and Ian Millman
Last Updated: Aug 24, 2012 2:29 PM
10 Commandments for Winning at Fantasy Football
This is the third in a series of articles geared toward winning at fantasy football. To find more content on useful ways you can win your league, click here
3rdCommandment – Thou Shall Avoid Players from Bad Teams
In Fantasy Football, sometimes real football matters. By that I mean, how a particular player's real NFL team does, often will have a long-term effect on that player's fantasy production. In most cases, the best teams in the NFL (in terms of record) yield some of the best fantasy players. Conversely, the worst teams in the NFL often have few, if any, fantasy stars on their team.
Now there are always exceptions to the rule, but there are underlying forces behind this theory. One of the reasons is that bad teams generally are eliminated from playoff contention early, and will often give different players a shot at playing so they can get a look at them for the next year. For example, if a rookie QB is thrown into the mix at the half-way mark, the WR's production will certainly be hurt. Same goes for any other skill positions, as any shred of continuity they have built is lost.
In addition, with little to play for, players who are hurt are much less likely to play through pain when they have nothing to gain. If a star WR has an ankle sprain, yet his team is 2-8, why bother hurting his long-term value by suiting up in Week 11 or 12? Often you'll see guys shutting it down and having arthro surgeries before the season ends. Of course, if they are in a contract year that goes out the window as greed is a terrific motivator, but you get the point.
So what you want to do when assembling your team, is focus on players from not only the best offenses in the league (as discussed in past articles), but also the best teams. These teams are fighting for playoff spots all the way to Week 17, and players will lay it all on the line, and play hurt every down of every game. These are the types of players you want to load your roster with.
Now this can backfire somewhat, such as the teams that are so good they lock up their playoff spot too early, and can rest guys Week 16 as well as 17. But that is the exception more than the rule, and the reason most league's Championship games are in Week 16 (if yours isn't, change it THIS YEAR).
We always try and build our teams around players on winning teams if at all possible. This does not mean don't draft Trent Richardson , but it does mean if you have a toss up between 2 players, go for the guy with the better team.
Some of the teams that I will look to avoid this year: CLE, BUF, MIA, NYJ, IND, JAX, MIN, OAK, TB, STL, WAS
Teams that we do expect to PLAY well this year and we will target include: NE, NO, ATL, DET, SD, DAL, NYG, PHI, GB, DEN, TEN, HOU
This is a differentlist than the Next GREAT Offenses that will explode, although some teams may be on both lists. This is a list of WINNING teams that we like to get guys from (especially Kickers and Defenses which we'll discuss in later articles).