The Chiefs come off a spirited defensive effort in a loss against a Steelers team that appeared bored the whole night, while the Bears will return home after getting beat by the Raiders in Oakland, thanks in no small part to the offensive turnovers.

Like a Kardashian marriage, the Tyler Palko era in Kansas City is about to come to a quick and merciful end after the Chiefs were awarded Kyle Orton via waivers.  Don’t get me wrong; Todd Haley hasn’t seen the writing on the wall yet, as the Chiefs not scoring a touchdown in two whole games Palko has played in and the fact that he’s thrown more interceptions than he has games left in the season (six INTs vs. five games left) isn’t enough for Haley since he’s announced that Palko will start this week against the Bears.  My guess is the Palko leash is at least down to its last link though, so if he struggles again he’ll get replaced by Orton… in fact, mark it down; Haley gets smart after Palko throws another weak-armed INT in the first half and pulls him for Orton who actually shows Haley what a real QB is supposed to look like, getting the ball down the field to playmakers like Dwayne Bowe.

For the Bears, the Caleb Hanie era started out poorly, just not Palko-poorly as he was able to throw two TDs to go with his three INTs.  The game was close though, and I do get the feeling that Cutler would have been the difference between a win and a loss for the Bears.  Cutler is also the difference between Earl Bennett being a borderline every week starter and being as worthless as the Bears receivers have been most of the year; Hanie barely looked Bennett’s way and he ended up with only a single catch.  It was obvious that Hanie preferred Johnny Knox, as Knox had his best game of the year by far.  As long as Hanie plays, Knox is probably a decent speculative start.

Apparently no Cutler also means Matt Forte has to share the all almost evenly with Marion “TD Vulture” Barber, as Barber got nearly as many carries as Forte did, and actually had a better yards per carry average.  Forte owners shouldn’t be alarmed for now and should feel fine starting him against the 26^th ranked rush defense in the league; but if this 50/50 time share continues this week as well, owners should start wringing their hands a little bit with the fantasy playoffs looming.

Good Start: WR Dwayne Bowe, RB Matt Forte, WR Johnny Knox

Middle of the Road:  WR Steve Breaston, QB Caleb Hanie, RB Marion Barber

Bad Start:  QB Tyler Palko, All Chiefs RBs, WR Jonathan Baldwin, WR Roy Williams, WR Earl Bennett
 

Tennessee at Buffalo

The Titans come off a home victory over the Buccaneers to keep their playoff hopes alive and travel to Buffalo to play a Bills team that has been reeling, losing four straight, including losing to the Jets twice in that span, and looking like they’re taking the express elevator to the cellar of the AFC East.

Chris Johnson continues the trend of victimizing the soft run defenses he’s played against, and then promptly curling up into the fetal position when he faces a defense ranked in the upper 2/3rds of the league.  Luckily for his owners, CJ1K draws the Bills this week, who rank a mediocre 21^st in the league in stopping the run.  Look for Johnson to continue his trend of good games against bad defenses, as he should be good for over 100 yards and a score.

It was a good thing Johnson had such a good game against the Bucs, as Matt Hasselbeck wasn’t much help throwing for only 160 yards with a single touchdown against two interceptions.  The last couple of games Hass hasn’t looked so great, and might still give way to rookie Jake Locker later in the season if he’s not able to spark the passing game like he was doing earlier in the year.

The Bills gave the Jets a ride last week, giving them all they could handle before finally losing the game late in the fourth quarter.  Ryan Fitzpatrick looked better than he has since the first three weeks of the season, passing for three scores against a defense that doesn’t give up that many.  In fact, he could have gotten one more if Stevie Johnson had just hung on to the football.  Work on your hands more than making fun of Plaxico Burress shooting himself in a night club a few years ago, Stevie.  With Fred Jackson now out for the season with a leg injury, the Bills turned to CJ Spiller as well as the passing game; look for this trend to continue with Fitzpatrick airing it out more than he had been when Jackson was around to take the rushing load.

This is a game that could go either way, as both teams have problems they’re working to sort out.  The Bills play tough at home, and I think that could be difference in this game.

