth a grab. I can’t believe I’m about to type this but I feel bad for Matt Leinert. He was playing very well before breaking his collarbone and effectively ending his season. If you are an owner who has been holding on to Andre Johnson all season long through his injuries just to now see his value snap like Leinhart’s collarbone, you may now proceed in ramming your head onto your desk.
What we learned: John Skelton keeps overthrowing Fitzgerald. Do you know how hard it is to do? He is total Junksville. If the Rams draft doesn’t look like this, something is wrong: Round 1 – WR, Round 2 – 7, nothing but OLs and DBs something is wrong. If Blount is one guy we either love or hate, Beanie Wells is his kindred spirit.
The Answer: Devin Hester, DeSean Jackson and Patrick Peterson. The Question: To whom should you never kick the ball?
What we think we learned: I think the Rams season is going to play future dividends for a developing club. The problem is, for your fantasy needs thisseason, they don’t have much for you.
What we learned: There isn’t one thing I could write about this game that hasn’t been written, or spoken about, or shown…over and over and over. Stevie Johnson’s fantastic/moronic celebration lead to so much greater dissection of this game than is deserved. You know what I saw? I saw a couple of evenly matched, middle of the pack NFL squads playing an in-division game. A few guys over-performed, a few-guys under-performed. It was close late. Yup, sounds about right.
What we think we learned: We think we learned what we already knew. Oh, that’s deep.
What we learned: Did you know that this game featured the leading rookie WR in receptions? No, not AJ Green. It’s Greg Little. Both WRs had nice days. And, while Green is already an elite NFL star, Greg Little shows tremendous potential. CB Joe Haden was all over Green all day long, and he still pulled in 110 yards. The kid’s unreal.
What we think we learned:Have the Bengals risen up so much, that they actually were susceptible to a let-down game following last week’s battle with Baltimore? It would appear so. But, they still pulled out the win.
Cleveland: Put. That. Coffee. Down. Coffee’s for closers only! Andy Dalton: you go ahead and drink all the coffee you want.
What we learned: Redskins fans, this one’s for you. Roy Helu deserves some extra time here, so let’s give him his due. First, let’s start with the obvious: It is very rare that you get a shot to pick up this kind of an offensive weapon this late in the season. If Helu is still on your waivers go get him – like, right now.
On Sunday, Helu scored his first TD of his career. What happened on that one play tells you everything you need to know about the young man. After hurdling one defender, breaking the tackle of another and then out-running the rest on the way to the end zone, he didn’t dance, he didn’t wear an imaginary championship belt, he didn’t fake shoot himself in the leg. He acted like he had been there before – AND HE HADN’T.
The Redskins rookie has rolled with the punches all season long in Washington. The most recent missed haymaker was coach Mike Shanahan stating Helu wasn’t ready for a full load yet. Yeah, well, so much for that. He’s got poise, class and mad, mad skills.
What makes this even more impressive is that the book on the Seahawks is they are stout against the run. Helu ran all over them anyway. It’s Mike Shanahan - so, you never know for sure - but he HAS to make Helu the feature back moving forward. Doesn’t he?
Lost in Helu’s big day was the fact the Marshawn Lynch had another big day and is having the best string of games in his career. He also has a couple of tasty match-ups in front of him.
What we think we learned: While the Seahawks WRs injury-plagued season continued, rookie Doug Baldwin got another opportunity to show why he’s another member of this fantastic first-year class that will be contributing to fantasy squads for years to come.
What we learned: Chicago, I’m doing you a favor by not talking about you this week. The best thing that could happen to Bears fans is to stop paying them any mind. Either there is a painful back end of the season for this squad, or they fly quietly under the radar and backdoor into the playoffs. Either way…shhhh.
Want more proof that bonus points for 40yd field goals are silly these days? Look at the kicking stats from this game. The kickers are too good nowadays. It’s just silly. The Raiders are a better team when they get Marcel Reese involved. He’s versatile and plays with passion.
What we think we learned:Consider me one of the many beneficiaries of Michael Bush’s fantastic run as the Raiders starting HB while McFadden has been out. RunDMC figures to be back next week, but Bush’s success has likely earned him share of the carries going forward. He’s a fine flex play going forward and I could easily see him scoring 7-9 points/wk going forward.
If I asked you right now who the best WR on the Raiders is, you would list about 4 or 5 guys before getting the answer right. The most complete WR on that roster is Chaz Schilens. And, I don’t think it’s that close. His seemingly never-healing injuries and big play young guns have made him a forgotten man of late. But, I think you stick him in the raiders starting line-up all year and you get upside WR# results. Watch how the next game plays out in the Raiders WR core very carefully. There are a lot of moving parts right now, and Carson Palmer has yet to settle in on who he favors most.
The Raiders are sneakily primed to be the next team to join the SAKO club. For newer readers that have no idea what I’m talking about, the explanation is coming a little further down.
What we learned:I like Philly Cheesesteaks. A lot. Especially when watching football. However, the Subway commercial with Justin Tuck, Michael Strahan and Ndamukong Suh has to be in the running for Worst Performance by Athletes in a commercial EVER! “Get your head in the game, and try one, won’t you?”
A couple weeks ago I wrote an extended take on DeSean Jackson and the Eagles that ended like this:
“With Jackson's already sloppy play declining rapidly, and the much-hyped Eagles tumbling down the standings, there's a tempest brewing in Philadelphia. This. Will. End. Badly. You have been warned.”
