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Fantasy Football Preview: NFL Divisional Playoffs

Contributed by: Jason Stolberg
Last Updated: Jan 13, 2012 2:14 AM

New Orleans @ San Francisco These two teams have seemingly been on a collision course since a few weeks before the playoffs began, when they were fighting for the #2 seed, the first week bye, and the all important home game in this round of the playoffs. If the Saints had won the #2 seed, theres no way the 49ers would be able to stop the Saints

New Orleans @ San Francisco
These two teams have seemingly been on a collision course since a few weeks before the playoffs began, when they were fighting for the #2 seed, the first week bye, and the all important home game in this round of the playoffs.  If the Saints had won the #2 seed, there’s no way the 49ers would be able to stop the Saints scoring machine in the comfy confines of the Superdome; on the road though, the Saints haven’t been nearly as good.  The Saints offense has scored 40 touchdowns when at home, but almost half that (22) while on the road.  Because of that reduced road effectiveness, the Saints are brought down a little closer to the 49ers level, which makes this game intriguing.


One thing’s for sure, the 49ers didn’t have any kind of a letdown down the stretch, winning their last three games to stay one game up on the Saints for the #2 seed.  As much as the Saints win with their offense, the 49ers stifle opponents with a defense that ranked 1stagainst the rush, and 16thagainst the pass.  So while we don’t expect the Saints to have a whole lot of luck running the ball, at least the one weakness the 49ers have exhibited is against the pass.  Their ranking could have been worse, but their final three games were against a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger, an ineffective Tavaris Jackson, and journeyman backup Kellen Clemens.  The last time they played against a halfway effective QB was in Week 14 against the Cardinals, and John Skelton lit them up for 282 yards and 3 TDs.  Drew Brees should have no trouble duplicating those numbers, and fantasy owners should expect a number north of 300 for the perennial Pro Bowler.

If Brees is in for a fairly typical stat line, that means favorite receiving targets Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, and Darren Sproles should all be very useful in the game.  You can even make another case for Robert Meachem, who has seemingly come on in the playoffs, posting his first 100 yard receiving game since early in the year.  What you’ll want to avoid is the rest of the Saints running game, as Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory will each find it to be tough sledding against a defense that only allowed one 100 yard rusher and 3 rushing touchdowns all year long.

For the 49ers, this will probably be a decent game passing for Alex Smith, mostly out of necessity to score enough points to beat the high octane Saints.  250 yards and a couple of scores are not out of the question, with the main beneficiaries being Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.  Frank Gore will also probably have a decent game, but if the 49ers fall behind early, that will limit his fantasy value.
 
Good Start: QB Drew Brees, RB Darren Sproles, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, WR Michael Crabtree, TE Vernon Davis
Middle of the Road:  WR Robert Meachem, QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore
Bad Start:  RB Pierre Thomas, RB Chris Ivory, WR Devery Henderson, RB Kendall Hunter
 
Denver @ New England
The legend of Tim Tebow continues to grow, as he once again pulled off a last minute heroic victory, this time against the favored and much more experienced Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Tebow threw a dagger in OT, an 80 yard strike to Demaryius Thomas, that got everyone talking about a possible Super Bowl run.  Too bad for Tebow, he’ll have to pull another rabbit out of his hat and outduel one of the NFL’s premier magicians, Tom Brady.  I would actually pick Tebow to win if they drew the Ravens this week instead, but I just can’t see them pulling off a victory against the playoff savvy Patriots at Foxboro.

With the win against the Steelers, win or lose, Tebow has bought himself a lot of good will with both the Broncos faithful and the NFL fans at large.  Even if he plays extremely poorly this week, that throw in OT will be talked about all off-season.  What was even more remarkable was that Tebow posted over 300 yards passing against one of the better defenses in the league, when he hadn’t achieved that feat ever before against much lesser opponents.  Now he draws arguably the worst passing defense in the league this year, so if he can re-create that effort, the Broncos stand at least a puncher’s chance of pulling a shocking upset.

Luckily for the Patriots, Tom Brady isn’t the type of QB to get caught up in the moment and Tebow or no Tebow, Brady will get his numbers and at least put his team in position to win this game handedly.  For that reason alone, Brady makes for probably the second best start this week at the position (1stbeing Aaron Rodgers), as he’ll probably be at least a lock for 300 and 3 scores, if not higher.  If Brady gets to that threshold, the game should be his, and Tebow will just have to live off the good feelings from the Wildcard round for the rest of the year.

