Fantasy owners can breathe a sigh of relief for this one, as the Patriots still have something to play for, so Brady and company should be at full strength for at least most of this contest.  With a win the Patriots will lock up the #1 seed in the AFC, so look for Tom Brady to keep the throttle down.  On a side note, Brady still has a shot at the single season passing record (which Drew Brees holds after last week’s games) if Brees is rested for all or most of the Saints’ Week 17 game.  Brady’s a gamer, so look for him to take his best shot at the record, which should mean a very nice effort for his fantasy owners still playing at this point in the season.

With the Patriots sporting the league’s worst defense, giving up over 400 yards per game, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very good substitute this week for those Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees owners who might be out their quarterback during the most important week in the season for those particular leagues.  Fitzpatrick was great to start the season, had a prolonged period in the middle of the season where he was quite horrific, but has since leveled out and been decent for fantasy purposes the last couple of games.  This should be his best game in the past month or two, so if you need him, this shouldn’t be a week where he hurts your chances.

Another player who’s a great play this week is CJ Spiller.  Spiller has been very good the past few weeks since taking over for the injured Fred Jackson, and has to have played his way into consideration for the starting RB role in 2012.  He’s especially good in PPR leagues, as he’s averaging four receptions per game since taking over for Jackson.  Spiller had his two best games the last two weeks, going against the Dolphins and Broncos, both of which are leagues better on defense than the Patriots.  Look for the Bills to get the ball to Spiller early and often, especially as they try to keep Brady off the field.

Speaking of Brady, his regular weapons should be available for fantasy use and are very strong plays against an almost equally moribund Bills defense.  Rob Gronkowski is running neck and neck with the Saints Jimmy Graham for top TE honors, but with his team still needing a win, look for the Gronk to push ahead in this race.  Wes Welker should also build on his record setting season, as the Bills just have no answers in the secondary for him.  Secondary targets like Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch could also be decent plays.  If you have to take a shot at a Patriots running back, think about Stevan Ridley, who could get a lot of work at the end of the game to close out the Bills if the Patriots are up by a few scores.
 
Good Start:  QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB CJ Spiller, WR Steve Johnson
Middle of the Road: RB Stevan Ridley, WR Deion Branch, TE Aaron Hernandez, WR David Nelson
Bad Start:  RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis, WR Chad Ochocinco, All the rest of the Bills


  Alas, if both these teams had won last week instead of lost, this game could have had big playoff implications.  Now, these two teams are simply playing for pride and for draft position, as either could end up as high as 10^th or as low as 19^th in the draft.  More important than draft position though, both teams would like to win this game to end the year at 8-8, while showing promise for next season.

For the Seahawks, they finally found themselves an identity over the second half of the season, morphing into a team that runs the ball first and foremost, uses an effective play action passing game to keep defenses honest, while playing excellent defense.  Centered in that identity is Marshawn Lynch, who has been the hottest running back over the last half of the year.  He’s scored in 11 straight games, and has had over 100 total yards in 7 of those games.  Against the Cardinals with nothing to play for but pride, Lynch is a better play than most running backs in the league, especially those that might rest due to the upcoming playoffs.

The Cardinals on the other hand have won despite not having their new franchise quarterback, Kevin Kolb, for much of their run at the end of the season.  In a lot of ways, backup QB John Skelton has been more effective, winning more games than Kolb (5 vs. 2), and being a more useful signal caller for fantasy purposes, specifically when it comes to making use of Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitz’s best two games of the year have come with Skelton under center, so as long as Skelton is starting, Fitzgerald is a very strong play.

As an undrafted rookie free agent, Doug Baldwin has been the leading receiver for the Seahawks, which is quite unbelievable considering they started the year with the seemingly solid tandem of Sidney Rice and Mike Williams.  Baldwin has been excellent at times this year, and Tavaris Jackson trusts him on important downs to move the chains.  Look for Baldwin to close out the year with another good outing, so if you need a good WR3, Baldwin could very well be your guy.
 
Good Start: RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Doug Baldwin, WR Larry Fitzgerald
Middle of the Road:  QB Tavaris Jackson, WR Golden Tate, QB John Skelton, RB Beanie Wells, WR Early Doucet
Bad Start:  WR Ben Obomanu, TE Zach Miller, WR Andre Roberts
  And here’s another contest where the two teams should be fighting to the bitter end, with the Raiders still alive in the playoff hunt, and the Chargers eager to play the role of spoiler.  The Raiders still need a Chiefs win over the Broncos or a bevy of other wins/losses to occur to get in, but if the Raiders don’t take care of business and win in their own stadium, all those other scenarios are for naught.