Good Start:  RB Chris Johnson, WR Damian Williams, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Steve Johnson, TE Scott Chandler

Middle of the Road:  QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Nate Washington, TE Jared Cook, RB CJ Spiller, WR David Nelson

Bad Start:  RB Javon Ringer, WR Lavelle Hawkins, RB Johnny White, WR Brad Smith
 

Baltimore at Cleveland

Lambs to the slaughter, lambs to the slaughter… that’s what we’re looking at here with the tough and gritty Ravens playing against the Browns that couldn’t move the ball anyhow even if they were playing against a defense not anywhere near as good as the one they’ll be playing this week.  The Ravens out-defensed the 49ers on Thanksgiving last week, and should have no problems laying the smack down all over the Browns in their own stadium. 

The Browns did give a game to the Bengals, and then promptly gave the game away in the waning minutes, which they seem to be very adept at doing.
For the Browns to be able to have any semblance of success in this game, they’re going to have to be able to run the ball effectively to keep the Ravens from teeing off on Colt McCoy.  This will be easier said than done, considering the Ravens rank 3^rd in the league in rush defense (91.5 yards per game) while the Browns rank a dismal 29^th in rush offense (96.8 yards per game).  Not exactly a recipe for resounding success in that department.  In fact, the Browns might not have much success in the passing game either, as they rank only 24^th in that category and the Ravens rank 5^th defending the pass.  All in all, this looks like it’ll shape up to be a pretty rough outing for McCoy and company.

Ray Rice had a fairly rough game against the 49ers, which was to be expected with two of the better defenses in the league duking it out.  This week Rice owners get a gimme, as the Browns are a terrible 29^th in the league in defending the run; they’re so bad in fact, teams don’t feel the need to throw on them, which explains the phantom #1 ranking the Browns have in pass defense.  I’m guessing if Joe Flacco really wanted to throw the ball on the Browns, he could; it’s just that Rice will have so much success slicing and dicing the soft underbelly of the Browns front seven that Flacco will probably only have to throw 25 passes or less to get the job done.

Just because the Browns are the top pass defense in terms of yardage against, doesn’t mean Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin won’t have some success.  In fact, Flacco will likely throw at least one touchdown pass, and that could just as easily go to Smith on a deep route or to Boldin or even Ed Dickson over the middle.  This game looks like it’ll probably be laugher… at least a laugher for the Ravens, probably not so much for Colt McCoy and the beating he’s about to sustain.

Good Start:  RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin

Middle of the Road:  WR Greg Little, QB Joe Flacco, WR Torrey Smith, TE Ed Dickson

Bad Start:  QB Colt McCoy, RB Peyton Hillis, WR Josh Cribbs, TE Ben Watson, RB Ricky Williams, TE Dennis Pitta
 

St. Louis at San Francisco

Oh no… what an unfortunate matchup for those poor, poor Rams.  St. Louis can’t move the ball against teams like the Browns or the Cardinals; what do you think will happen on the road against a motivated 49ers defense?  Sam Bradford would have better luck digging out of Candlestick Park with a rusty teaspoon then he will actually scoring enough points on the 49ers to grab a win.  I’m still not entirely sure how the Rams beat the Saints; the more I watch both teams play, the more puzzled I get.  The Rams come off a bad loss to a Cardinals team that was a one trick pony… all they did was hand the ball off the Beanie Wells over and over again, and that was more than enough to get a win.  The 49ers come off a loss in the Harbaugh Bowl on Thanksgiving, and Jim is probably looking to punish someone for losing out on the family bragging rights… don’t stand on the tracks when the train’s coming through.  Unfortunately for these Rams, they’re not just standing on the tracks; someone tied them down crotch first toward the locomotive.

The Rams will try to establish the running game with Steven Jackson, and unfortunately that’s exactly what the 49ers will expect and will load up the box to stop him.  Bradford hasn’t shown the capability to beat anyone this season, so the 49ers can probably just man up against the receivers and win most of the battles.  The only time that won’t work is if Bradford can find Brandon Lloyd, which he usually does between 6-8 times per game.  The 49ers won’t sweat that, as 6-8 catches by Lloyd isn’t going to win any games if the other receivers can’t combine to get more than that.  Lloyd is obviously the only decent start here, and even that is borderline; if you have other options for Jackson, you should use them.

For the 49ers, they’ll also establish the run early, which is about as easy as clubbing a baby seal when you’re talking about running on the Rams.  This could very well be the best game of the year for Frank Gore; the only real worry for Gore owners is that the 49ers won’t actually need him to roll up a ton of yardage to beat the Rams, and Kendall Hunter will split more often than he normally would.  Both Gore and Hunter should be good plays here, so if you need a flex, you could probably do a lot worse than rolling with Hunter this week.

