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Week 16 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
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Contributed by:
Jared Dang
Last Updated: Dec 20, 2011 11:41 AM |
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Pickups of the Week
Lance Ball, RB, Broncos (2.6 percent)Week 15 stats: 11 rec, 64 yards, 1 TD
If Willis McGahee's hamstring forces him to sit out a game, the Broncos will have no qualms giving Ball a heavy workload. The Broncos week 16 opponent (Bills) just allowed 203 yards to Reggie Bush. What's the over/under on the amount they give up to Denver, 250 yards?
Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins (5.0 percent owned in ESPN standard 10-Man Leagues)Week 15 stats: 10-20, 217 yards, 2 TDs
Moore has thrown 11 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions over the last 7 games and faces a Patriots pass defense with more holes in it than a pair of socks from a state prison. He's as consistent as they come and should finish with borderline #1 QB numbers.
Kahlil Bell, RB, Bears (1.3 percent)Week 15 stats: 15 carries, 65 yards, 5 rec, 43 yards, 1 TD
Marion Barber's late game calamities have lost too many games for the Bears and they have moved on to the younger, more agile Bell. His pass-catching ability will no doubt come in handy against the Packers next week.
Kyle Orton, QB, Chiefs (15.0 percent)Week 15 stats: 23-31, 299 yards
Kyle Orton and the Packer's pass defense have something in common: Both of them are better than the media gives them credit for. That being said the Raiders pass defense is nowhere near as good as the Packers' and Orton should continue to rack up high yardage numbers and also throw for a touchdown or two this week. The Raiders allow the 27th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and are coming off a loss in which Matthew Stafford threw for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Brent Celek, TE, Eagles (25.2 percent)Celek has been inconsistent at best, but those in need of tight end help should look no further. The Dallas Cowboys (week 16 opponent) allow the 25th most points to opposing tight ends and Celek is the Eagles highest targeted receiver over the last two games.
Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (68.0 percent)Week 15 stats: 3 rec, 73 yards, 6 Targets
In leagues where Keller was dropped, fantasy owners would be wise to block their opponents from picking him up, even if they already have a starting tight end. The Giants have given up 89 fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing tight ends over the last seven games. No tight end has a better match-up this week than Keller.
Steve Breaston, WR, Chiefs (25.0 percent)Week 15 stats: 4 rec, 50 yards, 6 Targets, 1 carry, 25 yards
Arguably the most under-appreciated quarterback in the game, in his first start with the Chiefs Kyle Orton moved the ball with ease. With Dwayne Bowe drawing extra defensive attention on Sunday, Breaston led all Chiefs receivers with 6 targets. He could see another productive day against a weak Oakland pass defense that was torn up by Matthew Stafford on Sunday. His match-up week 17 against Denver is favorable as well.
Denver D/ST (15.6 percent)Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Tom Brady. In fact, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't even the same Ryan Fitzpatrick from the beginning of the season. The Broncos D/ST may have been unprepared for the shellacking Patriots offense would hand them, but Fitzpatrick poses nowhere near the same kind of threat that Brady did. He's thrown 2 touchdowns to 5 interceptions over the last couple games.
Speaking of Defenses
In the preseason, it makes little sense to spend a high draft pick on a defense for two reasons: 1. Nobody knows how well that defense is going to play and 2. Nobody knows how well their opponents will play. But at this point in the season, it's clear which offenses struggle to put points up on the board (St. Louis, Chicago) and which ones should be avoided at all costs (Green Bay, New England). The real test comes when deciding between a reliable defense with a tough matchup (Bears vs. Packers) and a middle of the pack defense with a favorable matchup (Denver vs. Buffalo). I say give me the guaranteed points every time, and would play the Broncos D/ST over the Bears D/ST.
Tier 1: Must-Play Fantasy D/ST Opponents
| Team | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | San Francisco |
| Chicago | Green Bay | Minnesota |
Sure, Minnesota (5.5 percent) is one of the worst defenses in the league, but keep in mind that every single defense that has gone up against Caleb Hanie has scored at least double digit fantasy points (standard scoring). If Oakland D/ST and Kansas City D/ST can score in the double digits, then Minnesota's should be fine.
Tier 2: Almost Must-Play Fantasy D/ST Opponents | Indianapolis | Houston | Jacksonville |
| Buffalo | Denver | New England |
| Cleveland | Baltimore | Pittsburgh |
| Cardinals | Cincinnati | Seattle |
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | Atlanta |
*Teams Bolded are owned in <60% of leagues.
Deeper League, Desperate Plays
Donte Stallworth, WR, Redskins (0.2 percent)Week 14 stats: 4 rec, 96 yards, 6 Targets
Week 15 stats: 2 rec, 35 yards, 3 Targets
Drew Brees may be a great quarterback, but what he did against the Minnesota pass defense (412 yards, 5 TDs) is more indicative of the problems the Minnesota secondary is dealing with rather than a testament to Brees' greatness. In week 14, the Redskins faced a Patriots D/ST that is almost as bad as Minnesota's and Stallworth finished with decent stats. He could easily put up similar numbers against Minnesota.
Ben Tate, RB, Texans (78.8 percent)Week 15 stats: 7 carries, 26 yards
In the 7 games in which Tate has received at least 10 carries, he has reached double digit fantasy points in 5 of them. Odds are he reaches that 10 carry mark again. The Colts are riding a one-game winning streak but they are still one of the league's worst teams and give up the 30th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals (1.4 percent)Week 13 stats: 6 rec, 111 yards, 11 Targets
Week 14 stats: 2 rec, 8 yards, 1 TD, 5 Targets
Week 15 stats: 6 rec, 60 yards, 1 TD, 10 Targets
Roberts has picked up the production over the last few games and the Cincinnati pass defense has been horrible ever since Leon Hall was injured in week 10. Larry Fitzgerald will most likely be double-teamed, leaving both Roberts and Early Doucet (15.4 percent) open on the opposite side of the field.