Because this is a “win or go home” scenario, the Raiders should be hungry for one of their best performances of the year, and going against a Chargers defense that was just eviscerated by the Lions a week ago, their chances of at least holding serve and keeping their playoff hopes alive is actually pretty good.  Carson Palmer has been very good at times and terrible during others, throwing 11 TDs in the roughly half year of work he’s gotten under center for the Raiders.  Unfortunately, he’s also thrown 15 INTs, including 3 or more interceptions in three separate games.  Raiders fans have to take the good with the bad though, as Palmer has kept the Raiders afloat and did get a huge win last week in overtime against the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

Palmer isn’t the only Raiders player that has had to step up in the face of injury; Michael Bush likewise ascended to the top of the depth chart after an injury to starting RB Darren McFadden.  McFadden hasn’t played since mid season, and Bush has more than proven his worth during that time.  Bush has grinded out over 90 total yards in all but one game this year as a starter, and has scored in four of his last seven games.  The Chargers have been weak on defense, especially on the road, so look for another solid outing from Bush in the season finale.

Philip Rivers and company no longer have anything to play for; other than spoiling the postseason hopes of their Northern California rivals.  With the coaching staff considered a lame duck group, expect no punches to be pulled, so Rivers, Gates, Floyd, Jackson (if he plays) and Ryan Mathews are all good plays if you need them.
 
Good Start:  RB Michael Bush, WR Denarius Moore, QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Mathews, WR Malcom Floyd, TE Antonio Gates
Middle of the Road:  QB Carson Palmer, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Vincent Jackson (if he plays), RB Mike Tolbert
Bad Start:  TE Kevin Boss, WR Vincent Brown
  This game promises to be one of the more entertaining of the week; not only does it have huge playoff implications for the AFC West, but it also represents the battle of Kyle Orton against the anointed one, Tim Tebow.  Orton was kicked to the curb several weeks ago to pave the way for the Tebow ascension, and I’m sure Orton would like nothing more but to end the Broncos’ playoff hopes and show them that maybe they gave up on him a little too early.  The Chiefs have been playing better, especially on defense, and with the extra motivation of ending the Broncos post season bid the Chiefs should have no issues with putting forth their best effort of the season.

The pressure is definitely on Tebow for this one; he’s already revered by Broncos fans, but all the Tebow love is bound to come to a crashing halt if he fails to beat Orton and fails to bring the post season back to Denver after a prolonged drought.  Because of those expectations, and the fact that Tebow tends to rise to the occasion when he’s needed most, I’d look for Tebow to have at least a decent fantasy outing, with about 250 total yards and a couple of scores.  That would make Tebow and excellent substitution for those fantasy owners that have QBs that are destined for the bench in Week 17 to prepare for the playoffs.

Orton has shown that he can be a dangerous passer in the right situation; that situation probably isn’t with the Chiefs though, as Kansas City is starting to lean more toward being a defensive squad that relies on the running game as much as possible to keep the score down and keep the Chiefs close.  Even though that’s the normal game plan, I’d be surprised if Romeo Crennel didn’t give Orton a little bit of leeway to succeed in the passing game, so a couple of passing scores certainly isn’t out of the question.  If Orton does manage to get a couple of scores, a good bet for at least one of them would be Dwayne Bowe.  Champ Bailey has been fading the last few weeks, so the strong and athletic Bowe should be able to take advantage of the situation.

This game may end up to which team can run the ball better and with the most consistency, and if that’s the case, the Broncos should win this one.  Willis McGahee and Tebow both are better than anything the Chiefs are trotting out at running back, and with how effective they’ve been look for the Broncos to finally wear the Chiefs down and win a close game, and in the 4^th quarter, of course.
 
Good Start:  WR Dwayne Bowe, QB Tim Tebow, RB Willis McGahee, WR Demaryius Thomas
Middle of the Road:  QB Kyle Orton, RB Dexter McCluster, WR Steve Breaston
Bad Start:  RB Thomas Jones, WR Jon Baldwin, WR Eric Decker
  Even though the Falcons got annihilated by the Saints on Monday Night Football last week, Atlanta fans everywhere can breathe a sigh of relief as the Falcons still qualified for a post-season birth due to losses by the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Bears.  Unfortunately for the Falcons, they’ve looked less than solid this season, and their inconsistency could lead to an early ending to their playoff dreams if they don’t find a way to score reliably and stop the opposing team with consistency.  This week against a reeling Buccaneers team is the perfect time for them to get a final dress rehearsal in and bury a team they should beat by at least two scores.

No team has fallen as far or as fast as the Buccaneers between last year and this year; yes, the Colts have been worse but hey, they lost Peyton Manning.  The Bucs returned most of the team from their 10-6 season last year, and yet they’ve fallen to 4-11 and will likely get their 12^th loss of the year this week.  Apparently, having the youngest roster in the league didn’t matter that much against an easier schedule last year, but there were signs that struggles could be in the books for the young Bucs, as they weren’t able to beat any opponents last year that had a winning record.  This year, those problems were exposed as the Bucs still couldn’t beat good teams, and their schedule included a lot more of those better squads.
For this game, all of the fantasy value lies on the Falcons side of the ball, as Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzalez are all worthy of a fantasy play.  If you have those starting Falcons, now’s the time to make sure they’re in your lineup if you haven’t been starting them regularly already.

On the Bucs side of the ball, you could probably make an argument for Kellen Winslow if you’re hurting for a tight end in TE mandatory leagues, and you might be able to get away with Legarrette Blount if you’re confident the Bucs can hang around long enough for Blount to maybe squeeze in a score in the first half.  Ultimately, this will probably end up a blowout for the Falcons, which would render the entire Buccaneers running attack moot.
 