Unfortunately for the 49ers passing game, they probably won’t be needed much.  In fact, it wouldn’t be all that surprising for Alex Smith to throw for less than 25 passes and 200 yards or less; which means this stands to be more of a mediocre game for Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, though you’d be hard-pressed to not start them due to the soft matchup.  Both Crabtree and Davis should still get up into the double digits for points, but don’t expect world-beating numbers.  In the end this will probably be a laugher of a game, but more of the 23-6 ilk than a higher scoring affair.

Good Start:  RB Frank Gore, RB Kendall Hunter, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis

Middle of the Road:  RB Steven Jackson

Bad Start:  All other Rams, WR Braylon Edwards
 

Detroit at New Orleans

After writing about a bunch of games that look like the types that make me want to gouge my eyes out with soup ladle (see: Rams vs. 49ers, Ravens vs. Browns, Cowboys vs. Cardinals) we get to a game that should at least offer up some entertaining fantasy goodness to make all the painful matchups this weekend go away.  The Lions come off a tough loss at the hands of the Packers, which served as a litmus test to show that they’re not quite ready to run with the big boys.  This will probably end up with a similar result against the Saints, as New Orleans took the Giants to the woodshed and beat the stuffing straight out of them in the bayou.  Now with the Lions in town, the Saints are busy drilling new holes in their derriere paddles for higher velocity and harder smack.
One thing’s for sure, Matthew Stafford cannot afford to get off to another slow start.  For two weeks in a row now, Stafford has looked bad in the first half, throwing interceptions as if he were a long lost brother in the Rivers family.  Luckily for the Lions they were playing against a Panthers team that couldn’t stop anyone when Stafford first dribbled out of the gate, so the Lions were able to get right back in the game and take it in a high scoring affair.  Last week Stafford didn’t get away with the slow start, as the Packers banged them around and embarrassed them on their own Thanksgiving gig.  If Stafford throws early picks, Drew Brees will make him pay the same way Aaron Rodgers did.

New Orleans will come out with the throttle down as they usually do, trying to put the Lions back on their heels early as that plays right into the hands of the type of defense they play, which is pin their ears back and bring the house on repeated blitzes.  Look for Brees to get the ball to his favorite matchup nightmare Jimmy Graham early and often, and since Marques Colston had a fairly quiet game, it would be no surprise to see him get one or even two TD scores from Brees.  And of course since Devery Henderson actually got more targets and catches than he had in a month, he should disappear right on schedule, and I’ll predict a long bomb completion to Robert Meachem this week, since he got shut out against the Giants.  That’s just the way the Saints roll; the only real constants are Graham, Colston, and Darren Sproles… everyone else is a crapshoot.

The Saints running duo of Sproles and Pierre Thomas have been thoroughly underappreciated in fantasy circles this year, and both should have very lineup worthy stat lines this week as well.  If the Saints get up big again at home, this could even be another good game for Mark Ingram like it was last week.  The Lions will also try to get their running game going, but with Kevin Smith probably missing this game, it’ll be down to Maurice Morris who should get some decent points in PPR leagues with his catches, but otherwise isn’t very inspiring.

Good Start:  QB Drew Brees, RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Brandon Pettigrew

Middle of the Road:  RB Pierre Thomas, WR Lance Moore, WR Robert Meachem, RB Maurice Morris, WR Nate Burleson

Bad Start:  RB Mark Ingram, WR Devery Henderson, WR Titus Young, TE Tony Scheffler
 

San Diego at Jacksonville

In week that has some stink-worthy matchups, it’s only fitting we get this overripe matchup between two teams that were officially done with hope during the past two weeks.  The Chargers come off of their sixth straight loss, which equals the longest losing streak for any team this year not named the Indianapolis Colts.  The streak defies logic in a lot of ways, since the Chargers are one of the more talented teams in the league.  Is Philip Rivers playing hurt?  Has he lost his mojo?  Is Antonio Gates too old, fat, and injury prone?  Is Vincent Jackson only caring to show up for half the games while he bides his time to what he thinks will be a big pay day?  Is Norv Turner overdue for the unemployment line?  All of those questions are valid, and to some degree probably play into the downward spiral of what was once a promising Chargers season.