Just two days later, Jackson was benched for Philly’s game against the Cardinals. If you want to read the entire take, you can do so here. You know what’s gone on since then. I know you want me to make sense of the Eagles, let you know if you should trust the emergence of Riley Cooper, or how to evaluate Jason Avant. The truth is, I just can’t. This team is in an explosive tailspin, where injuries, egos and a rabid fan base could change the course of this entire franchise on any given week. My advice: Unless you’ve got LeSean “Shady” McCoy do all you can to avoid counting on any Eagles players.
What we think we learned: Nnamdi Asamghua missed this week’s game with an injury. While I imagine his presence would have helped reduce the Patriots Passing Three-Ring Circus to the One-Ring variety, he doesn’t have the elite skills anymore to shut down opposing WRs. In his previous game against the Giants, he had to hold onto the larger Hakeem Nicks to prevent him from making plays (much like he did against Dez Bryant earlier in the season) and he’s getting burned by the shiftier speed guys like Victor Cruz.
What we learned: Here is everything you need to know about the 2011 Chargers: Against the Broncos, at home, up by three nearing the end of the first half, with the ball in their hands, San Diego just lets the clock run out so they can escape with the lead heading into half-time. Yup.
I mentioned this in my Week 9 column, you can absolutely ride the Willis McGahee pony…err…Bronco. It’s amazing that this once brash kid has quietly transformed into one of the most underrated backs in the league.
Von Miller is your defensive Rookie of the Year, and might just plain be the best rookie. He’s dominating games. And, while Tebow is getting the press, it’s Miller and the Broncos D winning these games for Denver. The sky is the limit for the rookie LB.
Did you know Eric Decker was tied for 4th in the NFL with 8 receiving TDs? The players he is tied with – Jimmy Graham, Greg Jennings and Wes Welker. I’m just sayin’….
What we think we learned:Even with the loss, Ryan Matthews’ performance on Sunday was the most important thing coming out of this game. His numbers were sparkling. But, more importantly, he appears healthy, and - while I’m not sure I agree - the Chargers clearly prefer him to Mike Tolbert as their feature back.
I don’t want to start any rumors, buuuuut…I think Philip Rivers has developed an addiction to pain pills…uhm, he’s preparing to come out with the truth about his affair with Herman Cain…he’s too exhausted from his PX90 workouts to have energy on Sundays? Pick any explanation. Because nothing makes any sense about what has happened to the Chargers. Abandon hope, all ye who enter here - Rivers already has. Just read his comment on this season: “It’s just snowballed out of control.” Yikes! This team is packing it in, and I’m downgrading the entire offense.
What we learned: That the Chiefs D has some serious heart. The Chiefs had no business being in this game and they hung in to the very end. That has nothing to do with Fantasy football, but you just have to take a moment to appreciate GREAT effort. It helps punctuate lackluster efforts, like, say, by Dwayne Bowe on his alligator-armed “attempt” to catch #WayInOverHisHeadButStillGuttingItOut Tyler Palko’s final pass off the game. Announcer Chris Collinsworth nailed it on the head when he called Dwayne Bowes effort “pretty lame”.
What we think we learned: While the Chiefs played up to their opponent, the Steelers played down to theirs. What is it with Steelers and Ravens? They only get up for the big games. Maybe they should just play each other every week. (Every single one of you is nodding your head right now).
You have my permission to bench Rashard Mendenhall if you have other options on your bench. He’s no better than a low RB2 right now, and in 10 team leagues he’s a RB2/3.
I think Kyle Orton slides right into this Chief offense and starts putting up numbers quickly, helping everybody on the team out. Watch his first game back carefully. There just might be a clue that helps you win come playoff time.
What we learned: Brandon Jacobs is a shell of what he used to be. It’s shocking. He has no burst, and most of all he’s timid- a word one would have never thought to be associated with the bruising back. Maybe it is all the injuries and changes on the offensive line, but Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks are missing the psychic chemistry they displayed so dominantly last season. That said, it’s clear defenses are scheming around taking Nicks away, leaving Victor Cruz open for big play after big play.
What we think we learned: Jimmy Graham was the best player on the field. Period. He is now entering air so rarified, only the Swiss are allowed to breathe it. Giddy about drafting Graham in the 3rd round next year? He may be gone before then.
Cruz is no fluke. He is a fixture on the fantasy scene at this point and for years to come. However, we are seeing the best season he’ll have in his career. He is on pace for about 1400 YDs and 12 TDs. Next year, the defenses game plan for Cruz, they way they focus on Nicks now.
One note before I go: In my Week 7 column we introduced the SAKO trend. This week the Saints painted their SAKO Starry Night on Monday Night. Yes I know the expression is painted their Mona Lisa. But, come one, Starry Night blows the androgynous old bird away. But I digress. The Saints and Packers will be playing in the NFC championship game this year. You go ahead right that down in pen. When that magical event occurs (and we got a teaser preview in Week 1), we will be witnessing the NFL’s future: Deadly accurate QBs, with supernatural field awareness; a fleet of speedy, long-armed WRs; a collection of RBs with different specializations used much like a bullpen utilizes specialists in baseball; an other-worldly athlete at TE and a defense built to pin back its ears and rush the QB while playing with a lead. The future has arrived, and it’s spectacular. Mammas don’t let your babies grow up to be cornerbacks.
If this is your first time checking out my column I encourage you to go back and read the previous weeks. It will give you a greater sense of trends. Also, you can leave comments making fun of my wrong predictions. Always good times. See you next week!
The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.