Good Start:  QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones, TE Tony Gonzalez
Middle of the Road:  RB Legarrette Blount, TE Kellen Winslow
Bad Start:  WR Harry Douglas, QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams
  This contest features major playoff implications for both teams, so if you regularly use key players on either of these teams, this is still a decent week to use them even though both defenses have been good this year.  The Ravens come into Cincinnati needing a win to secure the #2 seed and a bye into the second round; this is of the utmost importance because the Ravens have been noticeably worse on the road than at home, and having the #2 seed means they’re guaranteed to not have to go on the road until the AFC Championship, if at all.  If they lose, they open the door not only for their hated Steelers rivals to get the bye, but they almost certainly have to win three road games in a row to make it to the Super Bowl, when they’ve only won three road games all year.

The Bengals actually are in the driver’s seat for the #6 seed in the AFC, which is unbelievable when you think about what all the experts were saying about them during training camp.  While having a winning record is great and all for this young up-and-coming team, getting into the post-season has to be the goal after starting out the season on fire.  Andy Dalton has not played like a rookie most of the time, but has slowed down noticeably during the second half of the season, which can probably be attributed to hitting the “rookie wall”.  One player who hasn’t hit that wall is AJ Green, who even as Dalton struggles, continues to get his numbers against almost any defense in the league.  These two are going to be good together for a long time.

For the Ravens, they will continue their reliance on Ray Rice to get the job done, along with their stout defense to keep the scoring to a minimum.  If the Ravens allow the Bengals to score three touchdowns in this one, they probably lose, so look for the Ravens defense to be at the top of their game this week.  The Ravens passing game is hurting however, with Anquan Boldin out this week to rest his knee in preparation for the playoffs.  This leaves Torrey Smith and Ed Dickson to pick up the slack, and both are fine plays this week should you need them.

Cedric Benson was a worthwhile play last time he faced the Ravens; he only rushed for around 40 yards, but he did get two touchdowns.  While Benson scoring twice is again on the Ravens is probably unlikely, he is one of the league leaders in carries inside the 10 yard line, so he’s worth a play at least as a Flex if not a low end RB2 just based on that scoring potential.
 
Good Start:  RB Ray Rice, WR Torrey Smith, WR AJ Green, WR Jerome Simpson
Middle of the Road:  QB Joe Flacco, TE Ed Dickson, QB Andy Dalton, RB Cedric Benson, TE Jermaine Gresham
Bad Start:  WR Lee Evans, TE Dennis Pitta, WR Andre Caldwell
  With divisional rival Baltimore tied up with a scrappy Bengals team that needs a win to secure a playoff spot, the Steelers have to feel fairly good about their chances of stealing the division here at the end of the season.  One thing is for sure, if the Steelers lose this game, they also lose out on any chance for the #2 seed and a much needed bye week to get healthy.  For the Browns, this game doesn’t matter much except for draft position as well as a chance to help decide who wins their division.

Charlie Batch played last week for the injured Ben Roethlisberger, and predictably the Steelers had no problems at all dispatching a sorry Rams team.  With so much riding on this game and with the Ravens playing a very losable game on the road against the Bengals, look for Big Ben to not only play in this game, but to play well enough in the first half that the Steelers jump out to a big early lead.  This is the dream scenario for Mike Tomlin, as it would allow him to rest Roethlisberger in the second half of the game, as planned.  This of course would a nightmare for anyone who starts Big Ben in fantasy football, because he may not do enough damage in a half worth of action to help anyone win a championship.  While normally Roethlisberger would be a pretty good start here, even against Cleveland’s #1 ranked pass defense, he doesn’t come highly recommended at all this week due to the danger of him sitting in the second half of the game.

One person who does still come highly recommended this week for the Steelers is Rashard Mendenhall.  While Mendy hasn’t been impressive this year at all, and only had 70+ yards the last time he faced the Browns, this week the Steelers will probably rely on the running game as much as possible to not only protect Ben’s injured foot, but also to get this game over as quickly as possible to get to the post season.  Look for at least one score this week from Mendenhall, as well as decent yardage approaching 100 total yards.

The passing game is where the Steelers are bound to suffer if they do decide to sit Roethlisberger in the second half of the game.  Both Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are still decent plays though, since one or both is still likely to rack up good yardage and possibly a score with the Steelers trying to get this one over as quickly as possible.

For the Browns, not much here worth looking at in the final week, but with Seneca Wallace playing well the last couple of weeks, you could probably make a case for Greg Little as a WR3/Flex play this week.  Peyton Hillis has also had a couple of strong games recently, but it would be hard to trust him against what has been the #1 defense against the run so far this year.  Still, he’s bound to get enough work to make at least a Middle of the Road play.
 
Good Start:  RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Wallace, WR Antonio Brown
Middle of the Road:  QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Peyton Hillis, WR Greg Little
Bad Start:  WR Hines Ward, TE Heath Miller, QB Seneca Wallace, WR Josh Cribbs



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