The Jags on the other hand have been a mess right from the get go.  They released David Garrard right from the start of the season, put in Blaine Gabbert, then installed an offense that was as exciting as plain Greek yogurt; you know the type in the dairy aisle, it’s devoid of flavor, except for a tartness that leaves a frown on your face wondering “why the hell am I eating plain freakin’ yogurt???”  Well, Jags fans have to wonder no more, as the plain freakin’ yogurt that is Jack Del Rio and his wonderfully exciting “run, run, throw a 3 yard out, punt” offense was sent packing when the ownership changed hands.  Thank goodness… it’s not like interim head coach Mel Tucker will be any worse, and hey, maybe Gabbert will actually throw for more than 150 yards in a game!

The Chargers will be coming into this game facing the unknown of the new coaching staff; but one thing that won’t change is the Jaguars play good enough defense to keep most scores low, which means Philip Rivers is likely to have less than stellar passing numbers, including a couple of his 2011 trademark interceptions.  I’m not sure if Rivers suddenly developed a case of color blindness, but he has thrown 17 INTs against only 16 TDs, and he has lost four fumbles to boot.  This is just the type of game Rivers can give away, as the Jags will probably be motivated on the national stage to show that maybe they just needed a little change to right their ship.  If the Chargers lose this game to drop to 4-8 on the year, one has to wonder if some long-overdue change will be coming for Norv and his crew as well.

For the Chargers other offensive weapons, this is an odd week game, so Vincent Jackson should actually show up and play well.  Mark it down… after monster games in Weeks 9 and 11 Jackson followed those up with stinkers, so this being Week 13 we’re looking to cash in on the V-Jax roller coaster.  Of course, Week 14, when many fantasy playoffs start, Jackson should be on schedule to disappear along with his owner’s chances of advancing in the post season.  Gates on the other hand has been very consistent since he’s been healthy; usually between 50 and 70 yards, along with a touchdown in most contests.  No reason to think he can’t get those numbers in this game, but it’s just too bad 70 yards or so seems to be his ceiling these days.

One constant for the Jaguars has been the play of Maurice Jones-Drew.  The dude just keeps chugging along, collecting over 100 total yards in 7 of 11 contests and averaging a score every other game or so.  This with defenses dedicating almost all of their effort to stopping him, since no one fears a 300 and 3 game from the likes of Gabbert, unless you get to total three game stat lines together… and you’d still have to round up.  The Jaguars will probably continue to feed Jones-Drew with the new coaching staff and play calling, but don’t be surprised if they get a little chippy and take a few shots deep; Gabbert has proven in college he has the arm for it, it’s just that Del Rio seems to have a severe allergic reaction to passing the football.  No matter, it’s a new day and a new way for the Jaguars… hopefully, for all of our sakes who are going to punish ourselves by watching this game.

Good Start:  WR Vincent Jackson, TE Antonio Gates, RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Middle of the Road:  QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Mathews, WR Vincent Brown, TE Marcedes Lewis

Bad Start:  RB Mike Tolbert, WR Malcom Floyd (if he plays), QB Blaine Gabbert, WR Jason Hill, WR Mike Thomas

Carolina at Tampa Bay

The Panthers did what everybody does and beat the Colts while the Bucs lost a smash-mouth game to the Titans.
 
There was actually a DeAngelo Williams sighting, as he scored twice and gained 69 yards. Jonathan Stewart had 70 yards on 10 carries. Cam Newton was pretty lousy throwing the ball, with 208 yards and no scores, but he picked up another rushing TD. He’s still a No. 1 QB, obviously.
 
LeGarrette Blount is really the only Buccaneer you can start with any confidence on a regular basis, showing he is completely recovered from his knee injury by gaining 103 yards rushing and adding another 56 yards receiving. But Josh Freeman has clearly regressed and no Tampa Bay receiver has been consistent enough to be able to start with any confidence.
 
Not that you’d think about it this week, anyway. Actually, this has all the makings of a quickly played, run-dominated game because both rushing defenses are so terrible. The Buccaneers are giving up an average of 140 YPG on the ground, while the Panthers are just as bad, allowing 138 YPG. The Panthers have surrendered 15 rushing scores while Tampa Bay has allowed 13. Those totals are, respectively, the worst and second-worst in the league. Their passing defenses aren’t a whole lot better, but this one looks like a ground-and-pound game all the way.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Cam Newton, RB Jonathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo Williams, RB LeGarrette Blount
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: WR Steve Smith
 
BAD STARTS: QB Josh Freeman and any Buccaneer receiver – they are just not trustworthy, especially this time of season.
 

