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Week 15 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
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Contributed by:
Jared Dang
Last Updated: Dec 13, 2011 10:36 AM |
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Pickups of the Week
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (9.6 percent)Week 13 stats: 4 rec, 144 yards, 2 TDs, 7 Targets
Week 14 stats: 7 rec, 78 yards, 1 TD, 13 Targets
With a quarterback as inconsistent as Tim Tebow, it's hard to recommend Thomas after a single week of production. But do it two times in a row and now fantasy owners know he is legitimate. As Tebow's preferred target in scramble mode, the Broncos 2010 1st round pick's value should be quite high going against a Patriots defense that is dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. Consider Thomas to be a low-to-mid #2 WR for week 15.
Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (34.4 percent)Week 14 stats: 6 rec, 92 yards, 1 TD, 9 Targets
Over the past three weeks no teams has been burned worse against the pass than the NY Giants and Rex Grossman feasts on easy match-ups. CB Aaron Ross will most likely match-up with Santana Moss, which should leave Gaffney open for a few downfield bombs. Then again, there's always a slight possibility that Grossman throws for multiple interceptions, but as one of Grossman's preferred targets, Gaffney should be fine.
Joel Dreessen, TE, Texans (0.8 percent owned in ESPN Standard 10-Man Leagues)Week 12 stats: 1 rec, 20 yards, 1 TD, 1 Target
Week 13 stats: 1 rec, 3 yards, 1 TD, 1 Target
Week 14 stats: 3 rec, 22 yards, 1 TD, 3 Targets
He's the #2 tight end on his team and he's scored in three straight games and also has infuriated Owen Daniels owners all year long. Considering how thin most waiver-wires are at this point in the season, former Fred Davis owners could do worse.
Seahawks D/ST (51.3 percent)The Seahawks have put together five straight solid fantasy performances in a row and will face a Caleb Hanie led Bears offense in week 15. The same Caleb Hanie led offense that put up three points against the Chiefs. Yeah, the Chiefs.
Tennessee D/ST (16.5 percent)Dan Orlovsky is not as good as he showed against the Patriots and neither is he as bad as he showed against the Ravens. Still, it's Dan Orlovsky and Tennessee will bounce back from the drubbing that Drew Brees served them on Sunday.
Speaking of Defenses
In the preseason, it makes little sense to spend a high draft pick on a defense for two reasons: 1. Nobody knows how well that defense is going to play and 2. Nobody knows how well their opponents will play. But at this point in the season, it's clear which offenses struggle to put points up on the board (Indianapolis, St. Louis, Chicago, etc) and which ones should be avoided at all costs (Green Bay, New England). The real test comes when deciding between a defense with a tough matchup (Texans vs. Carolina) and a middle of the pack defense with a favorable matchup (Tennessee vs. Indianapolis). I say give me the guaranteed points every time, and would play the Tennessee D/ST over the Texans D/ST.
Tier 1: Must-Play Fantasy D/ST Opponents
| Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Indianapolis | Tennessee | Houston | Jacksonville |
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | San Francisco |
| Chicago | Seattle | Green Bay | Minnesota |
Tier 2: Almost Must-Play Fantasy D/ST Opponents
| Kansas City | Green Bay | Oakland | Denver |
| Jacksonville | Atlanta | Tennessee | Indianapolis |
| Cleveland | Arizona | Baltimore | Pittsburgh |
*Teams Bolded are owned in <60% of leagues.
Deeper League, Desperate Plays
Joe Webb, QB, Vikings (0.1 percent)Week 14 stats: 12-23, 84 yards, 1 TD, 7 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD
The Vikings are "Instilling confidence into their franchise quarterback" which is a rough translation for "we would rather lose football games than let Christian Ponder's psyche take a hit." Unfortunately for Joe Webb, his day might never come, even if he is the Vikings best shot at winning. Still, he has had to have earned more playing time right?...Right? He is the definition of a hail-mary play.
Chris Ivory, RB, Saints (0.6 percent)Week 14 stats: 13 carries, 53 yards
The odds that Ivory has of turning in quality stats against Minnesota are only slightly better than Joe Webb's chances of starting at quarterback. Still, anything can happen in football and many didn't think that Marion Barber would produce against a tough Broncos run defense.
Damian Williams, WR, Titans (12.9 percent)Week 14 stats: 2 rec, 62 yards, 10 Targets
Believe it or not the Colts passing defense ranks amongst the league's best against opposing wide receivers over the last few games. That being said if Chris Johnson sucks like only Chris Johnson can, then the Titans will be forced to air it out and Williams could see plenty of targets.
Early Doucet, WR, Cardinals (17.4 percent)Week 14 stats: 3 rec, 73 yards, 4 Targets
Cornerback Joe Haden and at least one safety will be glued to Larry Fitzgerald at all times which could leave Doucet with enough room on the opposite side to make a play or two.
James Jones, WR, Packers (58.4 percent)Week 14 stats: 2 rec, 29 yards, 3 Targets
With news that Greg Jennings will be sidelined at least 2-3 weeks, someone has to fill his spot. Any one of the Packers receivers (Cobb, Driver, Finley) could step up as well, but odds are Jones will see the highest increase in snaps.
How Are They Still Available?
Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys (71.5 percent)Week 14 stats: 16 carries, 106 yards, 6 rec, 31 yards
DeMarco Murray is out for the rest of the season with a fractured right ankle, which means that Jones is the #1 pickup in any leagues where a disgruntled owner dropped him. Jones will end up winning plenty of fantasy leagues considering his next two opponents are the Buccaneers, who are the most forgiving run defense in fantasy and the Eagles who rank 26th against opposing running backs.