Joel Dreessen, TE, Texans (1.1 percent)Week 13 stats: 1 rec, 3 yards, 1 TD, 1 Target
Week 14 stats: 3 rec, 22 yards, 1 TD, 3 Targets
Week 15 stats: 2 rec, 19 yards, 4 Targets
3 touchdowns out of the last four games for Dreessen who at this point is nothing more than a goal-line threat for T.J. Yates. That being said, the Indianapolis Colts have allowed 258 yards in the last three games to opposing tight ends and have allowed relatively big days to lower profile tight ends Dennis Pitta (3 rec, 29 yards, 1 TD) and Jared Cook (9 rec, 103 yards) in that span.
How Are They Still Available?
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos (32.6 percent)Week 13 stats: 4 rec, 144 yards, 2 TDs, 7 Targets
Week 14 stats: 7 rec, 78 yards, 1 TD, 13 Targets
Week 15 stats: 7 rec, 116 yards, 13 Targets
Thomas is officially Tim Tebow's #1 target and should be started regardless of opponent. He's a low end #1 WR for the rest of the season (@Buf, vs. KC).
Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (48.4 percent)Week 14 stats: 6 rec, 92 yards, 1 TD, 9 Targets
Week 15 stats: 6 rec, 85 yards, 9 Targets
Gaffney is easily Rex Grossman's favorite target and should end up with at least 80 yards and is a good bet to score a touchdown against Minnesota.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (70.7 percent)
Week 13 stats: 5 rec, 42 yards, 12 Targets
Week 14 stats: 3 rec, 81 yards, 1 TD, 9 Targets
Week 15 stats: 2 rec, 40 yards, 1 TD, 5 Targets
Moss is no longer the #1 wide receiver in Washington when it comes to targets and receptions. That title belongs to Jabar Gaffney, but nonetheless Moss has scored in back-to-back games and that streak should continue against Minnesota. Yes, every Redskins receiver is worth a flier.
Gaffney is easily Rex Grossman's favorite target and should end up with at least 80 yards and is a good bet to score a touchdown against Minnesota.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (70.7 percent)Week 13 stats: 5 rec, 42 yards, 12 Targets
Week 14 stats: 3 rec, 81 yards, 1 TD, 9 Targets
Week 15 stats: 2 rec, 40 yards, 1 TD, 5 Targets
Moss is no longer the #1 wide receiver in Washington when it comes to targets and receptions. That title belongs to Jabar Gaffney, but nonetheless Moss has scored in back-to-back games and that streak should continue against Minnesota. Yes, every Redskins receiver is worth a flier.
Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins (13.5 percent)Week 13 stats: 19-46, 221 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
Week 14 stats: 19-32, 252 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Week 15 stats: 15-24, 185 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Three reasons why Grossman will be throwing often against Minnesota:
1. Roy Helu is dealing with toe and knee injuries
2. Minnesota's run defense allows only 3.8 yards per carry.
3. Minnesota is starting second and third stringers in the secondary and just gave up 412 yards and 5 touchdowns to Drew Brees.
Washington's wide receivers will be wide open on Sunday and the Redskins have no incentive to push Helu to see how healthy he is.
Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (71.3 percent)Week 13 stats: 2 rec, 67 yards, 4 Targets, 1 Punt Return TD
Week 14 stats: 5 rec, 151 yards, 1 TD, 8 Targets
Week 15 stats: 5 rec, 59 yards, 9 Targets
The St. Louis Rams give up the 28th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers which is good news for Brown owners, assuming they survived his 59 yard week. It was only a matter of time before Brown had a disappointing day, but fantasy owners can't get too mad at a player that has produced for seven weeks in a row.
Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (67.8 percent)Week 13 stats: 4 rec, 108 yards, 1 TD, 4 Targets
Week 14 stats: 2 rec, 29 yards, 2 Targets
Week 15 stats: 5 rec, 96 yards, 1 TD, 6 Targets
Floyd has reached at least 96 yards in four of his last six games. He's also caught three touchdowns in that span and the Detroit pass defense has been pathetic as of late. He is a solid #2 WR.
You're Dead to Me, Kinda
(Yes, It's okay to drop Darren McFadden, he's not coming back. Matter of fact, any player that would wind up on your bench and wouldn't get started by your opponents over these next couple of weeks can be tossed to the waivers. So really, the list below is much longer, and it really depends on the size of your league.)
In no particular order: Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Santonio Holmes, Matt Forte, Jahvid Best, Sidney Rice, Daniel Thomas, Fred Jackson, Fred Davis, Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Mike Tolbert, Owen Daniels, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Peyton Hillis, Joe Flacco, Brandon Pettigrew, Ryan Fitzpatrick, James Starks, Knowshon Moreno, Deion Branch, Ryan Torain, Dallas Clark, LaDainian Tomlinson, rmichael Finley, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Matt Hasselbeck, Marcedes Lewis, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams, Kevin Kolb, Chad Ochocinco, Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Danny Woodhead, Donald Driver, Matt Cassel, Austin Collie, Kellen Winslow, Lee Evans, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Hines Ward (forever and always), Zach Miller, Cadillac Williams, Jerome Harrison, and Devin Hester.
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The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.