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The Bengals gutted one out against Cleveland while the Steelers sleepwalked through the Kansas City game and barely came out with the win.
 
Andy Dalton had a pretty good day against the No. 1 pass defense, throwing for 270 yards and a TD. Cedric Benson did as he almost always does against the Browns, running for 106 yards and a TD. A.J. Green shook off his matchup with Joe Haden to the tune of 110 yards on 3 catches, but Dalton’s TD pass went to Jermaine Gresham, who finished with 5 catches for 68 yards.
 
As you would expect when an offense only puts up 13 points, there weren’t a lot of stellar Fantasy performances on the Pittsburgh end. Ben Roethlisberger had 193 yards, a TD and a pick, while Rashard Mendenhall managed only 57 yards on 17 carries. Antonio Brown continues to be Roethlisberger’s most reliable target, with 4 catches for 81 yards. Mike Wallace had a dud, however, with only 17 yards on 2 catches. After being scorching hot from Weeks 2-7, Wallace has scored only once in his last four and has only hit 70 yards once.
 
Benson has had a hot hand, scoring three times in his last two, but since he joined the Bengals in 2008 he has averaged only 44 YPG and scored twice. And that is across a span of six games, so that is a pretty decent sample size. With the game in Pittsburgh, you might want to look in another direction. Andy Dalton threw for 2 TDs and 170 yards in his first game against the Steelers, and with Troy Polamalu uncertain, and the Steeler linebacking corps still battling injuries, Dalton could be a decent play if you have injury issues at quarterback.
 
As far as the Steelers are concerned, it’s hard to bet against Roethlisberger at home, and you’ve got to think Wallace will bust out of his funk sooner or later. This is a high stakes game, and I’m betting that he does it this week. The Bengals have done a 180 on defense this season, but they’ve still allowed 10 rushing scores. That makes Mendenhall a good play even though he has not had a very good season, cracking the 100-yard mark only once even though he’s scored 6 TDs.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Antonio Brown, WR Mike Wallace
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: QB Andy Dalton, WR A.J. Green, TE Jermaine Gresham
 
BAD STARTS: RB Cedric Benson
 

Atlanta at Houston

The Falcons dispatched the Vikings while the Texans won their game against Jacksonville but lost another quarterback in the process.
 
Matt Leinart was just the latest victim for this obscenely injury-ravaged team. Enter third-stringer T.J. Yates, who finished with an understandably meager 70 yards and no TDs. The Texans brought in Jake Delhomme, ostensibly to back Yates up, but we all know the Delhomme will be inserted as soon as he absorbs the offense and Yates has trouble. Delhomme shouldn’t see much action if any this week unless Yates is hurt or puts up a performance much like Delhomme himself did in his infamous six-turnover (5 INTs, one fumble) playoff debacle against the Cardinals.
 
The Falcons don’t really warrant a whole lot of space since you know what they’re all about. It is worth noting, however, that Matt Ryan continued his torrid pace against Minnesota. His 3 TDs brought his total in his last four games to 10, during which he has averaged 301 YPG. That’s about as strong as it gets unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady.
 
However, as good as Ryan as been, you may want to temper your expectations a bit against Houston’s very good defense. The Texans are surrendering only 175 YPG through the air and have allowed the second-fewest (11) passing TDs in the league. You can’t say Ryan won’t be a good start, but the indications are he’ll trend more toward just being OK rather than being fantastic. I can’t bring myself to putting him in the “middle of the road” category even though all signs point toward that. As a result, ratchet your expectations down a tick for both Roddy White and Julio Jones as well. Jones is especially risky because he’s obviously not fully recovered from his latest hamstring problem. I wouldn’t touch him unless I had no other options, especially considering he had not practiced as of mid-week. Michael Turner is a must-start, but Houston has also been pretty stingy on the ground, giving up 93 YPG and 6 scores.
 