Kevin Walter, WR, Texans (12.4 percent)Week 14 stats: 6 rec, 76 yards, 1 TD, 10 Targets
The Carolina Panthers' pass defense is giving up an average of 183 yards to opposing WRs over the last 5 games. Then again, for as bad as the Panthers are against the pass, they are even worse against the run. Arian Foster and Ben Tate could combine for over 40 carries in this one, but when they decide to throw, Walter will convert a high % of those targets and he stands a good chance of finishing with a quality day.
Devin Aromashodu, WR, Vikings (0.5 percent)Week 13 stats: 6 rec, 90 yards, 15 Targets
Week 14 stats: 4 rec, 47 yards, 10 Targets
Just look at those targets over the past two weeks and keep in mind Aromashodu's next opponent is the Saints, who rank 25th against opposing WRs in terms of fantasy points.
Marion Barber, RB, Bears (46.1 percent)Week 13 stats: 14 carries, 44 yards
Week 14 stats: 27 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec, 32 yards
Seattle's run defense is not the monster it was earlier in the season and it's not like Caleb Hanie is going to throw it more than 30 times. Barber should see a similar amount of touches in what should be a tough, gritty, completely horrible game to watch.
Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins (8.5 percent)Week 12 stats: 26-38, 314 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Week 13 stats: 19-46, 221 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
Week 14 stats: 19-32, 252 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
The bust potential is always high with him, but his upside is high as well. He has a top-6 matchup with the Giants next week and he also faces the league's worst pass defense week 16 against the Vikings. Men with greater balls than me might roll the dice with him these next two weeks. Many of those men could easily win their league championships.
Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (59.7 percent)Week 12 stats: 4 rec, 81 yards, 6 Targets
Week 13 stats: 2 rec, 67 yards, 4 Targets, 1 Punt Return TD
Week 14 stats: 5 rec, 151 yards, 1 TD, 8 Targets
Seven straight weeks of at least 67 yards and a touchdown. Five of those weeks have resulted in double digit fantasy weeks for owners. There is not a more consistent, dependable #2 WR.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (63.7 percent)Week 13 stats: 5 rec, 42 yards, 12 Targets
Week 14 stats: 3 rec, 81 yards, 1 TD, 9 Targets
His week 14 stat-line is padded by a 49 yard pass from WR Brandon Banks, but he still receives enough targets to make him a #3 WR against the Giants.
Ben Tate, RB, Texans (78.1 percent)Week 9 (Browns Blowout): 12 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD
Week 10 (Buccaneers Blowout): 13 carries, 63 yards, 1 TD
Week 14 stats: 8 carries, 67 yards
The Carolina run-defense ranks amongst the league's worst and the Texans rank amongst the league's best when it comes to running the football. Tate will see double digit carries in this one and is at the very least, a tremendous flex play.
Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos (86.9 percent)Week 12 stats: 9-18, 143 yards, 1 TD, 22 carries, 67 yards
Week 13 stats: 10-15, 202 yards, 2 TDs, 4 carries, 13 yards, 2-PT conversion
Week 14 stats: 21-40, 236 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 12 carries, 49 yards
Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 299 yards passing against the Patriots, which makes Tebow is a top-10 play this week.
You're Dead to Me, Kinda
(Players who you might not necessarily want to drop, but should if there are more worthy waiver wire prospects available. Some of these guys are good players, but that should not stop you from dropping them for guys with more upside, especially if all they do is ride your bench. Either drop them or trade them, but your bench should be full of high upside players. For example, I'm not saying you should drop Santonio Holmes, but if a player like Felix Jones is available and your team could use a running back, then the right decision would be to drop him.
New to the list: Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Santonio Holmes (tough week 15 matchup against Asomugha), Dwayne Bowe...basically any slightly underperforming player that would wind up on your bench and wouldn't get started by your opponents these next few weeks.
In no particular order: Matt Forte, Jahvid Best, Sidney Rice, Daniel Thomas, Fred Jackson, Fred Davis, Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, Miles Austin, Matt Schaub, Mike Tolbert, Owen Daniels, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Peyton Hillis, Joe Flacco, Brandon Pettigrew, Ryan Fitzpatrick, James Starks, Knowshon Moreno, Deion Branch, Ryan Torain, Dallas Clark, LaDainian Tomlinson, Dustin Keller, Jermichael Finley, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Matt Hasselbeck, Marcedes Lewis, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams, Kevin Kolb, Chad Ochocinco, Malcom Floyd, Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Danny Woodhead, Donald Driver, Matt Cassel, Austin Collie, Kellen Winslow, Lee Evans, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Hines Ward (forever and always), Zach Miller, Cadillac Williams, Jerome Harrison, and Devin Hester.
In no particular order: Matt Forte, Jahvid Best, Sidney Rice, Daniel Thomas, Fred Jackson, Fred Davis, Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, Miles Austin, Matt Schaub, Mike Tolbert, Owen Daniels, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Peyton Hillis, Joe Flacco, Brandon Pettigrew, Ryan Fitzpatrick, James Starks, Knowshon Moreno, Deion Branch, Ryan Torain, Dallas Clark, LaDainian Tomlinson, Dustin Keller, Jermichael Finley, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Matt Hasselbeck, Marcedes Lewis, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams, Kevin Kolb, Chad Ochocinco, Malcom Floyd, Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Danny Woodhead, Donald Driver, Matt Cassel, Austin Collie, Kellen Winslow, Lee Evans, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Hines Ward (forever and always), Zach Miller, Cadillac Williams, Jerome Harrison, and Devin Hester.
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