As for the rest of the Patriots, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski are obvious good plays, while Aaron Hernandez is another solid start and even BenJarvus Green-Ellis is possible sneaky play if the Patriots try to grind the ball later in the contest once they have the lead.
 
Good Start:  QB Tim Tebow, WR Demaryius Thomas, QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE Aaron Hernandez
Middle of the Road: RB Willis McGahee, RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis, WR Deion Branch
Bad Start:  WR Eddie Royal, TE Daniel Fells, RB Stevan Ridley, WR Chad Ochocinco
 
Houston @ Baltimore
Of all the games this weekend, this one seems to be the least intriguing and the least likely to produce a very competitive game.  If this game were happening in Houston, the Texans would have more of a chance with Baltimore’s uneven play on the road.  However, the Ravens have been very much a lights-out team when at home, and they’re about to flip the switch on the Texans’ best season in franchise history.

While TJ Yates hasn’t been all that great fantasy-wise, it does help that he now has Andre Johnson back, as it was obvious Johnson’s presence helped the young signal caller.  Yates looked Johnson’s way early and often, with Johnson receiving well over half the total yards in the passing game and gathering in the lone touchdown.  For that reason, AJ is still a good start, even though he’s going up against one of the most formidable defenses in the league this year.

For the Ravens, the time off certainly did them some good as it allowed them to rest starting WR Anquan Boldin, who should be ready to roll for this game.  While Boldin hasn’t always been the model of healthy consistency, he is the type of big strong receiver that can hurt the Texans with his physical play and precise route running.  What helps Boldin’s case each week is the fact that rookie Torrey Smith has been coming on, morphing from just a deep threat to a more complete receiver that is a danger to take it to the house on any given play.  Both of these receiving options do make Joe Flacco a possible play for fantasy purposes, but only if you’re not able to grab the four or five other QBs that have better all season long and have more favorable matchups.  Who is probably the top RB play this week is none other than Ray Rice, who has been dominate all season long.  He along with Arian Foster for the Texans are probably the strongest RB plays of the week, but the nod goes to Rice because well… he isn’t playing the Ravens defense at home.
 
Good Start: RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, RB Ray Rice, WR Torrey Smith
Middle of the Road:  QB Joe Flacco,WR Anquan Boldin, TE Ed Dickson
Bad Start:  QB TJ Yates, WR Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels, WR Lee Evans, TE Dennis Pitta
 
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
In terms of offensive production, this is probably the marquee game of the weekend with the potent Giants visiting the even more potent Packers.  This is a rematch of the December 4thgame in which the Packers won 38-35, which included a couple of controversial calls that went Green Bay’s way.  The Giants have probably been chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Packers, and now that chance is upon them.  It will be much tougher to try to pull the upset at Lambeau Field however, as the Packers are nearly perfect there in the playoffs.  This will be the first playoff game in a while at Lambeau, as last year’s Packers had to make their Super Bowl run on the road as a wildcard team.

If there’s one quarterback in the playoffs that won’t shy away from the bright lights and big stage in a matchup against Aaron Rodgers, it’s Eli Manning.  Manning is no stranger to the 4thquarter comeback himself, and it was only a few short years ago that he led the Giants to a win against a similarly potent offensive machine in the Super Bowl; namely Tom Brady and the up to then undefeated New England Patriots.  The Packers are every bit as potent as those Patriots were, and this game is certainly not on neutral territory, but Manning has the experience and track record to pull this off if conditions are right.

For conditions to be right though, the Giants front four led by Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul will have to get consistent pressure on Rodgers and force the Packers off the field enough to avoid having their mediocre secondary exposed by a Rodgers passing onslaught.  As long as the Packers can hold Rodgers to around 280-300 yards passing and 3 scores or less, the Giants will have a chance; if Rodgers racks up more than that, the Giants likely won’t be able to keep up.

For fantasy purposes, most everyone at each skill position is worth a fantasy start, beginning with Rodgers and Manning.  On the Packers side of the ball, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley are all worth starts, while Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and even Mario Manningham are worth rolling out.  Basically if you own any of the Packers or Giants receiving threats, start ‘em; if you own either defenses, stay far far away.
 
Good Start:  QB Eli Manning, WR Hakeem Nicks, WR Victor Cruz, WR Mario Manningham, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Greg Jennings, WR Jordy Nelson, TE Jermichael Finley
Middle of the Road:  RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR James Jones, WR Donald Driver
Bad Start:  RB Brandon Jacobs, RB Ryan Grant, RB James Starks

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