Logic dictates the Texans should run the ball, oh, 50 or 60 times in this game. I’m just kidding, obviously, but you know they’re going to make running their biggest priority. The obvious problem is that Atlanta knows that as well, and the Falcons have a strong run defense (84 YPG, 7 TDs). The upside is that not only Arian Foster, but Ben Tate as well should get a lot of rushing attempts. That makes them a good start, of course, but remember they are going up against a very strong unit. While Atlanta has only a middling pass defense, (246 YPG, 15 TDs), with Yates under center can you trust Andre Johnson?
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, RB Arian Foster, RB Ben Tate
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: WR Roddy White, WR Andre Johnson, TE Tony Gonzalez, TE Owen Daniels
 
BAD STARTS: QBT.J. Yates, WR Julio Jones
 

NY Jets at Washington

The Jets shaved the Bills while the Redskins had a fairly impressive win in Seattle.
 
Mark Sanchez is getting no love from his home crowd, but if you ran him last week you definitely loved him, as he threw for 4 TDs although he managed only 180 yards. You have to wonder if Shonn Greene has any shot at returning to the Jets next season. Against one of the worst run defenses in the league (Buffalo has allowed 124 YPG and 12 TDs), Greene only came up with 78 yards on 13 carries. Considering the opposition, that’s a huge disappointment – especially if you started him. Dustin Keller scored twice, seeing the end zone for the first time since Week 2, and Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes scored as well.
 
It was the Roy Helu show for Washington as the rookie ran for 108 yards and a TD and added 54 yards on 7 receptions. You probably picked him up a few weeks ago after Tim Hightower went on IR, only to see no production. And now that you dropped him, the guy has a great day. No, I’m not bitter. Anyway, Rex Grossman quietly had a really good day, throwing for 314 yards and 2 TDs. You’ll excuse two picks with that kind of production. In his return from a hand injury, Santana Moss had 4 catches for 29 yards.
 
Don’t look for a repeat performance from Grossman this week, as the Jets are still playing for their season and they allow only 204 YPG. Also, they have allowed the second-fewest passing TDs in the league (11-tied with Houston and Cleveland). But it doesn’t look like Sanchez will do much damage either, as the Redskins are allowing only 213 YPG and have given up only 13 TDs. A lot of players look like they’ll be middling at best in this one – going off of 12 weeks worth of statistics, at least.
 
GOOD STARTS: RB Roy Helu, WR Plaxico Burress
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: QB Mark Sanchez, QB Rex Grossman, WR Santana Moss, WR Santonio Holmes
 
BAD STARTS:RB Shonn Greene
 

Indianapolis at New England

The Patriots basically decimated Philadelphia’s playoff hopes in dominating fashion, while, uh, the Colts lost.
 
Just about everybody had in on the fun for the Patriots against the Eagles. Tom Brady (363 yards, 3 TDs) and Wes Welker (115 yards, 2 TDs) continue to be the banes of my Fantasy existence, but this week Deion Branch (6 catches, 125 yards) also had stud-like numbers. Even BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a big Fantasy day, scoring twice even though he only had 44 yards rushing.
 
The Colts are awful.
 
Do not be surprised if Tom Brady has a game like he did in the snow against Tennessee a couple of years back when the Pats hung 59 on the Titans. You remember, right? He had 380 yards and 6 TDs. If you have to go against him, or your playoff fate depends on the Brady owner in your league losing (both scenarios apply in my case), the best you can hope for is that Bill Belichick will show mercy and pull Brady at halftime after he’s thrown for 327 yards and 4 TDs. Yeah, right… when has Belichick ever shown mercy on anyone – particularly the Colts?
 
Uh… the Colts suck. The Patriots are lousy against the pass, but do you think the new starter, Dan Orlovsky, will be able to take advantage? Me neither.
 
GOOD STARTS: All Patriots
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: None
 
BAD STARTS: All Colts
 

Oakland at Miami

 

The Raiders snuck one out against the Bears thanks to Sebastian Janikowski, while the Dolphins played strong yet again but lost a tough one to the Cowboys.
 
Carson Palmer had 301 yards passing, but did not throw for a TD and also added an interception. Michael Bush continues to haunt those who drafted Darren McFadden and did not get Bush as well. Even though he only had 69 yards on 24 carries, he still scored. Marcel Reece had 5 catches for 92 yards against Chicago, astounding totals for a fullback. You can probably view this performance as an anomaly, but he did have 3 catches for 51 yards against the Broncos in Week 9. And with Denarius Moore, Darius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford all nursing injuries, Palmer may have to check down to Reece quite a bit this week.
 
Are we ready to consider Matt Moore a viable Fantasy starter? He had another solid game, with 288 yards and a TD against Dallas. He has 3 TDs in two of his last four games, after all. Reggie Bush did not see the end zone against the Cowboys but he had 16 rushing attempts (for 61 yards) compared to only 6 for rookie Daniel Thomas. He clearly seems to be the main running back in Miami. Brandon Marshall had one of the catches of the year, scoring a TD even though Terence Newman was apparently trying to strangle him. Aside from his mysterious 1-catch, 5-yard disappearing act against Buffalo, Marshall has been strong the last month, with two 100-yard games, a 98-yarder, and two TDs. More importantly, he’s averaging 9 targets a game. He and Moore have quickly established a chemistry that is making Marshall a very viable Fantasy wideout.
 
Taken at face value, it’s easy to say Miami’s pass defense is lousy, giving up 248 yards and 16 TDs on the season. However, in their last four games the Dolphins have allowed an average of only 226 passing yards and 2 total TDs, and both of those came to Tony Romo last week. Granted, Eli Manning torched them for 349 yards and 2 scores in Week 8, and Carson Palmer is definitely better than Rex Grossman and Matt Cassel, two of the QBs shut down by Miami recently. However, the Dolphins throttled Ryan Fitzpatrick (209/0), who has been up and down but overall has been pretty good. The point of all this is that while you will start Palmer, don’t automatically pencil him in for 300 yards and a couple of TDs. Not only have the Dolphins been playing much better on defense lately, Palmer’s receiving corps is dinged considerably.
 
You’ve got to like Moore’s chances of posting solid numbers when you consider the fact that the Raiders allowed Caleb Hanie to hit them for 254 yards and 2 TDs – in Oakland. With this game in Miami, it would not be farfetched to see Moore meeting those numbers and possibly even exceeding them. On the season, Oakland has allowed 20 passing TDs and 240 YPG. Bush looks like a good start as well, since Oakland has allowed 10 TDs and an average of 135 YPG on the ground.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Carson Palmer, QB Matt Moore, RB Michael Bush, RB Reggie Bush, WR Brandon Marshall, TE Anthony Fasano
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: WR Devone Bess
 
BAD STARTS: Any Raider wide receiver unless you get confirmation he’s playing and is fully healthy, RB Daniel Thomas
 

Denver at Minnesota

 

Denver rode continued great defensive play and Tim Tebow to a road win in San Diego, while the Vikings’ comeback came up short in Atlanta.
 
By now you know what to expect from Tebow – halfway decent passing numbers at best and pretty solid rushing numbers. Put them together and you have what has been a pretty reliable Fantasy starter. And if you’ve ridden him this long, there’s no reason to stop this week. Willis McGahee stormed back to relevance against the Chargers, rushing for 117 yards. Eric Decker had 3 catches for 65 yards and a score, but the Bronco receivers other than Decker continue to be an absolute crapshoot.
 
Christian Ponder had 186 yards and a TD against the Falcons, but Toby Gerhart was stymied by the tough Atlanta run D. He had a TD, but managed only 44 yards on 17 carries. As of this writing, Adrian Peterson still had not practiced but there was hope at least that he would be able to give it a go against Denver.
 
The Bronco pass defense has come alive in the last three weeks. After Carson Palmer torched them in Week 9 to the tune of 332 yards and 3 TDs, Denver has held Kansas City, the Jets and San Diego to an average of 178 YPG and allowed only 2 passing TDs. And that, obviously, includes a strong performance against Philip Rivers, giving up just 188 yards and a TD. So even though he is playing at home, Christian Ponder will likely struggle – not that you were going to start him anyway, even in a deep league. The Bronco run D was just gashed for 137 yards by Ryan Mathews, however, so they’re still susceptible to a good rushing attack. If Peterson can go, he should be big.
 
Tebow might even have some good passing numbers because the Viking pass D has been terrible, allowing an average of 258 YPG and a league-worst 22 TDs. And it definitely doesn’t help that DB Antoine Winfield just went on IR. Against the run they’ve been in the middle of the pack, giving up 100 YPG and 8 TDs.
 
GOOD STARTS: QB Tim Tebow, RB Willis McGahee, RB Adrian Peterson (assuming he can go, of course), WR Eric Decker
 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STARTS: WR Percy Harvin
 
BAD STARTS: QB Christian Ponder, any other Bronco WR besides Decker

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